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Wai Sallas breaks down how the Pac-12 Conference Tournament can affect the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
It's fitting that the Pac-12 is made up of schools within the old frontier. This season, more than ever, the conference tournament is the wild, wild west. Nine schools could put a string of wins together to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth.
Scanning the tournament bracket, the ninth seed (Arizona State) was once ranked third in the country. The 12th seed Cal won just eight games this season, one of those teams was Stanford, the fifth seed. Cal and Stanford meet in the first round on Wednesday.
Ken Pomeroy explains it better.
When the ninth seed has the fifth best odds of winning the entire tournament, and you have six teams with a legitimate chance of winning the tournament, anything is possible.
Editor's Note: Over the next few days, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region will be released shortly.
The Contenders
Arizona Wildcats (24-7, 14-4)
Arizona started the year in some polls ranked first in the nation. The Wildcats then lost three games in a row to start the season and were ousted from the poll all together. They then won 17 of their next 18 games to get back into the top ten, only to lose two straight and move into the teens, where they currently sit. Needless to say it's been an up-and-down year for the Wildcats.
That is not even touching on the FBI scandal that rocked the program less than two weeks ago. Nor its best player being suspended for a game for a tainted drug test.
On the basketball court, Arizona is the best team in the conference. The Wildcats have, arguably, the most talented team in America, and when they play cohesive basketball could very well win the national championship. DeAndre Ayton was the Pac-12 Player of the Year. Potential National Player of the Year and number one draft pick, Allonzo Trier, and Rawle Alkins are lottery picks. It's the huge gaps of offensive and defensive lapses, however, that could be their downfall at any moment along the way.
Sean Miller has yet to make it to the Final Four, and depending on how the mess off the court plays out, might be his last. This team has all the makings to never lose again, it's just a matter if they care enough.
USC (21-10, 12-6)
USC was also a top-ten team when the season began. Just like the Wildcats, the Trojans struggled in non-conference play, losing four out of six in November and December. Just like Arizona, USC was implicated in the FBI Scandal.
Since it's out-of-conference woes, USC has done just enough to garner the number two seed in the NCAA Tournament. That's despite being swept by the Arizona schools and UCLA. The Trojans have the 23rd most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom and have seemed to have no problems replacing Bennie Boatwright. Chimezie Metu has stepped up in Boatwright's absence, playing over 35 minutes in all but one game since the injury. Metu is a problem on the defensive end. He has racked up multiple-block games in more than half of the team's contests this season. Captain Jordan McLaughlin has also stepped up, scoring 19 points in USC's final game of the season.
The Trojans have the ability to win the whole tournament or lose in the quarterfinals to either Washington or Oregon State. There is more at stake, however, that may drive this team. The Trojans are not a lock to make the tournament. A Pac-12 Finals appearance would most likely do the trick.
Utah (19-10, 11-7)
Utah came out nowhere to find itself in the bubble conversation less than a week from Selection Sunday. The Utes lost Kyle Kuzma to the Lakers and were still able to find consistency and take advantage of the thin air in Salt Lake, touting a 13-3 record at home.
Utah does nothing great, but also does nothing bad. They are fundamentally sound and have one of the most underrated players in the entire Pac-12 in Long Beach State transfer Justin Bibbins. Bibbins averages 14.4 points and 4.9 assists per game, playing more than 34 minutes a game. Bibbins has come on as of late, scoring 18 points or more in four of the last seven contests, including a double-double against UCLA in a big home win.
Utah does not have the firepower to keep up with some of the other upper tier programs in the Pac-12, but has proven this year that they can outwork you to earn a win.
UCLA (20-10, 11-7)
Like most years, the Bruins are in every game because they have the ability outscore almost any team in the nation. KenPom has the Bruins rated 20th in offensive efficiency. They led the conference scoring 81.8 points per game and hitting a robust 40 percent from three.
Were it not for Ayton, Aaron Holiday would be the runaway winner for Pac-12 Player of the Year. He leads the conference in scoring (20.2) and is second in assists (5.8). He has the ability to take over games, and head coach Steve Alford gives Holiday the freedom to do that whenever he sees fit. Thomas Welsch is the perfect complementary player who can make a shot from anywhere on the court.
UCLA is the fourth seed and is projected to play Arizona in the semifinals should they get that far. The Bruins are the only team to beat the Wildcats at home this year. Given their penchant for scoring and recent history against the conference's top seed, a lack of confidence will not be a factor.
Arizona State (20-10, 8-10)
It seems like a generation ago that the Sun Devils were ranked third in the nation and a top seed in projected brackets at the end of 2017. ASU's fall has been well-publicized. After starting the season 12-0, ASU lost six out of 10 to fall out of the top 25 and have been unable to find their footing since.
Having said that, the Sun Devils are probably one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament. Guards Tra Holder, Shannon Evans, Kodi Justice and Remy Martin can really get it going. When things are going their way, the momentum can be hard to stop. Head coach Bobby Hurley runs this team much like a mid-major. He employs smaller lineups and tries to create mismatches on the offensive end while minimizing opportunities on the defensive side of the ball.
The Sun Devils could win it all in Vegas and go on a run in the NCAA Tournament or lose their opening game against Colorado and miss the tournament all together. Such is life for Arizona State this year.
The Rest of the Field
Stanford, Oregon, and Washington all have major wins during the conference season that could make them dangerous should the right guys get hot. The Cardinal's Reid Travis is a nightmare down low. Stanford's motor goes when he goes, and he always goes. At one point, Stanford was tops in the Pac-12, and it's not out of the realm of possibilities the Cardinal could find its way to the top once again.
Oregon lost most of its offensive production last year, but still comes into the tournament with some big wins recently. The Ducks are led by Payton Pritchard and New Mexico transfer Elijah Brown. The duo accounted for more than 35% of the team's scoring this season.
Washington has wins over Kansas, Arizona and USC on its resume, which is incredible considering the Huskies lost both their head coach and the number one pick in last year's NBA draft. The Huskies have relied on a collective effort to get the seventh seed. If it wants to get past the first round, it will have to improve on the offensive end. U-Dub ranks near the bottom in shooting percentage (45.7) and is one of the worst teams nationally in assists per game (11.7).
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