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What's up RotoBallers, March Madness is officially here, and RotoBaller l'll be bringing you a full breakdown on the NCAA tournament.
Today I'm here to give you a tournament strategy guide - important things to know before filling out your brackets. There's a good chance that by the time you finish this reading this, your bracket will be busted.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region.
Before we get into the gist of the article, two major notes on the upcoming NCAA tournament.
Firstly, when people say "I had..." Just stop right there. Most people don’t care who you picked or where you had so and so team going.
Second, it's not called March Madness, rather the NCAA tournament. March Madness alludes to the entire month of March which includes the conference tournaments so don’t be that person to ask, 'Who do you have winning March madness?'
A Checklist Before Filling Out Your Bracket
- Vegas knows more than us. Last year, No. 10 seed Wichita State was a six point favorite over No. 7 seed Dayton in the First Round. Now, there's no spread involved when picking a bracket. All you need to do is select a winner. But that line seems strange. How could a lower-seeded team be a six point favorite? Vegas was begging you to take Dayton, because they knew something that the public didn’t know. And, what do you know Wichita State ended up winning by six. Right on the number. This year we have No. 10 seed Butler, minus-1 vs. No. 7 seed Arkansas and No. 6 seed Miami who's only a one-point favorite over No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago. Don't get suckered into the seeds.
- Don't overvalue seeds. The committee makes a ton of mistakes when handing out seeds (mentioned above). Cover the seeds and go matchup-by-matchup and choose who you think the better team is. For example, you may have No. 10 seed Providence losing in the First Round, but they did just beat No. 1 seed Xavier in the Big East semifinals. Hmmmm.
- No. 1's are 132-0 against No. 16's. Don't be that fool to pick a No. 16 seed in the First Round. Although it's great when people take the No. 16 seed, they lose out on an easy point. Every point matters. It can come back to haunt you. Click here if you want a look at all data involving people choosing No. 16 seeds over top seeds.
- Since the NCAA expanded the field from 65 to 68 teams in 2011, one of the First Four teams (not including teams from the lower-tiered conferences) have went on to win their First Round matchup. Their records are 12-14 once in the field of 64. Pretty remarkable. Last year after winning their play-in game, No. 11 USC beat No. 6 SMU, but then lost in the Second Round. Two years ago, No. 11 Wichita State went on to beat No. 6 Arizona in the First Round. Three teams have made it past the first weekend, No. 11 VCU went to the Final Four in 2011, No. 11 Tennessee went to the Sweet 16 in 2014, as did No. 13 La. Salle in 2013. That bodes well for the UCLA, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, or Arizona State this year.
- Teams are entirely different come March than they were in December. Weigh recent games more than a game in December. Also, road games are more valuable than home games. It's one thing to play in front of your raucous home crowd than in a hostile environment.
- Be contrarian. Don't pick the popular teams that everybody else will. If you pick a team that not many other people have to either win the championship or make the Final Four and they do it, then you'll be one of the only people to get those points giving yourself a major advantage.
- And finally, the most important rule, DO NOT TINKER! The more you second-guess yourself, the more you'll regret it. I will fill my bracket out Wednesday evening only once and that will be it. No going back and looking until the brackets lock Thursday at noon.
The Wild Year that was
Last year I listed nine teams that could win the championship. Three of those teams Oregon, Gonzaga, and North Carolina made it to the Final Four and Carolina would beat the Zags in the title. It was a predictable top-heavy year. This year is the opposite.
Since 1996-7, this year has seen the AP top 10 teams lost to unranked opponents 46 times. The second-most was 35 in 2015-6. So I went back and checked the tournament that year to see how many upsets there were. Two double-digit seeded teams made the Sweet 16. All four No. 1 seeds make the Elite Eight. Only one of those would make the Final Four. The other seeds in the Final Four were two No. 2's and a No. 10 Syracuse. Not a wacky tournament. So who really knows what this year will bring?
Does Conference Tournament Success Equal NCAA Tournament Success?
Michigan is the hottest team in the country. They won four games in four days to win the Big 10 championship. Does that mean they will continue their hot streak to the NCAA tournament? I sure don't like have they won't have played a game in 11 days come Thursday.
Fivethirtyeight.com posed this question three years ago. They looked at data dating back from 1985. It's complicated and if you really care to find out the process and how they came to their conclusion, you can read it here. Here is the main point of their findings,
"This analysis does serve as a warning against putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament relative to a team’s entire body of work, especially when it comes to picking unexpectedly hot conference tournament teams to go further than you’d otherwise predict for teams with their résumés."
A prime of example of that happened last year. Duke finished fifth in the ACC regular season with an 11-7 conference record, They went on to win four games in four days winning their conference tournament. But in the NCAA Tournament they lost to No. 7 South Carolina as a No. 2 seed in the Second Round.
There you go. Conference tournaments for the big time conferences mean nothing. They are just another cash grab for the schools.
What's the magic to winning it all?
- A point guard that gets hot can carry a team deep into the tournament, even winning it all. Connecticut won two championships like that with Kemba Walker in 2011 and Shabazz Napier in 2014. Steph Curry carried Davidson to within one shot of the Final Four in 2008.
- A team that has a lot of seniors and returning players from a deep run tournament run a year prior, like Wisconsin last year who upset the No. 1 overall team Villanova in the Second Round?
- "A top-40 offense {Ken Pom offensive efficiency} and a stingy defense," per the Action Network. Which leads me to,
Teams who can win it all
If we're to follow the Action Network's theory; Virginia, Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Michigan St., Cincinnati, Gonzaga, West Virginia, and Ohio St.
What sleeper team has a point guard that can carry them? Florida is the team that stands out most. The Gators are 6-2 vs. AP top-25 teams, tied for most this season. They have three senior guards that can carry them in Chris Chiozza, leading scorer Jalen Hudson, and Egor Koulechov. Let's not forget about Junior guard KeVaughn Allen who led the team last year in scoring. All four average double-digits. This team made the Elite Eight last year losing to South Carolina. They have a top-40 offense, 37, and a stingy defense ranking 25th.
Take out all the metrics and there's about a dozen teams that can do it. Virginia, Michigan St., Villanova, Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Purdue, North Carolina, Ohio St., Arizona, and Kentucky. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a No. 8 or 9 seeds make the Final Four.
One Final Thing...
Before the tournament starts, I hear countless people saying, "I have the perfect bracket." Stop. You don't. If you're one of those delusional people who thinks they filled out a perfect bracket, and goes around telling people that the day before the tournament, you should know this: you have a higher chance of being attacked by a shark, one in 11.5 million, than filling out a perfect bracket, one in 9.2 quintillion.
Good luck to all!
