August 30, 2017

Tyger McGuiggan explains why Green Bay running back Jamaal Williams is overhyped and could be an ADP bust in relation to other RB for 2017 fantasy football drafts.

One of the dirty secrets of football is that the preseason and training camps are actually incredibly boring. For every team that has an interesting quarterback battle like the Browns, there are five teams like The Packers that don’t have much of anything going on. People need to talk about something, so each snap, every bland coach comment, and any veteran player’s new diet is dissected like a Stanley Kubrick film.

Frequently this type of analysis leads to a bunch of hype over some previously unknown prospect. The fantasy community proceeds to go crazy and drafts the prospect higher than they should ever have gone. This is happening as we speak about Green Bay rookie running back Jamaal Williams.

Here is your guide to everything you need to know about the Jamaal Williams fantasy hype train and how you should avoid getting run over by it in your fantasy draft.

What's the Jamaal Williams Hype About?

Starting about two weeks ago, when Ty Montgomery suffered a minor leg injury, the hype really went into overdrive. It rocketed Jamaal Williams from being an undrafted player, to someone taken in the 12th round. Someone who has bought into the hype would generally phrase their argument like this:

“Ty Montgomery has never really been a true running back. He could only take a limited workload last year and the coaches probably won’t trust him to take more snaps this year. Green Bay is looking for alternatives, which is why they drafted three running backs this year. Of those three, Williams has looked the best. He has impressed everyone in training camp and has been taking snaps with the first team. It’s really only a matter of time before Williams supplants Montgomery as the lead back. Even if he doesn’t, he will probably get a substantial amount of carries and will be a great handcuff for Montgomery.”

Of course, this type of view is wrong for a number of reasons.

If the hype is all wrong, then where did it come from?

This is probably the most confusing thing about the whole situation. The hype seemed to have started with reports early in training camp that essentially went, “If anyone was going to maybe possibly have an outside chance to sort of take carries away from Montgomery, that running back would be Williams.” I might be taking some liberties with the headlines, but the truth is that the reports weren’t so much glowing endorsements of Williams as a signal of disappointment in fellow rookie running back Aaron Jones. Since that point Williams has been praised for his pass protection, disappointed in a preseason game while working with the second unit. He got a lot of first team reps due to an injury to Montgomery, but disappointed in his chance to work with the first team in the second preseason game. He then had an impressive showing in the third preseason game as a receiver, but still didn’t accomplish much on the ground. Throughout this entire time, there have been no real signs that Green Bay has any discomfort with Montgomery and have been treating him as the unquestioned starter throughout the preseason. This string of events doesn’t justify the dramatic rise up the draft board that we have seen.

A lot of the hype surrounding Williams seems to be couched in skepticism of Montgomery. People question whether he is a real running back. The coaches have always been confident in Montgomery. They were comfortable enough to let Eddie Lacy walk. The only reason they drafted three running backs is because they literally only had a single running back under contract heading into the draft. Montgomery has always profiled out as more of a running back than wide receiver. Before he was drafted, many scouts and analysts frequently speculated that he would be better off as a running back. He had played running back until he hit high school, where schematic choices forced him to switch positions. He was drafted at a size of 6’1” and 225 pounds, roughly his current weight going into this season. One of his closest comparisons according to MockDraftable.com was David Johnson, the current running back for Arizona. Williams on the other hand is 6’0” and 200 pounds. Green Bay limited the amount of carries they gave Montgomery last year, but he was highly effective with those touches. He has the size and ability to be a three down running who can both catch the ball out of the back field and carry the ball at the goal line. Williams has some talents, but at this moment those talents are more situational. Montgomery just returned from injury and had a nice game in limited work against Denver, rushing the ball three times for 31 yards. This shuts the door on an already concluded decision; Ty Montgomery will be the starter.

Ok, but even if Williams won’t be the starter he can still be somewhat valuable, right?

He isn’t going to have much value at all in 2017. This is where the hype really falls apart. In order for a backup running back to have fantasy value, one of two things must be true. First, he would need to get enough carries and receptions to produce some fantasy value even if starts games on the bench. This just isn’t likely to happen. Jamaal Williams’ primary role is going to be occasionally spelling Ty Montgomery and maybe getting some third down work. He is going to be splitting that backup duty with Aaron Ripkowski. Most distressingly, he is likely to seed all potential goal line work to Ripkowski. Running backs who get 5 touches a game and don’t score touchdowns are not fantasy relevant players. The second way a backup running backs hold fantasy value is if they are in line to receive a large workload if the starter gets hurt. Jamaal Williams is still going to be splitting carries with Ripkowski in the event that Montgomery gets hurt. It also would probably open the door for someone like Aaron Jones to potentially steal some carries. Regardless, there is no likely future where Jamaal Williams is getting double digit touches per game. If Montgomery does get injured, Williams would be worth owning, but the upside is too little to be worth using a roster spot until that happens. You would be much better off using the roster spot on a running back like Buffalo’s Jonathan Williams, a more traditional handcuff who would be in line for double digit carries if the starter got hurt. Buffalo’s Williams is going three rounds later than Jamaal Williams in redraft leagues.

So exactly how much value does Jamaal Williams have?

I would expect Williams to produce on similar levels to someone like Washington’s Chris Thompson. Somewhat counter-intuitively, Williams may be the best receiving option at the running back position in Green Bay. Most games he might get three to five carries and a couple of targets, but there may be a game or two where he really lights it up in the passing game. Good luck predicting when those games will be though. Williams should only be taken in dynasty leagues and as a last round flyer in PPR leagues.

So Williams probably won’t have much of a fantasy impact in 2017. Does that must mean Ty Montgomery is going to have a big year?

Not necessarily. Ty Montgomery is still a pretty risky player at the running back position, something which is accurately baked into his price as a fourth round pick. Ty Montgomery showed he can be an agile and strong runner with decent instincts last year, but Montgomery only received about seven carries a game. He produced some big fantasy days with such a limited workload, but you probably can’t consistently rely on him if his usage doesn’t go up. The limited amount of carries had a number of influencing factors; the pass heavy scheme, Montgomery’s lack of training at the position, and as a precaution against Montgomery’s sickle cell trait. After an offseason in which Montgomery has trained and gotten his body ready for the position, his usage will most likely improve, but it probably isn’t going to get much higher than about 12 carries per game. Additionally, although he spent years as a receiver, Montgomery didn’t get much attention in the passing game. He averaged only three catches per game when he was lining up in the backfield. Part of that is just random volatility, but he does have limits as a receiver. Again, he will get more receptions but probably not a lot more.

So that’s the thing, at this point Montgomery’s usage is likely to remain someone limited. A running back with the talent of Montgomery can absolutely produce strong fantasy value with limited touches on a high octane offense, but it’s no sure thing. There are some very possible futures where Green Bay is not producing any fantasy relevant running backs.

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