In part three of this series, I described what I called “Success standards.” These are thresholds where if a quarterback were able to hit them, they are substantially more likely to be a success in the NFL.

In part four, the final piece of the puzzle is explained. This piece acts partly as a review of the collection, but adds nuance to why each portion is pivotal to understanding the topic at hand.

Trends that fit into a spectrum of success and failure are discussed. Being on the lower end of the spectrum of these characteristics won’t send you into the bust column, while displaying scores that are off the chart won’t guarantee pro-bowls; but if a QB has the characteristics in abundance one way or another, it will tell us much of what we need to know.

Trend Characteristics for Quarterbacks

As one would expect, every one of the characteristics in my model are often tied to success.  For this section, I’ll rank which are the strongest correlated with a higher QBR and a longer time in the league.

Games Played + Percentage of Games Won in College

This has been conveyed on numerous occasions.  If a quarterback plays more games and wins those game, it shows a few important characteristics.  They show commitment, grit and hardiness.  Hardiness is literally a psychological characteristic that has been studied for years . It goes hand in hand with what are called resilient people. These people process their emotions better under stress, and failure doesn’t impact them the same way.  Resilient people don’t linger on their faults, but instead work to overcome them. People with these characteristics follow long term goals to the end, which allows them to acquire a higher level of competence in whatever arena they follow.

These are all characteristics that we look for in leaders, but this combination of measurable factors shows these personality characteristics in spades.  To become the starting QB on a juggernaut like Alabama or OSU, you must show these characteristics to the likes of Nick Saban or Urban Meyer. Furthermore, if you’re not part of a super team like these, your own grit and determination shows through even stronger.

This is the most important of the correlational statistics and it should be no surprise that the first round of the NFL draft is full of the likes of these players.

Notable adherents: Nearly everyone.

Games played/percentage won:

Notable outliers: Jay Cutler (45/24.44%), Ryan Tannehill (19/63.16%), Cam Newton (14/100%), Mitch Trubisky (15/67.7%), Deshone Kizer (23/52.20%), Mark Sanchez (16/87.5%), Matt Flynn (13,84.6%)

Career and Last Year of College Completion Percentage

There is a strong trend for successful NFL QBs to have a high completion percentage in college.  I’ve already gone over how having a career completion percentage under 58.6% dooms a QBs success on the next level; but a higher completion percentage shows a great chance for success as well.

The same rules apply in college as in the NFL.  Quarterbacks that can lead receivers or hit them on the numbers are going to have a higher number of completed receptions than those that can’t.

Since QBs in the NFL often get a very short window of opportunity, it is crucial for them to have these habits developed well before they enter the NFL. Players that may have eventually become developed pocket passers are often rejected as busts because they weren’t accurate when the time came.

This is the reason that last year completion percentage is more important than career completion percentage.  This metric demonstrates the development a QB has shown over their first years of truly intense competition.  Players like Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Dak Prescott, and Philip Rivers all demonstrated substantial increases in their accuracy by the time they graduated.  This is also one of the reasons that if a QB only has played a season or less, that they are far more likely to fail in the NFL.

Notable adherents: Nearly everyone.

Career/Last year:

Notable outliers: Trevor Siemian (58.9/58.2), Jay Cutler (57.2/59.1), Deshone Kizer (60.7/58.7), Brian Hoyer (55.8/51), Mike Glennon (60.4/58.5), Josh Freeman (59.1/58.6).

As you can see, the outliers should not inspire confidence in the ability for people with this track record to succeed.

Ball Velocity

As I stated in my second article on death knell characteristics, a quarterback that throws a fast-ball of 49 MPH or lower is doomed in the NFL.  Not only that, but you want someone that throws faster than 52 MPH.  This is because a two mile per hour difference in ball speed at that level turns into a three-foot difference in positioning of the ball 20 yards out.  In a league where leading your receivers is crucial, a successful quarterback has to fit the ball into holes that are often smaller than a foot.  This is one of many reasons why players like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have been more successful than Mike Glennon or Tyrod Taylor.

The stronger the arm, in theory the more accurate a QB can be farther down the field.  In the modern NFL, the best quarterbacks win in the intermediate range of 12 to 25 yards.  This is why the make-up of starting QBs currently stands as shown here:

Notable adherents: Nearly everyone. Aaron Rodgers (60) Matt Stafford (60), Jay Cutler (58), Kirk Cousins (59), Carson Wentz (57), Russell Wilson (56), Patrick Mahomes (60).

Nearly every starting QB has a ball speed above 52.

Notable outliers: Tyrod Taylor (50, likely was injured), Mike Glennon (49), Drew Brees (52)

Hand size

There is often a hard and fast rule when it comes to hand sizes for QBs, you want them big.  There does seem to be a trend with both of these characteristics.  Bigger hands allow for better grip of the ball in various circumstances.  This increases accuracy, decreases interceptions and allows for better control of the ball when being hit, thus decreasing fumbles.  If you’re playing in a poor weather city, the bigger the hands the better.

Beyond the failure standard, hand size is also correlated with success.  Johnathan Bales at Rotoworld created a formula to determine how much value a quarterback will likely offer in the draft: HS/H*100 (hand size divided by height multiplied by 100). The higher the result, the more likely the quarterback will be to offer value.

Here we see one of the reasons Jared Goff had such a hard time his first year, 9/76*100= 11.84.  This is most certainly on the low end of the spectrum of hand impact.

Russell Wilson, is a perfect example of how this equation functions, although he is 71 inches tall, he has 10.25-inch hands.  Thus (10.25/71*100 = 14.44). Drew Brees is also a great example of how longer hands on a smaller frame makes for a QB with better ball control.  He comes in at 73” with 10.25” hands (10.25/73 * 100 = 14.04).

Notable adherents: Tom Brady—10.25”, Russell Wilson—10.25”, Drew Brees—10.25”, Dak Prescott—10.875”, Andrew Luck—10” Tyrod Taylor—10”

Notable outliers: Ryan Tannehill—9”, Colin Kaepernick—9.125”, Jared Goff—9”, Derek Carr—9.125”

Wonderlic Score

Next there is the Wonderlic, this is a test that is supposed to measure speed of processing and quick decision making.  This is not a hard and fast test that proves success, but is instead something that is a part of a complete picture.  Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick both scored some of the highest scores in the history of the NFL, but after a quick gaze through my data, it is easy to see that success is seen in advance more often than not when a player has a higher score. Every hall of fame QB currently playing had a score above 30 (except Drew Brees who scored a 28). It would make sense that someone who can think quickly and make decisions when the pressure is on would make a quality QB.

It also strikes me that test taking is an ability that could be correlated with learning a complex NFL playbook. An NFL quarterback may have to learn hundreds of plays over an NFL season and in many styles, they need to know everyone else’s plays as well. If you don’t have the skills to learn quickly and integrate that knowledge it will be exceedingly difficult to execute everything that’s needed.

These aren’t one read offenses where you can know exactly what to do and execute.  An NFL quarterback has to process information on the millisecond level, they have to identify choices and pull the trigger.  If you can’t succeed on the wonderlific which tests many of these abilities, it becomes clear that your life as a QB could be harder than necessary.  Paxton Lynch, I’m looking at you with your score of 18.

Notable adherents: Tom Brady--33, Aaron Rodgers--39, Eli Manning--39, Alex Smith--40, Kirk Cousins--33, Matt Stafford--38, Carson Wentz--40, Andrew Luck—37,

Notable outliers: Blaine Gabbert--42, Ryan Fitzpatrick—48, Tyrod Taylor--15, Cam Newtwon—21, Derek Carr—20, Ben Roethlisburger—25, Teddy Bridgewater—20.

Draft Pick Chosen

Since the age of the salary cap, the fifth-year option has become increasingly vital to the success of a well-balanced franchise. This option allows first-round picks to be kept for an extra year while being paid a substantially lower amount than their market value would command.  When a team is forced to spend nearly 14 percent of its entire salary cap on one player (as the Raiders are going to have to do with Derek Carr in 2018) this makes it nearly impossible to pay for a stocked defense and/or offensive line.  The cure was the poison in a way.  We’ve seen this with Russell Wilson after his contract dropped.  The Seahawks went from having the most expensive offensive line to the cheapest in the span of a year.

This is one of the primary contributing factors to why draft pick chosen has become a continually more important characteristic in recent years.  When you have the possibility of holding onto someone like an Andrew Luck or Teddy Bridgewater for an extra year, it becomes a priority to invest your time and attention into that player.  The sunk costs that are tied to these choices push teams to look to the first-round players when others may be better lower on the depth chart.

This is not to cast dispersions upon NFL scouts’ abilities to actually find quality.  First round QBs exhibit many of the characteristics I’ve discussed in this project.  Scouts aren’t fools, that’s why they pay attention to every piece of minutiae a QB displays.

The proof is in the pudding, as a vast majority of starting QBs were drafted in the first two rounds, and even more precisely within the first 45 picks.  Only six of the 32 current starters were drafted outside of that range. 

This is a great first place to look for success, but as I’ve shown you over the last four pieces, round drafted in isn’t everything.  By looking through the trends, and the success standards it’s much easier to identify the next Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, or Kirk Cousins.  Each of these quarterbacks showed us who they were before they entered the NFL, and it’s up to us to listen.

Notable adherents: Aaron Rodgers—1.24, Eli Manning—1.01, Peyton Manning—1.01, Andrew Luck—1.01, Jameis Winston—1.01, Carson Wentz—1.02, Marcus Mariota—1.02, Andy Dalton—2.10, and many others.

Notable outliers: Tom Brady (6^th round), Russell Wilson (3^rd round), Dak Prescott (4^th round), Kirk Cousins (4^th round), Trevor Siemian (7^th round), Tyrod Taylor (6^th round), Tony Romo (UDFA).

QB Success/Failure Analysis Series