RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now on the second edition of Turning Two. If you missed our debut, we discussed who will hit 50 HR in the 2017 season. Our next topic flips to the second part of the diamond: the pitchers. Will any pitcher reach the 300 K mark?
300 strikeouts in one season is no easy feat, but it's certainly feasible. Clayton Kershaw was the last man to reach the milestone in 2015, and Randy Johnson made it look easy by completing the task three years in a row starting in 2000. Though no one made it in 2016, Max Scherzer was the closest, just missing out with 284.
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Turning Two: Will Any Pitcher Strike-Out 300 Batters?
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There are three main keys to reaching the 300 K milestone: good health, obviously a strong K/9 rate, a high whiff rate, and an arsenal of pitches that keeps hitters off balanced and a strikeout pitch that he can go to consistently with confidence. They all aren't requirements, but it sure does make life a lot easier.
Today we'll analyze four starting pitchers (not named Scherzer or Kershaw) who have the upside to join the elite strikeout kings. Though none of these pitchers have gotten close to 300 K in a season yet, they all flash big strikeout upside and possess many of the key skills needed to reach that milestone. Let’s get started.
JB's Two:
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (SP)
As we have come all too familiar with, Strasburg had a fantastic season derailed by injury in 2016. He started the year with a 15-1 record in his first 20 starts, holding opponents to a .194 BAA over the stretch. But that's not what we are here to discuss. Show me the strikeouts! Well, in those first 133.2 IP, Stras piled up 161 K, which roughly equates to 275 over a full season. A torn pronator tendon in his throwing elbow extinguished the fire in 2016, but has since reportedly fully healed and Strasburg will participate fully in Spring Training.
Putting the injury concerns aside for a moment, Strasburg was a top five strikeout guy in 2016, and that's even with the awful second half stats before we knew of the injury. His 11.15 K/9 and 30.6 K% both ranked fourth in the league. He generates a ton of weak contact, sixth lowest Hard% allowed, thanks to his filthy offspeed pitches that compliment his 95 mph cheese. His classic strikeout pitch has been his changeup, that generated a "can't touch this" 20.4 SwStr% last season, along with a measly 58% contact percentage. Before last season, his curveball was his second go-to pitch. But in 2016 we saw the emergence of what most experts will call a slider. According to Pitchf/x, Stras threw a pitch that classified as a slider 16.8% of his throws, after only 1.3% and 0.4% in the previous two seasons. He continues to state he does not throw a slider. But this thing is no curveball, as its moving at 89.2 MPH, which makes it the second fastest "slider" in the league. Whatever the hell it is, it was a big reason for the sexy spike in whiffs, so expect it to remain heavily utilized in 2017.
When Strasburg defies the odds and pitches at least 215 innnings like he saw in 2014, but brings the 2016 strikeout percentages with him, the result is going to be a league-leading strikeout total. It only helps my case that he gets to pitch in the NL East, where he gets to pitch against the Braves, Marlins, Phillies, and Mets (10.9, 9.2, 11.3, 12.5 K/9 against for his career, respectively).
Ben: With Strasburg it isn’t a question of if he will get hurt, but when. Over the past five seasons he has only eclipsed 200 innings once, and hasn’t gotten to 25 starts in each of the past two seasons. If he can find a way to stay healthy, he definitely has a shot to get to 300 strikeouts. He held a 11.15 K/9 rate last season, striking out 183 hitters across 147.2 innings.
JB: Says the guy who picked Giancarlo Stanton in our 50 HR piece....
Lance McCullers, HOU (SP)
I enjoy rowdy picks, get used to it. My next pick is a young stud who also was injured last season, twice in this case, and thus we only got to bask in his awesomeness for 14 starts. But in those 14 starts, McCullers showed us that he has the potential to be one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the game. He posted the fourth highest K/9 among starters with at least 80 IP (11.78), and joined Strasburg as one of only six starting pitchers with a K% over 30.0. He doesn't possess a deep arsenal of pitches, but instead sticks to a four seam fastball, knuckle curve, and changeup. But those three pitches are plenty good enough, and its that knuckle curve that will carry McCullers to 300 strikeouts.
This knuckle curve is devastating, and luckily for fantasy owners, McCullers throws it more than any other pitcher in the league. At 85.1 MPH, it is the fastest curveball in baseball, and as you see in the clip above, waits until the very last second to drop. Just straight up filthy. According to Pitchf/x the pitch earned a .140 BAA, a 45.7 K%, and an almost identical SwStr% as Strasburg's changeup. McCullers curve is so good that it actually beat out Corey Kluber and the late, great Jose Fernandez for the highest value curveball in baseball.
McCullers was really heating up prior to the elbow sprain, but is working on new mechanics this off-season to avoid any elbow problems this year. Heres to hoping the adjustments keep the man healthy so he surprises everyone (but me) and reaches 300 strikeouts in 2017.
Ben: This one is a stretch, but this choice makes sense if you look at his gaudy K/9 numbers. In his second season with Houston, McCullers upped his strikeouts per nine from 9.24 to 11.78 thanks to a dominating curveball that is a thing of beauty to watch. What is going to keep him from reaching 300 strikeouts is his control; on top of those strikeouts, he averaged 5.0 BB/9 last season, which kept his overall innings down due to the number of pitches he was throwing. At the tender age of 23 there is still plenty McCullers needs to learn before he joins the elite strikeout pitchers in the league.
Ben's Two:
Noah Syndergaard, NYM (SP)
All those who oppose Thor will feel the mighty wrath of his hammer. The mix of his 100-mph fastball and his 95-mph slider is more than enough to strike fear into anyone he faces, and he is able to do this for over six innings in the majority of his starts. Who cares if he can’t pick anyone off at first base. When you can forget about them and punch-out the hitter at the plate, baserunners mean nothing to a man of this caliber. Syndergaard is a strikeout machine that we’re only seeing the beginnings of at age 24.
Let’s get to some hard statistics. Syndergaard saw his strikeouts per nine (K/9) jump from 9.96 in his rookie season to 10.68 last season, which ranked fourth in all of baseball. He and Max Scherzer were the only pitchers in the top-20 of walks per nine last season with a K/9 over 10. He was able to keep his home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) at a tidy 8.6%, which was second in the league last season. Syndergaard has worked this offseason to improve his stamina to help him go deeper into games, which is good because he will need to improve on the 183.2 innings he threw last season if he wants to reach the 300 mark. If he continues making the correct adjustments to his game, it wouldn’t be crazy to see him reach 300 as early as this season given his skill level. His elbow issues will need to be a thing of the past if he plans on reaching this loft goal.
JB: Got some nerve arguing against Strasburg because he hasn't reached 200 innings since 2014, and then pick Thor who hasn't gone over 183 IP in like, ever. But yes, if there is a kid out there right now that will be the next Nolan Ryan, it is Syndergaard. There isn't a starter in the league throwing harder than Thor, and he upped his K/9 from the previous season. I just don't see another jump to the high 11's happening in one season. He will certainly get there, but not in 2017. Speed isn't everything ya know.
Robbie Ray, ARI (SP)
In his first full season in Arizona, Ray recorded 119 strikeouts in 127.2 innings (8.39 K/9). He took a huge step forward in his strikeouts last season, punching out 218 hitters over 174.1 innings. His 11.25 K/9 ranked second in the league behind only Jose Fernandez. He was able to increase his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) from 9.0% to 11.6%, so even though he threw more pitches in the zone last season he was able to decrease his contact rate. This was possible for Ray last season because he added some velocity to his fastball and slider. His fastball average was 94.1mph, peaking at 98mph last season. His slider was up to 84.2mph (up nearly two mph from the year before) with a high of 89mph.
At 25, there is room for Ray to refine his pitches and up his strikeout totals. He does have some things he will need to work on to get to 300 strikeouts; not only does he pitch in one of the top hitters parks in the league, he averaged less than six innings per start last season thanks to some control issues. He posted a 3.67 BB/9 rate, and his 15.5% HR/FB rate was the highest of his career so far. His FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45 show he pitched better than his 4.90 ERA would indicate, so there is plenty of upside over the horizon. It is certainly possible Ray takes another step forward in his development this season and at least pushes 250 strikeouts as he tops 200 innings for the first time in his career (barring any health issues during the season).
JB: Now this is the kind of rowdiness I like to see Ben. I completely agree that the main issue with this pick is his inability to go deep into games. But it's not just because of control issues, it's also because Ray gets shellacked consistently. His 15.5 HR/FB% may seem fluky high, but it's not. He pitches half his games in Coors Field Jr (Chase Field), and gives up the second highest Hard% in the league. Plus he lacks the dominating offspeed stuff needed to take that next step, as both his slider and changeup are below average, with his changeup actually being the worst in the league in terms of value according to Pitchf/x.
