RADIO
Welcome, Rotoballers! Having trouble surviving without fantasy sports? (No offense, basketball). We've got just the remedy to prepare you for the upcoming baseball season with the return of a 2016 favorite, Turning Two.
So what is Turning Two? Turning Two is a weekly segment where fellow Rotoballers JB and Ben Ruppert will be tackling various topics (Who will hit 50 HR? Who will win 20 games? Is Zach Britton still warming up in the bullpen?) that relate to the upcoming 2017 season. We will each take on three candidates for the topic at hand, and try to shame the other participant for his picks as much as possible in the process.
For our initial piece, we'll start with something exciting; the long ball. Chicks dig that, right? Will someone hit 50 home runs this year? It's only been done twice in the past seven seasons (Jose Bautista - 2010 ; Chris Davis - 2013) so we're obviously not going six-for-six with our predictions, but here's a few candidates to fit the bill.
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Turning Two: Who Will Hit 50 HR?
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), JB (@RowdyRotoJB), or Ben (@Ben_Ruppert_21) and let us know!
JB's Three:
1. Nolan Arenado, COL (3B)
There can't be talk about the long ball without mentioning a player who plays his home games in Coors Field, and we might as well start with the Rockies star third baseman. Over the past two seasons Arenado has averaged 41.5 HR, .573 SLG, and .286 ISO. This guy is an absolute monster. The two keys, or pillars of power as I will call them, to putting the ball in the stands are obviously hitting the ball in the air, and hitting it hard....really hard. Luckily Arenado does both. He set career highs with a 46.7 flyball percentage (sixth highest in the league) and 37.9 hard hit percentage, with both stats increasing every season since 2013. Arenado is a big time pull hitter, pulling the ball at a 45.7% rate, which works out perfectly for the power. When hitting the ball to leftfield last season, he hit 34 of his 41 bombs with the second highest pull ISO in the league.
Last season I remember arguing against Nolan Arenado for this very same topic. The argument I leaned on was his lack of power against LHP in a division that boasts some of the worlds best south paws. He must have heard my concerns because he took a step in the right direction by increasing his ISO vs LHP from .186 in 2015 up to .236 last season. I expect the improvements to continue for the young stud, which means even more dingers. This isn't a question of if Nolan Arenado will hit 50 HR in 2017, it's actually how many over 50 will he hit?
Ben: If there’s one player I would take over Stanton to lead the league in HR, it’s Arenado. Back-to-back 40 HR seasons before he turns 26, while playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the league make him an attractive selection for this exercise
2. Freddie Freeman, ATL (1B)
I enjoy getting rowdy. Arenado was too safe of a pick so now its time for shock and awe. Freeman had a power breakout in 2016, setting career highs with 34 HR, .569 SLG, and a .267 ISO. Not by coincidence, this all came with his first season GB/FB ratio under 1.00. See, flyballs are key. My second pillar of power, hitting the crap out of the ball, is somewhere else that Freeman excelled last season. His 43.5 Hard% was second to only Big Papi in the league among qualified hitters, who has himself a 50 HR season under his tight belt. Unlike Arenado, Freeman's success in the power department last season came largely in part to hitting the ball to the opposite field. He went oppo at a career high rate, and put 12 of his 34 bombs in the seats in leftfield, a direction in which he hit 69.6% flyballs (the first pillar). Also unlike Arenado, Freeman crushes lefties. He is matchup-proof. He slugged .513 off southpaws with a ridiculous 43.9 Hard% which was higher than that of his RHP percentage. The dude is a left handed hitter if you weren't tracking.
The biggest reason to hop on the Freeman train in 2017 was the fashion in which he finished the 2016 season. He tore the cover off the ball down the stretch to the tune of a .634 SLG, .311 ISO, 23.1 HR/FB%, and 47.6 Hard%. If you are only going to look at his previous season HR totals to disregard this pick, remember Jose Bautista hit 54 HR in 2010. His previous career high at the time? 16. What a special number that is by the way, considering that is the amount of HR Freeman added to his 2015 total last season, and the amount of HR he is going to add in 2017 to reach the big five-oh.
Ben: Freeman had a career year in 2016, but it remains to be seen if that was a power blip on the radar or if this HR ability is here to stay. Before last season his high in HR was 23, and his career Isolated Power rate of .196 is much lower than the .267 rate he held last season.
3. Trevor Story, COL (SS)
Two players from the same team, why the hell not? Like I said, rowdy. A very unfortunate thumb injury on July 30th ended what had been a monstrous rookie season for Trevor Story, as he still finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He mashed 27 HR in just 415 PA, which over a full season translates somewhere in the 44-45 territory. His .296 ISO placed him ahead of my boy Freddie Freeman for second among players with at least 400 PA, and his .567 SLG placed him directly behind Arenado and Freeman for fifth best. Going along with the pillars of power, he managed the third lowest GB/FB ratio (0.62) in the league (min. 400 PA), and his 44.9 Hard% also beat out Freeman for second best. The dude is powerful.
Yes, Story's plate discipline needs vast improvement. But when you assume tireless off-season work towards cutting down that ugly 31.3 K% is taking place as we speak, 50 bombs is reachable. Besides the eye-gouging K%, the numbers weren't that bad. His 12.5 SwStr% isn't ideal but it was almost two whole points better than Freeman's, and for the short 16 game stint after the All-Star break, when he was supposed to crash back down to earth he hit six HR with a blistering .358 ISO. So technically if it weren't for the thumb injury, which is reportedly fully healed as of two months ago, Story could have already reached the 50 HR milestone as a rookie. Oh yeah, and he plays half his games at Coors Field, where he posted a .381 ISO and a 52.1 Hard%. That'll help.
Ben: This one would be the biggest stretch of the three, though I can’t discount any power hitter hitting at Coors Field. Story was able to impressively mash 27 HR in only 97 games last season, but he struck out 31.3% of the time.
Ben's Three:
1. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA (OF)
You can’t make a list of home run hitters without mentioning Giancarlo Stanton. Over the past three seasons he has the second highest Hard Hit % at 43.3%, and has the highest Home Run to Fly Ball rate in the league at 26.1%. He hit the two longest HR last season; a 490 ft. shot at Marlins Park and a 495 ft. launch at Coors field. The average true distance on his HR led the league at 424.6ft.
The only reason we haven’t seen Stanton reach the 50 HR plateau has nothing to do with his raw power, but his ability to stay on the field; he has played at least 125 games only once in the past five seasons. He is heading into 2017 fully healthy after dealing with a groin issue last season. We should see some bounce back in his game due to his lower than average BABIP and Isolated Power numbers last season (.290 and .249 respectively in 2016). At 27-years of age, Stanton is in the thick of his prime and is the safest bet to reach 50 HR in the league.
JB: I've done passed out and died from holding my breath waiting for my man crush to unleash his full sexy-bodied potential. No-brainer pick here, but I won't be the one to make it.
2. Kris Bryant, CHC (3B)
Kris Bryant made some major strides in 2016, after winning the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2015. Bryant cut his strikeout rate from 30.6% to 22.0%, increased his Hard Contact % from 37.5% to 40.3%, and his Isolated Power rate rose from .213 to .262. He smacked 13 more HR last season, ending the year hitting .292/.385/.554 with 39 HR. His .554 Slugging % ranked seventh overall in the league. Of his 39 HR, 11 were no-doubters according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker.
Unlike Stanton, Bryant has been healthy so far in his short career missing only seven games last season. If he continues to take forward steps in his approach at the plate, another jump in power is not out of the question. Expecting another double-digit jump in HR seems like a lot to ask, but when you’re talking about a 25-year old phenom who has yet to peak it doesn’t seem so crazy. Even if he doesn’t reach 50, another monster fantasy season is in store.
JB: Got nothing damn it, except that Ben got to pick first..
3. J.D. Martinez, DET (OF)
Late bloomer J.D. Martinez has certainly made the Astros regret releasing him back in 2014. After some time in the minors, Martinez raked up in Detroit that year hitting 23 HR in 123 games. Over the past two seasons he has kept the power up, hitting 38 HR in a full 2015 season and 22 HR in an injury shortened season last year. He suffered an elbow fracture last season which caused him to miss nearly two months of the season. After he returned he hit 10 HR and held a 43.1% Hard Hit %, showing that there should be no ill-effects from the injury moving forward.
On the season, Martinez finished with a 41.0% Hard Hit % and a measly 10.7% Soft Hit %. With plenty of lineup protection around him in a loaded Tigers lineup, he should see enough quality pitches to hit into the seats. Plenty of players have taken some time to get going in their careers and experienced sustained success, like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. At 29, Martinez still has plenty left in the tank with an outside shot of making the big leap.
JB: Too many groundballs. 2015 showed a lot of promise, but last season he fell right back to his career average, especially after returning from his injury. I'm telling you, look at all players to hit 50 HR since 2002. None of them hit over a 1.00 GB/FB ratio. You can hit it as hard as you want, but if more than half of the balls are on the ground, 50 just ain't happening.
