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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/30/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Nick Kurtz, Nathaniel Lowe, and more!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! Major League Baseball has 11 games on tap for Thursday, with most of the action in the afternoon. A pair of Wednesday night washouts gives us two doubleheaders on the board as well, setting up a unique slate to attack. There are some juicy home run props to consider for several of these matchups, so let's dive in and break down the matchups, environments, and who is primed to go yard.
I have four home run picks in this post for you, as well as a longshot bet. Last Friday, in my most recent RotoBaller post, I got a pair of leadoff homers from Gunnar Henderson and Nick Kurtz to get the weekend off to a good start. This week, I've got picks coming your way both Thursday and Friday, so hopefully we can keep the power flowing.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/29/2026)
Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+335 Kalshi)
Nick Kurtz and the Athletics host the Royals at Sutter Health Park in one of the most homer-friendly venues on Thursday's schedule. The temps are forecast to be over 70 degrees with a slight breeze blowing out to right field. Kurtz will be in a lefty-lefty matchup against Noah Cameron, but that doesn't mean the 23-year-old slugger needs to be avoided. In fact, it actually keeps his props from being too short to attack.
Kurtz emerged as a star last season with 36 homers as a rookie, and after a slower start to this season, he has found his power stroke, smashing five homers in his last 16 games after not going yard in his first 13 games of the year. He has a 61% hard-hit rate on the season and a 20.3% barrel rate, and over his last 16 games, he has increased those numbers with a 65% hard-hit rate and 25.7% barrel rate.
Nick Kurtz LEAVES THE YARD on the first pitch of the game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/dddAslVXKo
— Athletics on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) April 25, 2026
On Thursday afternoon, he'll face Noah Cameron, who is having a slow start to his own sophomore season, going 2-1 in five starts with a 5.13 ERA and 4.87 FIP, but his xERA is even higher at 7.01 since he has given up a 14.1% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate. Cameron has given up five homers on the season, including three to lefties in just 24 plate appearances. Lefties are hitting .304 with a .471 wOBA against Cameron, so Kurtz remains a strong option to target for home run props in this afternoon's contest.
Nathaniel Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+464 DraftKings)
The Reds and Rockies have split the first two games of their series at Great American Ballpark, with six homers in the first two games of the series. While it won't be quite as warm as Sacramento, the wind will be out to right-center field, creating a nice homer environment. The Reds have gotten a nice boost in the lineup from Lowe, who is getting time as the DH against right-handed pitchers while Eugenio Suarez (oblique) is on the IL.
Lowe has been a streaky producer in the past, and he's on a heater coming into this favorable matchup. Over his last five games, the 30-year-old lefty is 6-for-19 (.316) with four homers and a hard-hit ball in every game, resulting in a 38.9% hard-hit rate.
Nate makes it back-to-back homers!@nathaniel_lowe pic.twitter.com/DF6ZnSSsoU
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 25, 2026
On Thursday, Lowe and the rest of the Reds lefties are in a juicy matchup against struggling Rockies' starter Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen has allowed 24 runs in 28 2/3 innings this season on 47 hits, including four home runs. Lefties have hit three of those four homers and have a .426 batting average, a .705 SLG, and a .495 wOBA against him this season.
Lowe brings some solid value at almost 5:1, and since he's on the strong side of those splits with plenty of momentum, he's a good home run prop to start this Thursday off with a big blast.
