August 9, 2016

Edward Sutelan analyzes the MLB's top up-and-coming outfielders for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. These guys could make an impact in 2016 and beyond.

Since I split up the two leagues, I thought that it would work out well to merge the two and briefly discuss the top-20 overall so dynasty owners know where everyone fits in. The descriptions for each player are not going to be particularly long and if you want a full scouting report, you can find the National League outfielders here and the American League outfielders here.

A quick note on how these articles are formatted. They are going to be sorted by who I think is the best option for dynasty owners based on a combination of estimated time of arrival and potential upside. I will include their stats from their current level, their age, their ETA and lastly a talent grade. The talent grade will be an all-encompassing grade designed to inform dynasty owners of how big of a fantasy impact a player will realistically have. It will take into account how long it takes to reach the big leagues and will be on a scale of 1-10.

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Outfield Prospect Dynasty Rankings

Although Dahl and Benintendi are already in the majors, they are included on this list as recent prospect call-ups who are relevant for dynasty leagues. I also started writing this column before their call-ups, so it made sense to keep them in.

1. David Dahl (COL, MLB)
Stats: 56 PA, .370/.393/.593, 3 HR, 0 SB, 28.6% K rate, 3.6% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: Now

Already in the big leagues, Dahl is proving why he should be considered the top outfield prospect in all of baseball. With Coors Field providing him a boost in the power department and his wheels quick enough to swipe 30 bags, Dahl is nearly guaranteed to be a consistent 20/20 guy and is likely to near 30/30 with a high batting average to boot. He should be considered an elite talent and is well worth owning in all dynasty leagues.

Talent grade: 10

2. Andrew Benintendi (BOS, MLB)
Stats: (from AA) 263 PA, .295/.357/.515, 8 HR, 8 SB, 11.4% K rate, 9.1% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: Now

Benintendi has drawn plenty of comparisons to Mookie Betts for their promising power/speed combinations. Now it is only fitting that the two should be patrolling the same outfield grass. Recently promoted to the big leagues, the sweet-swinging lefty will receive regular starts against right-handed pitching and it is only a matter of time until he starts every game in left for the Red Sox. With the potential to put together 20/20 seasons with a .300+ batting average, Benintendi should be considered among the game’s most elite prospects and warrants owning in all leagues.

Talent grade: 9.5

3. Austin Meadows (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 52 PA, .260/.288/.540, 2 HR, 2 SB, 13.5% K rate, 3.8% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017

I would not expect Meadows to crack his team’s outfield this season like the two aforementioned prospects have, but it is only a matter of time until he is given a chance to take his talents to the big leagues. Meadows consistently ranks among the top prospects in the game and always impresses scouts with his quick bat, well above-average speed and advanced approach. Meadows figures to be a prominent part of any dynasty team willing to own him. And yes, that should be just about any team in any league.

Talent grade: 9.5

4. Lewis Brinson (MIL, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 326 PA, .237/.280/.431, 11 HR, 11 SB, 19.6% K rate, 5.2% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017

In terms of pure raw talent, no one on this list is more talented than Brinson. He combines 30 home run raw power and 30 stolen base speed making him one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. But plate discipline issues and struggles hitting breaking pitches have hurt his overall production. If he can put everything together, he will be a 30/30 threat with the ability to hit for a high average. If he continues to strike out too much, he will still be a 20/20 guy, but may not hit enough to reach the double 30 totals. Owners will need to be patient with him as he continues to refine his approach, but he could impress enough at Triple-A to warrant a promotion as early as the middle of next season.

Talent grade: 9.5

5. Clint Frazier (NYY, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 391 PA, .276/.356/.469, 13 HR, 13 SB, 22.0% K rate, 10.5% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017

The second outfielder on this list dealt from their original team during this season’s trade deadline, Frazier was sent over to the Yankees where he figures to resume practicing in center. In Cleveland, he would have been a right fielder, but in New York he will presumably take over in center when Jacoby Ellsbury moves off the position. Like Brinson, Frazier will only go as far as his plate discipline. Unlike Brinson, Frazier has shown some drastic improvements between this season and the last and looks to be close to putting things together. His power/speed combination and middle-of-the-order presence make him an exciting dynasty prospect worth owning in most leagues.

Talent grade: 9

6. Bradley Zimmer (CLE, AAA)
Stats: 55 PA, .326/.426/.435, 1 HR, 2 SB, 27.3% K rate, 14.5% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2017

Originally it looked like Zimmer and Frazier would be patrolling the outfield grass in Cleveland together as early as the start of next season, but it looks like Zimmer will have to continue on alone. That should not matter too much to fantasy owners as Zimmer still looks like a prospect capable of providing elite production for both the Tribe and dynasty owners. With 30+ stolen base speed and 20+ bomb power, Zimmer should have no problem providing owners with stellar numbers, especially as he starts improving his batting average.

Talent grade: 9

7. Manuel Margot (SD, AAA)
Stats: 453 PA, .313/.361/.456, 6 HR, 24 SB, 9.1% K rate, 6.4% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017

Unlike most of the other names on this list, Margot does not come with a 20/20 guarantee, but rather he excites fantasy owners with the prospect of a future 30 stolen base, .300 hitting leadoff hitter for the Padres. Evaluators praise his quick hands and believe that his bat speed combined with his approach should allow him to easily hit .290 or above nearly every season. And with well above-average speed, Margot will provide plenty of stolen bases and runs scored totals every season. He is a very low risk guy and should be expected to start in center field for San Diego by next season, if not by this September.

Talent grade: 9

8. Raimel Tapia (COL, AA)
Stats: 457 PA, .349/.323/.363, 8 HR, 17 SB, 10.7% K rate, 5.5% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2018

Tapia is a great outfield prospect make no mistake, but it is Coors Field that makes him a near elite outfield prospect. Tapia is a speedy outfielder who projects as .280+ leadoff hitter for the Rockies who could steal 30 bags and hit 10 dingers in a vacuum. Take him out of that vacuum and into Colorado and those 10 dingers start to approach 20. If he is ever traded away, his value would go down, but still not enough to completely tank his fantasy stock. Owners should expect to see Tapia playing left field alongside David Dahl as early as the second half of 2017 and as late as the start of 2018.

Talent grade: 8.5

9. Nick Williams (PHI, AAA)
Stats: 432 PA, .281/.311/.462, 12 HR, 5 SB, 22.9% K rate, 4.2% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017

Williams is another guy on this list with exciting raw tools who is only a few adjustments away from putting everything together. He has flashed 20+ bomb power and should be able to match his home run totals with his stolen base totals, he just needs to continue to refine his approach at the plate. If he can continue to cut down on his swings-and-misses, he could be a perennial All-Star patrolling center field for the Phillies.

Talent grade: 8.5

10. Aaron Judge (NYY, AAA)
Stats: 390 PA, .265/.359/.467, 16 HR, 5 SB, 23.6% K rate, 11.0% BB rate
Age: 24
ETA: 2017

There are a few guys on this list who have exciting power, but none whose power is more exciting than that of Judge. The 6’7” 275 pound giant is a true slugger capable of exceeding 30 home runs every season almost without even having to think about it. Throughout his MiLB career, he has consistently barreled up the ball, but has not been able to consistently get under the ball which has led to lower home run totals than one would expect. Owners should expect him to make the necessary adjustments to become a prolific middle-of-the-order power bat and put the ‘Bomber’ in Bronx Bombers.

Talent grade: 8

11. Kyle Tucker (HOU, A)
Stats: 392 PA, .279/.352/.409, 6 HR, 30 SB, 16.8% K rate, 9.4% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2018

The younger brother of Astros’ outfielder Preston Tucker, Kyle is a far more exciting prospect than his brother ever was and could be one of the more exciting prospects in baseball if he is able to expand on his raw tools. Scouts praise his advanced approach for someone so young and believe that he can grow into his 6’4” frame and generate plenty of power. And with surprising speed to boot, Tucker could grow into a perennial 20/20 guy and possible 30/30 threat. Owners will have to be patient with him because even if he flies through the minors like many expect, he will take some time to generate the explosive power. But those patient owners could be rewarded with a tremendously talented outfielder in a couple of years.

Talent grade: 8

12. Jesse Winker (CIN, AAA)
Stats: 331 PA, .296/.384/.373, 2 HR, 0 SB, 13.0% K rate, 12.4% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017

Far from the most exciting prospect on this list, Winker does at least bring a very low risk profile in for fantasy owners. His plate discipline has received universal acclaim from evaluators and most believe hitting .300 with a .400+ OBP should be no issue for the future left fielder of the Reds. And though he has not shown much power this season, Winker possesses plenty of raw power and should be able to start translating that into home runs as he begins his career in the matchbox of Great American Ballpark. Expect him to begin patrolling left next season and batting second in what could be a surprisingly solid Reds’ lineup.

Talent grade: 8

13. Brett Phillips (MIL, AA)
Stats: 412 PA, .223/.321/.392, 12 HR, 9 SB, 31.3% K rate, 12.1% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2018

The one millionth guy on this list to have the potential to put together a 20/20 season, Phillips is also the 500,000th guy who needs some more time to mature. Some scouts are split on whether or not Phillips will have 20 home run power, but all believe he has the eye to take his walks and bat leadoff for Milwaukee and swipe 15-20 bags per season. But after already having hit 12 home runs this season, Phillips is doing everything in his power to prove that he does have some decent pop in his bat. He has some swing-and-miss issues right now and could probably benefit from an additional season in the minors before reaching the bigs. Owners patient with the 22-year-old could benefit greatly in the end.

Talent grade: 8

14. Derek Fisher (HOU, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 448 PA, .245/.373/.431, 16 HR, 23 SB, 28.6% K rate, 16.5% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2018

Fisher has proven in nearly every season that he has the power and speed combination to make a difference, on his way in 2016 to his second consecutive 20/20 season. But where scouts start to worry about Fisher is with his strikeout issues. He needs to improve on his pitch recognition if he is ever going to hit for a decent average. If he starts to cut down on the punchouts, he has a chance to reach the majors by next season. Otherwise he could spend all of next year in Triple-A with the hopes of starting for the club in 2018.

Talent grade: 7.5

15. Victor Robles (WAS, A+)
Stats: 87 PA, .254/.236/.341, 2 HR, 9 SB, 13.8% K rate, 5.7% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2018

One of the higher upside guys on this list, Robles has everything scouts look for in a player as young as he is. He has a mature approach for someone his age. Most scouts believe that between his patience and bat speed, he should have no issue batting over .300. And though to this point he is more of a line drive hitter, Robles has the strength and bat speed needed to eventually start spraying some of those line drives over the fence. He is also extremely fast, capable of swiping 30+ bags per season. Owners are going to have to wait a season or two for him to continue to develop, but Robles should be ready to make his mark on the Nationals and on fantasy owners in two to three seasons.

Talent grade: 7.5

16. Hunter Renfroe (SD, AAA)
Stats: 471 PA< .321/.350/.592, 27 HR, 4 SB, 19.7% K rate, 3.8% BB rate
Age: 24
ETA: 2017

The guy with the second most power on this list, Renfroe has easy-30 home run power even in a big park like Petco. The big concern has always been whether or not he would be able to cut down on the strikeouts enough to hit for a high average. He has poor pitch recognition and does not walk as much as scouts would like to see from a potential middle-of-the-order power bat. But if he can continue to improve, he could bat .280 with 30+ home runs. At worst, Renfroe will still provide owners with plenty of dingers at the expense of a .250 batting average.

Talent grade: 7.5

17. Eloy Jimenez (CHC, A)
Stats: 412 PA, .337/.376/.535, 12 HR, 7 SB, 20.6% K rate, 5.6% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2019

Jimenez could be your prototypical right fielder in just a few seasons. He hits for power, has a strong arm and has enough range to cover the ground over there in right. Offensively, he could be a 30 homer threat if everything goes right, but at the least he will hit 20 dingers per season. He is not particularly quick, but he will provide owners with the occasional stolen base. Jimenez still has to make some improvements starting with his patience, but the upside is tremendous and he could be a middle-of-the-order bat for years to come in Chicago.

Talent grade: 7.5

18. Dalton Pompey (TOR, AAA)
Stats: 290 PA, .278/.346/.355, 2 HR, 14 SB, 18.3% K rate, 9.3% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2017

Though he technically no longer qualifies as a prospect, Pompey was just barely over the rookie qualification limit and has been at Triple-A this whole season so he qualifies for this ranking. Pompey combines a leadoff hitter’s mentality and approach with well above-average speed and bat control which have many believing he could be a .290+, 25+ stolen base guy batting at the top of a solid Toronto lineup as early as next season. Though he lacks power, Pompey should still be a solid own for most dynasty owners due to his low risk.

Talent grade: 7

19. Alex Verdugo (LAD, AA)
Stats: 420 PA, .280/.343/.423, 11 HR, 2 SB, 13.1% K rate, 8.3% BB rate
Age: 20
ETA: 2017

There is no doubt that Verdugo has a solid power/speed combination, but it is not as explosive as most of the other guys on this list. With that said, he combines a patient approach with a quick bat and should be a guy capable of batting .280 with 15 dingers and 15 swipes every season. And owners may not have to wait too long to reap the rewards as Verdugo could theoretically force his way into the Dodger lineup as early as next season.

Talent grade: 7

20. Anthony Alford (TOR, A+)
Stats: 305 PA, .232/.338/.363, 5 HR, 14 SB, 28.9% K rate, 12.8% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2018

The second speedy Toronto outfielder with a chance to hit at or near the top of the lineup, Alford has had many in Canada excited about his future with the ball club. Unlike Pompey, Alford figures to be somewhat of a high risk guy. He has had a lousy season in 2016 and will need to prove that his early career hypes were warranted and not overblown. Scouts think that he has a solid swing, capable of lacing line drives to all field, but they don’t think it will ever result in more than 10 home runs. With his speed and top-of-the-order profile, Alford could be batting leadoff or second for the Blue Jays in a few seasons and could provide some very solid production.

Talent grade: 7

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