Best and Worst Fantasy Football Picks for First 10 Rounds - Draft Targets and Avoids (2026)

September 5, 2026

John Johnson's best and worst picks for rounds 1-10 of drafts. His top 2026 fantasy football sleepers, busts, targets and avoids for fantasy football drafts.

Still drafting this weekend? Read this article before doing so, and you just might pick up one last nugget of wisdom that propels you to a league-winning finish.

Picking the best and worst fantasy football players to draft in each round is a sure way to get clowned on after the season. Betting against elite players in the first round and hyping up players that might not do much at all won't look good in retrospect.

Still, it's an interesting exercise to break down players that might overachieve or underachieve in any given season. Some players have legitimate red flags that shouldn't be ignored, and some have green flags that should convince you to draft them as often as possible.

Round 1 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - James Cook III, RB, Buffalo Bills

Obviously, the consensus No. 1 pick in the first round is Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. However, the player that I think is going the furthest behind where they should go in the first round is Cook, who I'm comfortable picking as early as 4th overall.

Cook is a highly efficient back, averaging just between 5.2 and 5.3 yards per carry, and scored 14 total touchdowns last season. He caught 33 of his 40 targets, adding a nice PPR element to his game. But this season, he's expected to get even more passing game work.

JAMES COOK. 44-YARD TD.

BUFvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/LuloZeFLqO

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

The veteran has been on the rise in fantasy football for multiple seasons, and could be set for his biggest role yet fantasy-wise. While 1,621 rushing yards might be tough to repeat, if he gets significantly increased target volume, it might not matter -- he could crush fantasy with PPR points and more receiving touchdowns.

Worst - Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson is an elite wide receiver. He's one of the best in the NFL, and in a different situation, he'd be set up for another monster season like the ones he had earlier in his career. Unfortunately, the situation isn't ideal. Quarterback Kyler Murray will be the starter for the Vikings in 2026.

Murray doesn't have much of a history of supporting a high-end wide receiver for fantasy football. He helped WR DeAndre Hopkins to a WR4 overall finish in 2020, but aside from that, his top wideout hasn't been much of a fantasy asset through the years.

It's hard not to think back to a great number of plays in which Murray was scrambling and not keeping his eyes downfield, or when he (possibly) just couldn't see over his offensive linemen to find open receivers.

Kyler Murray danced in the pocket for 6 seconds and somehow NEVER SAW A WIDE OPEN MARVIN HARRISON JR FOR A GAME-CHANGING TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/HG5ysapKB8

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 8, 2024

With quarterbacks who attempt fewer throws, you hope to at least see the top receiver not have much target competition, and take a monster target share on the way to a lot of fantasy points. Unfortunately, WR Jordan Addison is a legitimately good pass-catcher, so he'll earn his targets.

It's possible T.J. Hockenson, the team's top tight end, bounces back as well. Eight or so targets per game from Murray isn't enough for me to consider Jefferson as a competitor for a top-4 WR finish, which is what I'd want drafting him in Round 1.

Round 2 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Jeanty (ankle) is dealing with an ankle sprain. The Raiders are optimistic he can be ready by Week 1. Even if he's not, and if he has a small ramp-up period in the first few games he plays, getting him in the middle of the second round is amazing value.

2025 was a lost season for Las Vegas. Their offense was horrible, with bad playcalling, bad quarterback play, bad offensive line play, and an inability to sustain drives and score points. It should improve markedly this season, with improvements along the offensive line and a big upgrade in offensive coaching.

ASHTON JEANTY 60-YARD HOUSE CALL 🔥💨

(Via @NFL)

pic.twitter.com/818WEdeno3

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 21, 2025

It's fine if rookies on bad teams are inconsistent. What we want to see are flashes of their potential. Jeanty dominated the Houston Texans defense, ranked as the best overall in the NFL last season. He scored 31.8 PPR fantasy points by rushing 24 times for 128 yards and a TD and catching one of his two targets for 60 yards and another score.

The situation has improved, and Jeanty has had more time to work on his game and review tape. He's poised for a big breakout this season.

Worst - Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

McBride played very well last season and is one of the NFL's better tight ends. Arizona racked up a ridiculous amount of points for their players in fantasy football in garbage time, and McBride was the biggest beneficiary, arguably.

That might be tough to replicate. For starters, if WR Marvin Harrison Jr. stays healthy this season and makes a leap, it will be him, WR Michael Wilson, and McBride competing for targets, with newly-drafted running back Jeremiyah Love (ankle) siphoning off a few per game. He's a great pass-catching RB.

Maybe none of that happens, and he's still a dominant target-earner. It's a stretch to count on a tight end being an elite fantasy asset for multiple seasons. Maybe that won't apply here. But positional scarcity drives value in fantasy football.

pic.twitter.com/GL8R6OVZkJ

— Performances (@NotPerformances) December 14, 2025

In the first two rounds, you want a player who can reasonably score 30 or more PPR fantasy points at a position of scarcity and score far higher than the average starter at his position. Picking a tight end in Round 2 leaves you with a deficiency at either WR or RB in a league with 12 or more teams.

A starting, high-volume running back is the best pick you can make in Round 1 or Round 2, aside from an elite wide receiver like Puka Nacua or Ja'Marr Chase, guys who realistically can score 40 or more points, potentially multiple times in one season.

This season, more than in previous seasons, running backs are flying off the board early. You can zag while everyone else is zigging, but often that means you're stuck without the most important player in fantasy football -- a high-volume pass-catching running back.

Picking a tight end this early is extremely risky.

Round 3 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

With the injury to rookie WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) landing him in Injured Reserve, Olave is set to resume the role that had him score over 23.5 PPR fantasy points per game last season. After the injury to WR Rashid Shaheed, Olave dominated his team's target share and put up huge numbers.

He'll be playing under the same offensive-minded head coach, Kellen Moore, and catching passes from the same QB, Tyler Shough. That continuity should lead to explosive results as long as everyone stays healthy.

Chris Olave 62 yard touchdown from Tyler Shough.

I’m going against Jonathan Taylor and Olave ☠️ pic.twitter.com/TR31CzrtXg

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 9, 2025

Shough has received glowing reports out of camp and put together an impressive highlight reel of pinpoint-accurate throws last season. He's quite underrated and is a player you should target late in drafts, especially in superflex leagues.

Honorable Mention: Jeremiyah Love

Worst - Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Egbuka (toe) had a huge breakout stretch last season before his efficiency and fantasy scoring plummeted later in the year. He was dealing with injury issues, as was his quarterback, Baker Mayfield. But his lack of production doesn't seem to be priced in very well.

Instead, he's being drafted ahead of known studs in good offenses like Denver Broncos wideout Jaylen Waddle and sometimes even New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave. Egbuka is multiple rounds too expensive, according to my analysis.

He's dealing with a turf toe injury, which could hamper his production early in the year. That injury is often a nagging one that sticks around for multiple months, too, so we may see him re-aggravate the issue and possibly miss time or play at much less than 100 percent.

FIRE THE CANNONS 💣💥

📺: #WASvsTB on FOX pic.twitter.com/2eIZcETRcB

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 8, 2024

It's already been forgotten that one of his teammates was a top-3 fantasy WR in the NFL before his injury just a few seasons ago. WR Jalen McMillan (knee) could also pose a threat to his target volume once healthy, and pass-catching RB Kenneth Gainwell could absorb too many targets for comfort.

Round 4 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos

A big reason it makes sense to draft two running backs in the first three rounds, at minimum, is that it's easier to find elite receivers in good offenses in Round 3. Waddle is criminally underrated as a 4th-round pick in drafts, and should be going higher.

He's getting a big upgrade in his offensive environment, moving from the hapless Miami Dolphins to the Denver Broncos, who have a good quarterback, a great offensive line, and a legendary offensive schemer in head coach Sean Payton.

Jaylen Waddle' FIRST big catch as a Bronco 🐎

GBvsDEN on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/u7UD9EloUb

— NFL (@NFL) August 22, 2026

Good receivers who get massively upgraded situations aren't valued highly enough in drafts. Last season, that allowed people to get Davante Adams and George Pickens after the 5th round. Those people crushed their way to the fantasy playoffs.

Now, Waddle is sitting in the 4th round while worse players on worse offenses, some of whom are dealing with injury issues, are going ahead of him. It doesn't make much sense. He should be immensely productive this year. My analysis predicts it will be the best season of his career, health permitting.

Worst - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers 

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has played awful football his entire NFL career. It's hard to find a convincing reason why that would change. He hasn't improved much so far. His passing numbers are extremely low, and the film doesn't provide anything encouraging to look forward to.

Carolina has tried to put together a good offensive line for him to work behind, but their productivity has been marred by injuries. This season is no different. And while McMillan played well in 2025 and doesn't have a lot of target competition, a lowering tide sinks all ships, or so the saying goes.

Bryce Young played a horrible game today.

-Throws late on a wide open hitch route to Tet McMillan, sails it out of bounds
-Horrible underthrow to a wide open Hunter Renfrow
-Awful INT

11/22, 72 yards, 1 INT down 23-3 in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/NNEr8ob0Ak

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 7, 2025

A play-caller change might help a bit. But even with "T-Mac" receiving a huge share of the team's targets, Young's poor play drags everyone down. He may finish as a top-15 receiver, but that's not much of a difference-maker in fantasy football.

In Round 4, it feels like there are far better clicks. The aforementioned Waddle, DeVonta Smith, David Montgomery, Garrett Wilson, and Javonte Williams are all good players at more scarce positions (RB) or good receivers who will benefit from much higher-volume passing quarterbacks.

Avoiding players on the NFL's worst few offenses is a good way to chase upside, which is what wins championships. Tet's upside is capped by Young's struggles.

Round 5 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Even though he's 33 years old, Adams remains one of the best value picks in the middle rounds. He had a fantastic season in 2025 thanks to a ton of red zone targets and elite efficiency in that area of the field. He was a touchdown machine in Los Angeles' offense.

Rams WR Puka Nacua is one of the best players in the league. But he's been quite injury-prone throughout his career, both in college and in the NFL. He turned in a mostly healthy season in 2025, but were he to miss time this season, Adams would immediately see an uptick in target volume.

Davante Adams hauls in the touchdown, too smooth 😤 #Rams #Jaguars #NFL #LARvsJAX pic.twitter.com/jxeww7KK6Y

— Aggregate (@AggregateSports) October 19, 2025

There's plenty of upside even if he regresses a bit from last season. There's monster contingent upside in the games that Nacua misses. Keep in mind Nacua seems likely to face discipline by the NFL, which should include a suspension,

Worst - Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns

Fannin had quite the surprising rookie season, becoming a must-start in nearly all fantasy leagues as one of the better tight end options. He finished as the PPR TE6 overall despite poor quarterback play. My analysis suggests that won't repeat itself.

Cleveland had very little in the way of good wide receiver options last season. Fannin's production relied on a high target volume in an unproductive passing offense. Cleveland drafted two wide receivers early in the 2026 NFL Draft, though. KC Concepcion in the first round and Denzel Boston in the second, to be specific.

The rookie KC Concepcion is in for 6!

CLEvsCHI on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/fC7gG5NpsM

— NFL (@NFL) August 15, 2026

The targets that were there last season for Fannin probably just won't be there this season. At least not as many. The Browns are likely to distribute their targets much more evenly this year. None of their WR options last season were very inspiring, but Fannin could become the team's third pass-catching option in short order.

Low passing-volume teams tend not to support three viable fantasy football options through a full season.

Round 6 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Mike Evans, WR, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers WR1, in a Kyle Shanahan offense, with a good QB in Brock Purdy throwing to him, is being drafted in the 6th round of fantasy drafts. Keep in mind that WR gets at least 1,000 yards every season in which he doesn't miss a ton of games and is likely headed for the NFL Hall of Fame.

It feels like when Evans (adductor) has eight catches for around 100 yards and two touchdowns in one of his first four games, people will be kicking themselves for not drafting him. Evans is present on a ton of my fantasy rosters right now. He has so much upside. There's plenty of injury risk, and he's 33 years old, but upside is everything.

MOSSED 🤯

📺: #ATLvsTB on Prime Video pic.twitter.com/ZCTy1FHaCN

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 12, 2025

The stud WR showed no signs of falling off last season. His separation ability remained elite, stunningly so for a player of his age and size, yet he still can win with physicality and strong hands at the catch point. He's a red zone monster. He could average one touchdown per game this season, and it wouldn't surprise anyone who watches him.

Honorable Mention: Christian Watson 

Worst - TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

In the games that mattered most last season, Henderson hardly got the ball. The playoffs featured RB Rhamondre Stevenson as the clear lead Patriots back, despite his fumbling issues and Henderson's excellent draft capital of an early 2nd-round pick.

The second-year pro is an expensive handcuff. He can excel in games where the Patriots are blowing out a bad defense, but when the game is close or the Pats are behind, Stevenson is trusted with the ball. The reporting out of camp about the pair has focused on Henderson's struggles in pass protection and Stevenson's grip on the RB1 role.

Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong, but this looks like another bad pass pro rep/mental error from TreVeyon Henderson. Pitches the ball back to his QB and doesn't turn around to block for him. pic.twitter.com/KTxVRedFgg

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) October 6, 2025

Henderson's two biggest issues in his rookie season were his struggles with breaking tackles and his gaffes in pass protection. Those are disqualifying for a player looking for a workhorse role. He has a lot of work to do to correct those, and some aspects of his problems may not be correctable.

Stevenson isn't a great fantasy asset, but the Patriots probably benefit from having him on the field. New England's offense was extremely inefficient when Henderson was on the field -- the splits were pretty damning, and not in his favor.

Round 7 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Kittle (Achilles) is still recovering from a season-ending Achilles tear late in 2025. But his tear occurred higher in the ligament, which gave him a shorter timetable for recovery. My analysis indicates he's likely to miss Week 1, and he should be minimally productive for the first three or four weeks back.

But the 49ers lost WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) for the season, meaning Kittle and the aforementioned Mike Evans and Christian McCaffrey will hog the majority of the targets. The veteran TE has also shown no signs of regression yet.

Just throw it up to Kittle why not!?

George Kittle with the touchdown with three defenders around him!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/GJXtwpcUC1

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 29, 2024

He's still one of the best receiving TEs in the league, and he'll be playing in a great offense. You're getting an excellent discount on a player that can reasonably score 20 or more PPR points multiple times this season, and has a solid floor as well.

Honorable Mention: Courtland Sutton

Worst - Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans

Pollard's efficiency and overall production have taken a huge hit over the last two seasons. On film, it appears that he's lost at least a bit of a step, as he's dealt with a lot of injuries and is now 29 years old. But the Titans offense is the biggest problem here.

It was putrid last season. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward was easily one of the worst performers in the NFL, and none of their players were fantasy must-haves. It might be much the same this season. There's a new coaching regime in Tennessee, but Ward still struggled mightily in the preseason.

Great hustle by Chazz Surratt!

SEAvsTEN on FOX
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/fCfwXy09Rm

— NFL (@NFL) August 24, 2026

Ward didn't play well against good teams in college, and his film shows too much tendency for "backyard quarterbacking" and improvisation, rather than playing within the structure of the offense. Tennessee's offensive line is also struggling, and defenses are able to key in on the run handily.

Pollard never has much space to run. He was one of the better tackle avoiders in the NFL in 2024, but averaged under 4.2 yards per carry. The starting RB on one of the NFL's worst three offenses likely needs plenty of pass-catching upside to be relevant in fantasy football. Pollard doesn't have that.

Waiting until the later rounds and drafting someone like Pollard gives you an untrustworthy starter and robs you of the most important asset a fantasy football team can have -- an elite, high-volume RB.

Round 8 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Godwin's last two seasons were marred by injury. It's not like that makes him a bad player. He's likely to be the primary slot option for the Bucs, and in 2024, he was one of the best WRs in fantasy football altogether before he suffered a season-ending injury.

The veteran drew a lot of praise in training camp, with many remarking that he looks like his old self. He's a steal in drafts. Round 8 is insanely cheap for him -- especially considering that Emeka Egbuka (toe) is five rounds more expensive and not fully healthy, with a nagging turf toe ailment.

Nine days until we see Chris Godwin Jr. and Baker Mayfield connecting like this again 🤩 #WeAreTheKrewe pic.twitter.com/K1nVNJLy8K

— SleeperBucs (@SleeperTBBUCS) September 4, 2026

Godwin didn't transform from a great receiver to a total loser because of two injury-riddled seasons. He's still awesome, and at this price, has strong league-winning potential.

Worst - Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

JCM (groin) had a short-lived breakout stretch in 2025 that was followed by a long stretch of absolutely miserable production. If you had him in your starting lineup during that stretch, there's a strong chance you missed the fantasy playoffs. He was a massive liability.

His 27-point contest against the Chargers in Week 5 was followed by eight games with 5.1 or fewer fantasy points. That's not just benchworthy; that's not justifiably startable. He had a few nice games to end the season, but he's simply missing so many crucial elements from his game.

Chris Rodriguez probably maintains his goal line role for the Commanders because Jacory Croskey-Merritt is not capable of running through linebackers. Doesn't have the strength or power to do so even with some speed built up. pic.twitter.com/NoHxG9Jf2Q

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) November 13, 2025

Croskey-Merritt was an undrafted rookie. It's not a great idea to expect them to do much for fantasy purposes, generally. And the Commanders' offensive line is in bad shape, as is their entire offense -- they were not very productive last season, and they lost their star left tackle to a season-ending injury.

Additionally, RB Rachaad White, who joined the team for 2026, is a great pass-protector and very solid pass-catcher. He's far better in both areas than JCM, so PPR-scam upside for the second-year man will likely be minimal.

Round 9 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Interestingly, Johnston ranks tied for No. 5 in the league for touchdown catches (total) over the last two seasons, with 16. He's getting an offensive coordinator upgrade, moving from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel, and that should benefit his production.

Johnston is a big-bodied WR who excels most after the catch. He was used in an "X" receiver role in his first three seasons, which doesn't suit him well. He's not especially adept at making contested catches, so that's tough for him.

Justin Herbet LAUNCHES it to Quentin Johnston for a 65-yard TD 🎯

Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/h1wr48fiC4

— NFL (@NFL) August 28, 2026

QJ should perform quite well with more short-range targets and more ability to run after the catch, where he's more of a mismatch than he is in contested catch situations. He could be the most-targeted of all the Chargers' pass-catchers, which would make him a huge steal in Round 9.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray

Worst - Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers

Coker isn't a bad receiver. He's pretty solid. The problem is, of course, the Panthers offense, for all the reasons listed above in the Tetairoa McMillan section. This offense is hardly capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant receivers, and especially not consistently.

Panthers QB Bryce Young throws for an average of 180 passing yards per game, with an average of just over 18 completions per game. Coker may have a solid game here and there, but there's a strong chance this whole offense regresses from last season, especially considering the injuries on the offensive line.

Round 10 - Best and Worst Draft Picks

Best - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

I did a lot of victory lapping on Sam LaPorta and a lot of dogging on Kincaid after I was low on the latter and high on the former early in their rookie seasons in 2024. Since then, both have dealt with several injuries, and LaPorta hasn't been able to replicate his rookie season success.

While I expect LaPorta to have a good year, it's also notable that Kincaid has fallen so far in drafts. He's showcased very solid efficiency and plays in a good passing offense. It doesn't help that he's not a great blocker, so he doesn't see the field as much as he could, but he's still a solid pass-catching TE.

DALTON KINCAID WHAT A CATCH TO TIE IT

BUFvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/y4wUrQgjb5

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2026

Having quarterback Josh Allen slinging passes to him with a bazooka of an arm helps things as well. The Bills traded for WR DJ Moore in the offseason, which could contribute to many fantasy drafters being low on Kincaid.

Still, if you want to punt tight end, he's a good pick to make late. He's fallen too far for a tight end that scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in five of his 12 contests in 2025, even when taking into account his numerous injury issues.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert

Worst - Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

It's hard to pick "worst" players in these late rounds, because the bar for production that you expect from them is so low. Mahomes isn't a great pick, though. He was quite good last season, but that was due to an unreasonably high rate of running the ball.

Mahomes doesn't run that much normally, and after tearing his ACL, he's unlikely to do so this year, at least for the first half of the season. Starting him early on might not be a great idea. The Chiefs have one of the most barren pass-catching rooms in the NFL.

There are 12 quarterbacks I'd rather draft than Mahomes, without question, and many of them go after Round 10.

After Round 10 - Best and Worst Picks

Best targets after Round 10:

• Jared Goff
• Tyler Shough
• Rashid Shaheed
• Malik Willis
• Keenan Allen

Worst targets after Round 10:

• Tyjae Spears
• Travis Hunter
• Nicholas Singleton
• Malik Washington

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