Thunder Dan's Second Half Bold Predictions for Fantasy Baseball (2026)

July 22, 2026

Thunder Dan's second-half fantasy baseball bold predictions for 2026. Some of his bold predictions include players like

Who doesn't love a good hot take, right? Sometimes it feels like we get a lot more of those in the industry these days than we get well-researched, data-driven takeaways. I've always tried to trend towards the latter, but I'll admit that they are a lot more boring and a lot less fun!

With the MLB season pushing into its final chapter, it's time to speculate as to how certain players and teams will finish writing their story. Perhaps my takes are less spicy than others, but I stand by each of them, and I think they all have a pretty decent chance of coming to fruition.

Let's look at five bold predictions for the second half of the 2026 fantasy baseball season!

The Philadelphia Phillies Finish With Three Starting Pitchers in the Top Ten

Do the Phillies have possibly the best rotation in all of baseball? While Zack Wheeler (10 wins, 2.16 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) missed the first month and a half of the season, he's been simply awesome and ranks behind only Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler on the Yahoo Player rater at SP.

Cristopher Sanchez (12 wins, 2.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) ranks eighth overall and has a legit shot at the NL Cy Young award if Misiorowski is going to have his innings managed down the stretch. He should pass up Shohei Ohtani, who is taking a break from pitching (for how long), and Foster Griffin (who can't keep it up forever).

The hot take part of this is that Jesus Luzardo will sneak into the top ten with a big second half. He's currently sitting at nine wins on the season with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but he has been lights out over the last month!

Jesus Luzardo is on a heater 🔥

Last 42 1/3 IP - 1.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 63:16 K:BB

I hope you bought him on the low!pic.twitter.com/7beUkca6gD

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) July 21, 2026

Luzardo is a guy with ace-level stuff, and we have been waiting for him to eliminate the blow-up innings that have plagued him in the past. He's starting to show signs of the type of dominance that we know he's capable of, and I'm ready to get hurt all over again as someone who has touted his potential before.

He's cut down on the home runs allowed, and has a career-high 50.3% ground ball rate right now. He's always had massive strikeout upside in the past, but if he can add the type of run prevention that comes with more ground balls (like Sanchez does), then we are looking at some elite fantasy baseball output.

Oh, and don't forget about Aaron Nola! He may still have an ERA over 5.00, but his underlying numbers are trending in the right direction, and I firmly believe that he belongs on fantasy rosters. I snagged him in at least one league where someone cut him earlier in the year, and I would recommend doing the same (he's only 48% rostered in Yahoo leagues).

Fernando Tatis Jr. Will Be a Top-5 Player Down the Stretch

If you were frustrated with Tatis's lack of power production early in the season, take some solace in the fact that despite his low home run total, he is still the 35th-ranked player in 5x5 formats.

He was incredibly unlucky earlier this year, as he's been hitting the ball hard all season. His batted ball metrics were no different than last year, so some positive regression was bound to come his way eventually.

And has it ever! Tatis is raking right now with six homers in the last month. He's the 7th-ranked player in that rolling window, and number two overall in the last two weeks (.325, 3 HR, 9 R, 10 RBI, 4 SB).

Fernando Tatís Jr cranked this homer 474 feet.

After zero homers in his first 55 games, Tatís now has 8 HR in his last 45 games #ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/Y9gUu9xdSw

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 22, 2026

The rest of the Padres offense is warming up, too. Manny Machado is hitting bombs, and Jackson Merrill has seemingly found his stroke. Even Ty France is red hot, and with the entire lineup trending up it's only going to create more opportunities for Tatis to keep increasing his fantasy value.

I think he manages to get to 20 HR before the season is over, and he could easily push for 40 stolen bases with how aggressive he's been on the basepaths lately. He's setting up for a huge finish, so I hope you held on through the tough times because Tatis is about to make it all worthwhile.

Michael Petersen Wins the Closer Job in Miami

The Marlins have to be sick of seeing Pete Fairbanks blow games, right? His latest meltdown cost Miami a chance at a 1-0 win over a very good Brewers team, and his ERA now sits at 7.42 through 30.1 innings, yikes!

William Contreras WALK-OFF BLAST! pic.twitter.com/iDNu7OS5OU

— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2026

If this were your old Marlins team, I would say that they don't care too much and they'll just keep rolling him out there. But this Miami team is actually pretty good, and they're currently only a half game out of the final Wild Card. It's a shame that Miami is getting some peak Eury Perez production right now as well as some retro Sandy Alcantara dominance, yet their bullpen has failed to nail down leads late in the game.

Enter Petersen, who has been one of the most stable forces in that pen, piling up 51 strikeouts in 43.1 innings with a 2.91 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Peterson has the same type of strikeout stuff that Fairbanks has (29% K%) but is getting significantly better batted ball results (3.28 xERA vs. Fairbanks's 5.10).

I am not saying that it happens this week, or even next week. But I think Petersen will get a chance to close if Fairbanks falters again and the Marlins are much more likely to replace Fairbanks with someone already on their roster than they are to try and trade for a closer before the deadline (since the prices of relievers are likely going to be quite high).

Miguel Vargas Finishes in the Top Ten Overall

Perhaps this isn't too bold considering that Vargas is already sitting at 15th overall right now! I am not sure too many touts had him turning in this type of season in Chicago, but he's been one of the biggest breakout hitters in baseball this year.

His Statcast metrics suggest that he has actually underperformed! He has the 7th-best xwOBA among qualified hitters and is hitting 26 points lower in batting average than expected.

Vargas has 21 home runs and 11 steals through his first 364 at-bats. The only thing holding him back is a .247 average, which the numbers suggest could improve.

I think Vargas could easily hit 35 home runs and finish with 100+ RBI and 20 steals, providing first-round value for fantasy managers.

The Brewers Fix Lance McCullers Jr. Making Him Fantasy Relevant

We all agree that Milwaukee is officially a pitching factory, right? Just look at what has happened with poor Freddy Peralta after he left! And if we need current success stories, then look no further than Kyle Harrison (before his injury), Shane Drohan, and Aaron Ashby.

The Brew Crew needs more pitching, however, as Brandon Woodruff is done for the year, Brandon Sproat has been inconsistent, and Logan Henderson has struggled to stay healthy. They also want to manage Misiorowski's innings, which means they'll need to have a sixth starter in the mix. We saw McCullers used in bulk relief in his first Brewers appearance, and the results were already pretty solid.

Lance McCullers of the Milwaukee Brewers with a Nasty 92mph Cutter. 😨 pic.twitter.com/9belJ5ZIut

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 21, 2026

He allowed two runs, but also struck out four while compiling a 33% Whiff% and 34% CSW%. It's pretty clear that he still has solid stuff. If Milwaukee can fix his control (11% BB% or worse in four straight seasons), then perhaps we have a pitcher on our hands who will have some fantasy value.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the Brewers can harness his talent and get the most out of the 32-year-old veteran righty. For now, he's on my watch list, but if he gets a chance to move into that starting rotation I'll be ready to pounce on him as a low-risk flyer who could provide some solid stats down the stretch.

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