RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 4 in 2026, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 4 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
We had a lot of interesting and surprising starts this week, and this time we're going to zero in on three right-handers who had strong starts. First, we'll deep dive into Walker Buehler's resurgence in San Diego. Then, we'll look at Brandon Sproat's best start for the Brewers. We'll finish it off by breaking down Bailey Ober's 10-strikeout performance against the Reds on Sunday.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of April 20.
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Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres – 5% Rostered
2025 Stats: 126 IP, 4.93 ERA, 5.66 FIP, 5.5% K-BB%
04/16 vs. SEA: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Buehler was fantastic on Thursday night against Seattle, holding the Mariners to just two runs while striking out seven, his highest strikeout total since 6/11/25. That makes two straight strong starts for Buehler, who shut out the Rockies at home in the start before this one. The Padres have sort of piecemealed the back-end of their rotation together with some veteran bounce-back candidates. Could Buehler be one of the reclamation projects that might actually work?
Originally a first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2015, Buehler was a huge pitching prospect coming up for Los Angeles, with many scouts viewing him as a future frontline starter. He lived up to the hype at first, with Buehler posting a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP between 2018 and 2021.
Unfortunately, Buehler underwent his second Tommy John surgery in 2022 and missed the entire 2023 season. He simply hasn’t been the same since returning, with Buehler posting a 5.10 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 201.1 innings between 2024-25. He made the Padres rotation on a minor league deal, and now he’s finally flashing some of his prior talent.
Buehler works with a deep seven-pitch arsenal, consisting of a cutter, knuckle curve, four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and sweeper. That’s a lot of pitches, and Buehler has been mixing in all of them with some regularity. He’s thrown all but the sweeper at least 10% of the time, and he’s thrown no pitch more than 20.8% of the time. This represents a change in approach for Buehler, who was very four-seam heavy when he first came up with the Dodgers.
One reason Buehler may’ve been so reliant on the four-seamer when he first came up was its exceptional velocity. He threw over 98 mph when he was first promoted, and averaged 95-96 during his best years. Now, he’s averaging just 93.9 mph with his four-seamer, and he’s only throwing it 16.3% of the time this season.
Buehler’s velocity is below average, and it’s hard for him to overcome such a drop when the fastball itself is rather straight and lacks significant movement.
Buehler has just a 2160 RPM spin rate with the pitch, and his 16.8 inches of induced vertical break are fine, but not anything special. Softer fastballs like this can still be deceptive and effective when paired with strong movement, spin, or good location, but Buehler has struggled with all three over the past few years. His four-seamer has been roundly crushed since his return in 2024 (.312 AVG, .583 SLG against since 2024), and this season has been no different.
It’s only been four starts, but batters are hitting .500 off Buehler’s four-seamer thus far. This most recent start against Seattle marks his highest four-seam usage rate so far this season, but he still only threw it 22% of the time. The fact is, this fastball has become a liability for Buehler, and he’d be best served to use it less often if he can. This is clearly a pitch that major league hitters can handle.
The good news is, Buehler seems to be taking a new approach on the mound in San Diego. His most used pitch this season has been his 89.8 mph cutter, which he’s thrown 20.8% of the time. The cutter has been quite effective for him so far, with opponents hitting .167 with a .167 SLG and a .231 wOBA against. The expected stats are in line with these results as well, with a .176 xBA, .259 xSLG, and .261 xwOBA.
Going from a four-seamer to a cutter is a common move among pitchers with weak or deteriorated fastballs, and thus far, Buehler is making this transition quite effectively.
Buehler’s cutter has surprisingly strong movement, with 10 inches of induced vertical break and five inches of glove side movement. Cutters don’t tend to move much by design, and in most cases, it’s a pitch intended to induce weak contact, not generate whiffs. That’s why Buehler’s 23.1% whiff rate with the cutter is actually pretty strong all things considered, and he got three of his 12 whiffs with the cutter on Thursday.
Here’s an example of the cutter from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 21, 2026
Not a bad pitch, and if Buehler is going to make the shift from a former fireballer to a cutter/secondary junkballer, he’s well positioned to do so. My biggest concern with this cutter is that opponents crushed it for a .357 AVG and .619 SLG last season. It has a .249 career average against, so last season may’ve been an outlier (very little went right for Buehler last year), but time will tell.
The gem of Buehler’s arsenal has arguably been the knuckle curve, a pitch that has confounded MLB hitters for years. A 77.2 mph offering, Buehler’s curveball has been an incredibly effective strikeout pitch at times for him. He’s begun throwing the pitch slightly more often this season, with an 18% usage rate thus far in 2026 compared to a 14.2% career usage rate.
If Buehler intends to throw this pitch more often, I am all here for it. A softer pitch for Buehler, the curveball has always been his go-to strikeout weapon. It has slowed a bit over the years, as have all of his pitches, but he still gets 14.2 inches of drop and 11.8 inches of glove-side movement with the pitch. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 21, 2026
Looks nasty there, and Buehler has a monster 40.6% whiff rate with the pitch so far, including four of his 12 whiffs in the start against Seattle. Buehler probably won’t go back to the 27-29% K rates of his heyday, but he might be able to sustain an average or even slightly above average strikeout rate with increased curveball usage.
Considering he only had a 16.3% K rate last season, this would be a big improvement. Heck, he had a pitiful 5.5% K-BB% last season, so seeing gains in both strikeouts and walks is an encouraging sign.
Verdict:
Buehler is back and healthy and in a starting rotation, which wasn’t a guarantee coming into the season. He earned a spot in San Diego’s rotation, and he’s making the most of this opportunity. Buehler seems to be taking a new, “junkball” style approach on the mound. He’s no longer firing in fastballs at a 40-50% rate, and that’s a good thing considering how much his fastball has deteriorated over the years as Buehler has dealt with injuries.
He’s only throwing 94 mph these days, and the pitch lacks exceptional spin and movement, making it very hittable for opponents.
He’s begun using his cutter more frequently and earlier in counts, which allows him to rely less on the fastball. The cutter has a unique shape and could be effective for him, but it was hit hard last season, so we’ll have to see if he can sustain these results.
His best pitch is still that darn knuckle curve, which has an impressive 40.6% whiff rate so far. That pitch could help Buehler post average or maybe even above-average strikeout numbers this season, especially if he continues to raise his usage. He isn’t someone I’d want to use in every start and every situation, but in the right matchup, Buehler could be a good streamer.
That’s a marked improvement over where he’d been in 2024-25, when he was practically unusable in fantasy. His next start comes Wednesday at Colorado, and I think I’d avoid him there. The Rockies don’t scare me, but Coors Field does. Even the Rockies have a .336 wOBA at home so far this season, so it’s probably a start I’d avoid if I can.
Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers – 6% Rostered
2025 Stats (AAA): 121 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 11.7% K-BB%
04/16 vs. TOR: 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
A key piece of the deal that brought Freddy Peralta to the Mets, Sproat had his best start for the Brew Crew on Thursday. He held the Blue Jays to just one run in 6 2/3 innings, striking out six in the process. It was the first time Sproat had made it out of the fourth for Milwaukee this season, and he was very efficient, needing just 75 pitches to get this deep into the game.
Sproat is one of many young, interesting arms getting an opportunity in Milwaukee. Can he make the most of it, or was this just good fortune?
Originally a second-round pick by the Mets in 2023, Sproat was considered a big deal prospect in their system, often being grouped with pitchers like Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Christian Scott. The Mets must’ve felt they had a surplus of young prospects and turned Sproat into a more proven veteran via trade. For Milwaukee, they’ve got an intriguing right-hander with a deep repertoire.
Sproat works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, cutter, sweeper, curveball, four-seam fastball, and a changeup. He boasts above-average velocity at 96.7 mph with the sinker and 97.1 mph with the four-seamer. We’ll start with the sinker, as it has been Sproat’s most-used pitch thus far this season. He’s thrown the sinker 31.8% of the time, though he only threw it 17% of the time against Toronto.
The sinker is hard, yes, but it also has strong movement. Sproat has averaged 5.6 inches of IVB and 16.3 inches of arm-side movement with the sinker this season. That creates a unique shape that can be tough for hitters to pick up on and elevate. Here’s a look at Sproat’s pitch movement profile for this season (sinker in orange).
Sproat has a 52.6% ground-ball rate with his sinker this season, and had a 58.3% ground-ball rate in limited action last season. Batters have found success against this pitch so far, with a .313 AVG against all time. It’s only 193 sinkers thrown in total, so it’s fair to say this is still a very small sample size. There are some encouraging numbers for the sinker as well, including a .252 xBA against last year despite a .321 AVG against.
Sproat has yet to allow an extra-base hit against the sinker this season. The pitch was quite effective for him in the minors last season as well, with a .229 xBA, .307 xSLG, and .295 xwOBA against. The sinker has been his primary fastball as a major leaguer, and while the results have been mixed, the pitch's velocity and movement are stellar.
This could be a strong fastball to anchor Sproat’s repertoire and serve as a plus groundball pitch.
Sproat’s next most used pitch has been the cutter, which he’s thrown 25% of the time this season and 32% of the time against Toronto. A 93.7 mph offering, it’s rather hard for a cutter, and has nine inches of rise, which is a lot for a cutter. It lacks horizontal movement, which is normal for a cutter like this, especially a hard cutter.
This probably won’t be a big strikeout pitch for Sproat, as he only has a 15.8% whiff rate with the pitch thus far, and only had two whiffs on 13 swings Thursday.
It’s also had some mixed results against opponents, with a .300 AVG and 1.000 SLG against, but also a .251 xBA and an 83.4 mph average exit velocity against. This pitch seems to have replaced Sproat’s slider, as he has yet to throw a slider this season. The cutter is a few mph harder than the slider, but it lacks the sharp, distinctive movement we expect from a breaking ball. Even in the minors, the results against Sproat’s slider were rough, so perhaps he’s attempting a new approach.
He wasn’t a big strikeout guy as a prospect when he reached Triple-A (he has just an 8.1 K/9 at Triple-A over parts of two seasons), and I wouldn’t expect him to be a big strikeout pitcher in the majors either, especially given his reliance on the cutter.
Another pitch that saw increased usage in this start was the sweeper, which Sproat threw 20% of the time against Toronto compared to a 13.5% usage rate on the season. An 86.6 mph offering, Sproat’s sweeper is soft relative to his fastballs and has very unique movement. It has 6.2 inches of rise and 11 inches of glove-side movement. Here’s a look at his pitch movement profile again (sweeper in gold).
And here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 21, 2026
Looks pretty nasty there, and Sproat got four of his 12 whiffs with the sweeper in this start. Overall, he has a 40% whiff rate with the sweeper this season, which would be outstanding if he could sustain that whiff rate. Batters are hitting just .167 off the sweeper with a .131 xBA and .204 xwOBA.
The pitch has much more movement than his abandoned slider did, and has the most unique movement of any of his pitches. In the minors last year, opponents had a .125 xBA and a 33.8% whiff rate against Sproat’s sweeper. It’s a small sample size in the majors, but so far Sproat’s sweeper is looking like a bona fide strikeout pitch.
One encouraging stat from this game was Sproat’s ability to limit free passes. Walks have been a big issue for Sproat so far this season, and he struggled with walks in the minors as well. He issued a total of 10 walks in 10 1/3 innings in his first three starts, having issued at least three in each game.
He only allowed one in this start and had his highest first pitch strike rate (62.5%) and chase rate (37.8%) of any game this season. Perhaps this was just a fluke, or perhaps Sproat is finding better command of his cutter and sweeper than his fastballs. It’s only one start, so we’ll need to see if this trend continues, but it’s a positive development for Sproat nonetheless.
One last concern I have with Sproat is the seemingly short leash Milwaukee has for him. The Brewers are a team that looks to maximize efficiency and every little detail on the diamond, and they often aren’t willing to leave a starter in too long, especially young and inexperienced starters like Sproat.
Sure, he finished 6 2/3 innings in this game, but he also threw only 75 pitches. He hadn’t made it out of the fourth in any of his starts prior to this one, and he hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in a game yet this season. That could mean a lot of quick hooks for Sproat, especially if he is allowing a lot of walks and letting batters drive up his pitch count.
It might be tough for him to get many wins and quality starts with this approach.
Verdict:
Sproat looked good on Thursday, showing us why he was a big prospect and why he was expected to be a key contributor for Milwaukee this season. The stuff for Sproat is pretty darn good, with him sitting between 96-97 mph with his two fastballs. He also boasts a hard cutter and a high movement sweeper that has been racking up whiffs so far. His curveball has also done a decent job of generating whiffs so far, though he has only thrown the pitch 12.8% of the time.
The biggest issues for Sproat at this time appear to be a short leash and inconsistent control. He’s only made it out of the fourth inning once so far this season, and he’s allowed at least three walks in three of four starts. He also hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in an outing yet this season. That could seriously limit his fantasy upside, as he often won’t be in a position to get a win or quality start.
When it comes to ratios, I think he could possibly put up a sub-4 ERA with this stuff, but it might come with a high WHIP given his trouble with walks at times. It might be tough to rely on him for strikeouts as well, since he hasn’t put up an above-average K rate since Double-A. Sproat is definitely an interesting talent, but I don’t think he’s quite ready to break out yet.
He’s a player I’ll certainly be monitoring throughout the season, and if he shows us solid control and the ability to pitch deeper into games, he could become a fantasy asset. For now, he’s probably best left on the wire in standard leagues. It's tough to recommend him as a streamer given his inability to pitch deep into games.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins – 21% Rostered
2025 Stats: 146.1 IP, 5.10 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 14.3% K-BB%
04/19 vs. CIN: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 4 BB, 10 K
Ober was downright dominant for the Twins on Sunday, fanning 10 Reds in the tough luck no-decision. It was the first time since 2024 that Ober racked up double-digit strikeouts, and the big righty now has 17 strikeouts over his last two appearances, totaling 12 1/3 innings. Is this the start of a new era for Ober, or is this just a flash in the pan?
Originally a 12th-round pick by Minnesota in 2017, Ober wasn’t exactly a high-end pitching prospect, but he was expected to be a future starter for the Twins. The most notable thing about Ober as a prospect was his size. Listed at 6-foot-9, 260 pounds, Ober’s big frame had the Twins viewing him as a mid-rotation innings-eater type.
He fit that bill between 2023-24, making 57 starts for the Twins in that time. Unfortunately, things really went south for him in 2025 when he had a 5.10 ERA in 27 starts.
Ober works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a changeup, four-seam fastball, slider, sweeper, sinker, and curveball. He may have six pitches total, but he’s thrown both the sinker and curveball less than 4% of the time this season, and the same was true last year. Ober has been very reliant on the changeup and four-seamer this season, which isn’t necessarily a deviation from past years, but he is using the changeup more than ever so far.
Ober has always leaned heavily on his changeup, but this year he is throwing it a career-high 34.3% of the time. The changeup has long been Ober’s most effective pitch, with a .207 opponent average against the pitch all time. This season, batters are hitting just .182 against the changeup with a .333 SLG and a .277 wOBA.
An 83.1 mph offering, Ober’s changeup is noteworthy for its exceptional movement. Ober gets 6.4 inches of rise and a whopping 19.8 inches of arm-side movement with the change. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 21, 2026
And here’s a look at his pitch movement profile (changeup in green).
See how much the change deviates from the league average in horizontal movement? That makes the pitch tough to read and strike well for opponents. He has an 85.6 mph average exit velocity against the changeup so far this year, and has consistently had an average EV below 86 mph + with this pitch over full seasons.
He had four of his 14 whiffs with the changeup in this start against the Reds, and he had four of his 13 whiffs with the changeup in his previous start against the Red Sox.
He only has a 22.4% whiff rate with the pitch so far this season, but he’s routinely had whiff rates around 30% with the pitch in past seasons. He likely has a little room to gain in this department, and overall, the changeup could be a plus strikeout pitch, which is great given how much weak contact Ober induces with the pitch. Even amid his struggles and injuries over the past couple of seasons, Ober’s changeup still looks like a strong offering.
His next-most-used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, which Ober has thrown 33.2% of the time this season. His four-seam usage has been declining over the past few years, and 33.2% is the lowest it’s ever been. Perhaps that is due to Ober’s sharp velocity decline.
Ober was never a fireballer, averaging 92.3 mph in his first season in the big leagues, but his fastball velocity has experienced a precipitous decline over the past three years. He was averaging 91.7 mph in 2024, then 90.2 mph in 2025, and now he’s at 88.8 mph in 2026. Ober is only 30 years old, so he’s not at the age where we’d expect his velocity to drop off like this. He was at 88.7 mph in this most recent start, so he’s not exactly on the upswing either.
It’s a little concerning how slow Ober throws these days; there aren’t many starters who can thrive or even survive with an 88 mph fastball, especially a right-hander like Ober. His four-seamer has been crushed for a .296 AVG, .444 SLG, and .375 wOBA so far, along with a 93.7 mph average exit velocity against. Ober has some strong flyball tendencies, including a 52.6% fly-ball rate with the four-seamer all-time.
That means things could get ugly with the longball for Ober, given how soft he throws, how hard batters hit the ball, and how they’re able to elevate the pitch with consistency. He had a rough 1.85 HR/9 last season, and I’m a little skeptical of his current 0.69 HR/9. It’s only been four starts, plus he has a 6.3% HR/FB ratio, nearly half that of his career mark.
He’s only allowed two home runs so far this season, but I just can’t see his home run rate staying this low. It could easily double over time, which would really wreck Ober’s ratios.
While the changeup and four-seam represent 67.5% of Ober’s pitches this season, he also mixes in a slider 15.4% of the time and a sweeper 10.6% of the time. The slider is soft at 83 mph and lacks big, sweeping movement. Ober has just 6.5 inches of break and 4.2 inches of glove-side movement with the slider, making it an underwhelming offering.
Batters are only hitting .217 against the slider this season, but Ober has a comically low 13.9% whiff rate with the pitch as well. 13.9% is what we expect from a mediocre/average fastball; it is a pitiful result for a breaking ball.
The whiff rate on Ober’s slider was just 21.3% last season and 22.7% in 2024. It’s simply not a good strikeout pitch, and it’s also been quite hittable at times. Last season, batters hit .321 with a .606 SLG off Ober’s slider, and in 2024, they hit .276 with a .504 SLG. That makes me believe the current results from the pitch are unsustainable, and he will likely experience regression over time.
The sweeper has actually fared much better for Ober so far. Batters are hitting just .154 off the sweeper, along with a .154 SLG and a .180 wOBA. He also has a monster 55% whiff rate with the pitch so far. Even the best starters can’t maintain a 55% whiff rate on a breaking ball, so this number will definitely regress. Still, Ober had a 40.4% whiff rate with the sweeper last season, so perhaps there is a little strikeout juice there after all.
A 76.5 mph offering, Ober’s sweeper has stronger horizontal movement than his slider, averaging 13.2 inches of glove-side movement so far. Here's an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 21, 2026
He has been on a tear with this pitch over his last two starts, putting up a 100% whiff rate against the Red Sox and a 71% whiff rate against the Reds. Between the sweeper and the changeup, Ober has two solid strikeout pitches that could allow him to maintain an average or even above-average strikeout rate.
Verdict:
Ober has had his share of ups and downs over the past few years, and this may just be the next stage in his evolution. On the plus side, he has embraced using his changeup more often and is using it heavily against both righties and lefties. The changeup is his best pitch, so a changeup-heavy approach could be the right move to make at this stage of his career. He is also getting some monster numbers on his sweeper so far.
While I wouldn’t expect a 55% whiff rate to hold, this could be another plus strikeout pitch in Ober’s back pocket. His sweeper usage was up to 17% against the Reds, and it would be nice to see him incorporate the pitch between 15%-20% on a regular basis.
Unfortunately for Ober, his velocity continues to decline, and he is now averaging just 88.8 mph with his four-seam fastball. His four-seam fastball is the slowest among qualified starters in MLB, and he’s the only qualified starter with a four-seamer under 90 mph. Ober could sort of pitch around this, but the problem is that he allows a lot of hard contact, allows a lot of flyballs, and is susceptible to the longball.
There’s just no way his current 0.69 HR/9 or 6.3% HR/FB rate holds, and when those regress, the ratios could start climbing.
There are definitely things to like about Ober’s game, and I think he can hang on as a mid-rotation veteran starter despite poor fastball velocity. For fantasy, I think he’s best used as a streamer in positive matchups. The Reds have really struggled at the plate this year, with a 24.9% team K rate and a 74 wRC+ as a club, the lowest wRC+ of any team in the majors.
This start looks like Ober taking advantage of a weak opponent. His next start comes Saturday at Tampa, and while the Rays have been roughly league average with a 103 wRC+, they also have the second-lowest team strikeout rate at 18.6%, limiting Ober’s upside in that matchup. He’s still streamable if you need him there, but it’s basically an average opponent with low strikeout potential.
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