Stuff+ Standouts - Identifying Potential Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Breakouts

February 19, 2026

Thunder Dan's Stuff+ fantasy baseball sleepers and 2026 starting pitcher breakout candidates who rate highly in Stuff+ metrics despite not having elite surface numbers.

You guessed it - I'm discussing starting pitchers for the upcoming 2026 MLB season. When it comes to drafting starting pitchers, there's always a case to be made for drafting some reliable arms who are proven commodities, especially earlier in drafts.

But I'm almost always chasing upside with my pitching picks, especially in the middle and late rounds. If there's one pitching metric that encapsulates a pitcher's pure talent and potential, it just might be the Stuff+ metric. You can be a good pitcher in the major leagues without top-notch stuff, but the margin for errors gets slimmer for those pitchers who rely more on control and weak contact. If we are hunting for upside, then a place to start is at the top of the charts in Stuff+.

In this article, I will take a look at several pitchers who had borderline elite Stuff+ last season, but still didn't deliver the results in ERA, WHIP, and/or strikeouts that we were looking for in fantasy baseball.

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Stuff+ Stat Overview

I want to start with a quick introduction to the Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ statistics, in case you are still unfamiliar with them.

The great Eno Sarris created Stuff+ as a way to try to quantify the potential effectiveness of every pitch thrown. Stuff+ evaluates the physical characteristics of each pitch - the velocity, movement, and spin rates - to identify the filthiest pitches.

Location+ attempts to quantify the effectiveness of each pitch based on where the pitcher throws each type of pitch - both inside and outside the strike zone. Location+ factors in the count (3-2, 1-1, etc.) for when each pitch was thrown, so it attempts to provide important context for each pitch.

Pitching+ is not a combination of Stuff+ and Location+; it is its own comprehensive metric. Pitching+ does look at many contextual factors, including the opposing hitters' handedness, to give an overall idea of not only how good a pitcher's stuff is, but how good they are at using it.

As far as the relationships between the statistics go, last season, starting pitchers' Stuff+ ratings had a larger correlation (0.76) with Pitching+ than Location+ did (0.46). That means it's far more likely to see a pitcher with a very good Stuff+ rating and an average or below-average Location+ rating still come out with a pretty solid Pitching+ rating.

The opposite (average Stuff+, but good Location+) is far less likely to have a good Pitching+ rating. In fact, only five of 26 pitchers with a Pitching+ rating of 108 or higher had Stuff+ ratings that were below average (less than 100). If you're wondering, those pitchers were Blake Snell, Jose Soriano, Logan Gilbert, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby.

Stuff+ Standouts for Fantasy Baseball

For this article, I used the 50-inning cutoff for starting pitchers to include a larger data set of nearly 200 pitchers when examining some trends. The average change in Stuff+ and Location+ of those pitchers in the sample from 2024 to 2025 was around 7.0, while the average change in Pitching+ was 9.5.

I included the SIERA for all pitchers in the data set and found that changes in Stuff+ (-0.49), Location+ (-0.45), and Pitching+ (0.57) all have negative correlations with changes in SIERA from 2024 to 2025, meaning pitchers' SIERAs went down as these metrics went up, with Pitching+ being the most statistically significant.

Here are the pitchers who had a Stuff+ rating of 107 or better in 2025, with their Location+, Pitching+, and SIERA all included as well.

You're not going to find Greene, Skubal, Crochet, or Sanchez on any "breakout lists" this season, but you'll surely see Misiorowski and Perez getting hype, and deservedly so.

For this article, I will be focusing on pitchers who will be available later in drafts and showed us some elite stuff in 2025 without getting elite results in strikeouts and/or ratios.

2026 Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates

The median score for Stuff+ is 100, and one standard deviation is about a little more than 7.5 points. So I'm using a Stuff+ score of 107 as my cutoff for this article, while also acknowledging that some compelling pitchers just below that are also candidates for improvement in 2026 (i.e., Emmet Sheehan, Edward Cabrera).

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

NFBC ADP: 133

Schlittler flashed some nice strikeout numbers (27.6% K%) over his first 73 innings in the major leagues, finishing with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts. He has a big fastball that averaged 98 mph and relied on it probably a bit too much, throwing it 55% of the time. But the fastball got swings and misses and produced solid batted-ball results, so it's a really good foundation to build around.

He throws a hard cutter at 91-92 mph that breaks almost as much as a gyro slider, which got good results, but he's really lacking a solid third pitch as his curveball, sinker, and sweeper all got hit pretty hard. We'd also like to see some better command, as Schlittler walked 10.2% of hitters and had below-average Zone% rates on both his fastball and cutter.

However, he had a sub-35% Ball% last season, suggesting he probably should have been closer to an 7-8% walk rate, so there's some optimism there. You can see on my scatter plot below where Schlittler and Shane Baz (more on him in a minute) were outliers in BB% vs. Ball%.

Some more #MLB Starting Pitcher data from 2025. Here are the Ball% and BB% rates for all starters who pitched 75+ innings last season. A 🧵...(1/4)#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/xjymU8B7Uj

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) January 7, 2026

His Location+ grade of 97 shows that he's got plenty of room for improvement there, and he fits the mold of "good stuff, but needs to harness it" pretty perfectly.

He likely overperformed in ERA by at least a half run, but he showed enough strikeout upside to suck me in. If he can find an effective offspeed pitch as his third option in the arsenal, he'll be positioned to take the next step that we are looking for from a young, hard-throwing starter.

I'm not quite as bullish on Schlittler as I am on other youngsters being drafted in the same range (Misiorowski, Sheehan), but I am intrigued by his potential, and I won't be surprised if he pitches very well this season.

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP: 145

Pepiot makes another appearance this year, after showing up in this article last season and turning in a pretty solid 2025 campaign in which he tossed 167 innings to the tune of a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Rays' righty has one of the better fastballs in the game, not based on velocity (he averages around 95 mph), but based on movement, as he averaged 19.1 inches of induced vertical break.

Ryan Pepiot's 2Ks in the 1st pic.twitter.com/WOtNP13D6B

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 5, 2025

The resulting rising action of his four-seamer makes the pitch seem faster than it actually is, and he can live up in the zone against hitters without having elite velocity.

Pepiot had some reverse splits last season, with right-handed hitters actually hitting him better than lefties. He also gave up 26 home runs last year, 17 of which came at Tampa's temporary home ballpark, George M. Steinbrenner Field, which proved to be a bit of a hitters' paradise last year.

Pepiot is one pitch away from being a potentially elite starter. His fastball, cutter, and changeup all check out nicely, but his slider got hit incredibly hard last year (.577 xSLG). That wouldn't be an issue if it weren't his third-most-used pitch at 17%. He was more slider-heavy to righties (24%), which helps to explain his reverse splits, and he really needs to consider reshaping the pitch or dumping it altogether.

His slider has very poor vertical movement and a really bad Stuff+ grade of 99 (the average slider rates around 110). I'll be very curious to see what he throws here in spring training. He's a solid target in this ADP range and a good bet to at least replicate last season's numbers as a worst-case scenario.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: 153

The former Cy Young winner has a full season under his belt now since his arm surgery, and we usually see pitchers who undergo TJ surgery take more than a year to regain their old form, if they can. I am not promising anything here, but Alcantara's stuff last season was only marginally less sharp than it was in his peak form in 2021 and 2022.

It was really the command of his pitches that he struggled with, leading to some really bad results early in the year. But as the season went along, Alcantara began to show signs of reclaiming that command. He posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21.6% K%, and just a 6% BB% in the second half.

The price is nice here for a guy who know can eat innings at an elite rate. If he regains some of his strikeout ability, he stands a good chance of being a solid fantasy asset as he can post quality ratios and pitch deep into games. I'm in for a bounce-back from Alcantara this year.

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP: 157

Rasmussen quietly had a fantastic year in 2025. After several injury-plagued seasons, he made 31 starts, logged 150 innings, and finished with a sparkling 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His numbers were nearly identical to those of his 2022 campaign in Tampa, the last season he was fully healthy.

Rasmussen was just an average strikeout pitcher in 2025, whiffing 21.7% of opposing hitters. However, he had excellent batted-ball results on his top two pitches - his four-seam fastball and cutter. He sits at 95-96 mph with the heater, while his cutter averages 90 mph and 4.5 inches of glove side run. It's a nasty pitch with a Stuff+ rating of 108 that he uses to bust lefties in on their hands.

Drew Rasmussen, Nasty Cutters. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/EIbsYkC8Vb

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2025

My only complaint is that he's so heavy on three pitches in his arsenal, as he's throwing fastball, sinker, and cutter around 90% of the time. If he upped his sweeper or curveball usage, he could probably generate more strikeouts. He posted a sub-11% SwStr%, and that's not likely to improve unless he throws more breaking balls. But what he's doing is getting pretty good results, so tinkering further may not be necessary.

You know what you're getting with Rasmussen - a very high floor and a super safe pick in this range. But without more strikeouts or more innings, his ceiling is a bit capped. He's absolutely the safest target of all the pitchers featured in this article, but also has arguably the lowest ceiling at the same time.

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP: 204

Baz is a really intriguing arm in this range for me. Like Pepiot, he gave up a bunch of home runs in that bandbox of a home stadium last season (18 of his 26 HR allowed) and had an ERA that was a full two runs higher at home than on the road.

The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field this season, but Baz will call Camden Yards home after being dealt to the Orioles in the offseason for a bunch of prospects. If we look back at his 2025 season, it was easily the most innings he had ever pitched in his career (166), doubling his previous career-high from 2024.

He's still just 26 years old and is now several years removed from Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of the 2023 campaign.

Baz features a fastball that tops out around 97-98 mph and a nasty knuckle-curve that had a 125 Stuff+ rating last season (second-best of all curveballs in MLB). He ditched his slider for a cutter and also throws a changeup as his main offspeed pitch to lefties.

Look out, #Orioles fans 👀

Shane Baz threw his knuckle curve 27% last season — and it produced 86 strikeouts, his most dangerous weapon.

In 2024? Just 20% usage and only 27 Ks.

Will Drew French have him lean on it even more?#birdland pic.twitter.com/J0TPtZgKNX

— Jason Moore (@mooformoore5) February 17, 2026

His 4.87 ERA and 1.33 WHIP were tough on ratios last season, but all of his ERA indicators suggest he underachieved in ERA (SIERA of 3.95, xERA of 3.88 are most notable). Like Schlittler, his Stuff+ grades out really well, but he rated below average in Location+ (97). His 35% Ball% was a good sign that he could bring the walk rate down a few ticks this year.

Honestly, he just needs to solve his fourth pitch issue, or go exclusively fastball-curveball-changeup. He threw his slider and cutter a combined 18% of the time, yet those pitches accounted for 11 of the 26 home runs he allowed. The slider was just awful with a 1.035 xSLG.

Baz is potentially only a few tweaks away from being a really good starting pitcher, and I think the change of scenery can probably only be a good thing for him. He's still young and has the type of stuff we are looking for in a dominant power pitcher.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 254

Full disclosure, Ryne Nelson also belongs here in the discussion with Leiter as another young righty with really good Stuff+ metrics who is available later in drafts, but he's already going to be featured in my next article about SIERA overachivers, so I'll skip him here to avoid redundancy.

Leiter has a full season under his belt, tossing 155 innings in 2025 across 29 starts. But he still didn't flash the type of strikeout upside that we saw in the minors, finishing with a 22.9% K%. He also saw his walk rate increase to 10.4% as he struggled with his command.

But Leiter showed some signs of growth as the season progressed. When you compare his first and second half stats, it's clear that something clicked for the youngster by midseason.

• First Half: 4.37 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 19.9% K%, 11% BB%
• Second Half: 3.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 26.3% K, 9.7% BB%

We can take a look at how his pitch mix evolved throughout the year. There was a clear change made by Leiter right around the midpoint of the season.

Leiter continued to increase his fastball usage, which was a good thing since it's really his best pitch. He also started throwing his changeup more and his slider less, which also makes a lot of sense considering his slider checks in with just a 102 Stuff+ rating (good sliders are usually 110+) and the changeup checks in at 108.

Jack Leiter 99 mph Elite Fastball😳

2490 RPM
20" iVB pic.twitter.com/WS88wH48Xw

— Eric Yu (@Eric35_Yu) July 27, 2025

Leiter has arguably the most room for improvement of anyone on my chart earlier, since he checked in with only a 91 Location+ rating. That was the fifth-worst of the 175 pitchers in my data set! He might be the biggest post-hype prospect in baseball, and I can't help but think that spending time with Jacob deGrom, MacKenzie Gore, and Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen will be a good thing for him as he tries to continue to improve his control and secondary pitches.

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