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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 17 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 17 of the 2025 fantasy football season. The fantasy football playoffs are here, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injuries among offensive and defensive players, which may skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a relatively new process, there may be some minor adjustments along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 17 sorted alphabetically. There are no teams on bye in Week 17. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded), injured player (red text), and slot coverage (bold text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers indicate a favorable matchup (or the defender allows a high rate on the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Dallas Cowboys.
The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The visual below shows offenses from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The visual below shows the Seattle Seahawks to the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 17 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 17 WR/CB Matchups
Week 17 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Chris Olave vs. Kemon Hall
Since Week 10, Olave ranks eighth in expected fantasy points per game (18.3), sixth in first-read target share, and second in air yards share. That's WR1-type usage and production over the past several weeks. Without Devaughn Vele for the rest of the season, Olave should win leagues in Week 17.
The Saints will face the Titans defense, which uses zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. They've been bleeding fantasy points, eighth-most, while using man coverage (No. 23). Olave earns a target on 25 percent of his routes against zone coverage while generating 1.94 yards per route run.
Specifically, the Titans use two-high looks at the eighth-highest rate while allowing the third-most fantasy points per dropback. Olave leads the Saints in first-read target share (27.1 percent) and a 34.9 percent air yards share against two-high coverages.
Olave has been inefficient with 1.44 yards per route run and -1.7 yards per target over expected (YPTOE). This could be a sneaky game for Juwan Johnson, as he garners an above-average target rate and produces well against zone coverage.
Kellen Moore has been deploying Olave in the slot and out wide. The Titans' pass defense allows the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the slot and the eighth-most to receivers lined up out wide. Olave projects to face Titans slot cornerback Marcus Harris, who left Week 16 with a knee injury. It sounds like Harris will miss the rest of the season.
Safety Kevin Winston Jr. was covering the slot, but went to injured reserve, so it's a small sample of slot reps for Harris. Among slot coverage players, Harris allows the 26th-most slot coverage yards and the 11th-highest passer rating. The Titans will turn to Kemon Hall, who allowed all five targets to be completed for 60 yards in Week 16.
Olave should be set up to smash in Week 17.
Jakobi Meyers vs. Mekhi Blackmon (updated with Sauce Gardner expecting to play)
It's hard to fade the primary options in the Jaguars offense playing well. Since Week 10, Meyers has led the team with a 27.8 percent first-read target share. Meyers was behind Parker Washington in yards per route run (2.12). The expected fantasy points and production around 11-12 suggest Meyers has been more of a WR2 or WR3.
The Jaguars will face a beat-up Colts secondary with Charvarius Ward on injured reserve and Sauce Gardner missing time, though Gardner could return in Week 17. The Colts' pass defense deploys man coverage at the eighth-highest rate and allows the 28th-most fantasy points per dropback on the season.
Meanwhile, the Colts defense allows the 28th-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage (No. 25). Meyers has been productive against man and zone coverage while earning an above-average percentage of targets on his routes run.
When we filter by specific coverages, the Colts defense deploys Cover 1 at the 11th-highest rate and Cover 0 at the sixth-highest. Meyers garners a 26.4 percent first-read target share while being targeted on 24 percent of his routes against Cover 1 and 0. He produces 1.70 yards per route run when going up against Cover 1 and Cover 0.
The visual above shows the Jaguars' top pass-catchers against Cover 0 and 1, which doesn't include Meyers based on the table sorting. Brian Thomas Jr. and Washington lead the team in yards per route run, though Trevor Lawrence doesn't tend to lock onto one or two receivers as his first read.
That last statement couldn't be truer because we've seen the Jaguars use Travis Etienne Jr. as the focal point with nearly 19 fantasy points per game since Week 10. Meyers trails Etienne in fantasy points per game during the span.
If Gardner returns in Week 17, he likely covers Thomas more so than Meyers, since Gardner rarely goes into the slot (4.5 percent). Meyers projects to face Johnathan Edwards, who allows the 29th-most fantasy points per route run and the 11th-highest yards per route run. The Colts' defense doesn't bring a ton of pressure, ranking 27th in pressure rate.
Lawrence should be able to carve up the Colts' defense like Brock Purdy in Week 16. Jauan Jennings' stat line of 6-5-71-1 touchdown might be a projectable outcome for Meyers since Jennings moves all over the field like Meyers.
Terry McLaurin vs. Trevon Diggs
UPDATE: Marcus Mariota has officially been ruled out, and Josh Johnson will start instead, which downgrades the matchup and offense overall.
The matchup against the Cowboys looks juicy, though Marcus Mariota has officially been ruled out which could derail the chances of a boom performance from one of the primary Commanders pass-catchers. Since Week 10, McLaurin leads the team in first-read target share (29.5 percent) and yards per route run (2.64). Deebo Samuel Sr. trails close behind in first-read target rate (26.5 percent) while generating 1.73 yards per route run in Weeks 10-16.
The Cowboys' pass defense has been allowing the second-most fantasy points per dropback while using man coverage (No. 20). Meanwhile, they give up the second-most fantasy points per dropback when deploying zone coverage (No. 11).
McLaurin has been significantly better against zone coverage, leading the team with 2.90 yards per route run among the primary options. Unfortunately, McLaurin hasn't been efficient with under one yard per route run (0.97) against man coverage while leading the team with a 31 percent target rate.
Furthermore, the Cowboys allow the second-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes of 20 or more yards. McLaurin generates 6.88 yards per route run while being the first read target 47.6 percent of the time when targeted on deep passes, as seen below.
The Cowboys' pass defense deploys single-high looks at the 13th-highest rate, yet allows the third-most fantasy points per dropback. When we filter by single-high coverages, McLaurin leads the team with a 38.6 percent first-read target share and 2.43 yards per route run. Since Josh Johnson is starting instead of Mariota, it will be a downgrade at quarterback in Week 17.
Trevon Diggs returned in Week 16 after missing eight weeks with a knee injury. Diggs allows the 35th-most fantasy points per route run and 34th-most yards per route run. The matchup and high-end usage of McLaurin is good, but it's hard to expect similar results with a Josh Johnson starting at QB.
Week 17 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Quentin Johnston vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
Since Week 10, the Chargers rank 26th in neutral script pass rate (49 percent), tying them with the Browns and Packers. That shows the Chargers have been more run-heavy in neutral scripts, limiting the passing volume from Justin Herbert. In Weeks 10-16, Johnston garnered an 18.9 percent first-read target share, 1.23 yards per route run, and a 7.7 expected fantasy points per game.
Keenan Allen leads the team in first-read target share since Week 10, yet Ladd McConkey produces the most fantasy points per game. Like the Jaguars offense, the Chargers have been spreading the ball around between four primary pass-catchers, with Tre' Harris stealing opportunities. After Johnston torched the Cowboys for 104 yards and a touchdown, it might be hard to fade him, though he only had five targets.
The Texans' pass defense uses zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Specifically, they've been using single-high looks at the 11th-highest percentage, yet giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per dropback.
Johnston tends to be more productive and highly targeted against man coverage, not zone. He has been one of the worst producers against zone coverage, averaging 1.07 yards per route run while being targeted on 14 percent of his routes. Allen and Oronde Gadsden II lead the Chargers with over two yards per route run against zone coverage.
Against single-high coverages, Johnston boasts a similar first-read target share (22.8 percent) compared to Allen's 24.6 percent. We've seen Allen's route share take a slight dip, but he has been targeted on a team-high 26 percent of his routes when facing single-high coverages. Johnston has been slightly efficient with a 1.1 yards per target over expected and 1.73 yards per route run versus single high based on his usage, as seen below.
Johnston faces a Texans pass defense that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide. Furthermore, the Texans defense brings pressure at the ninth-highest rate, while the Chargers offensive line allows the sixth-most pressure.
Johnston projects to face Derek Stingley Jr., allowing the 22nd-fewest fantasy points per route run and the 40th-lowest yards per route run. Be careful deploying Johnston into lineups because he remains a boom-or-bust option against one of the best defenses, especially via the passing game.
Adonai Mitchell vs. Christian Gonzalez
Speaking of run-heavy offenses, the Jets fit that mold, ranking last in neutral script pass rate (42 percent) since Week 10. That indicates we need the Jets pass-catchers to be efficient, though that's probably ironic given the quarterback issues. Mitchell averages 14.6 expected fantasy points per game since Week 10, suggesting WR2-type usage.
Maybe regression hits for Mitchell, though it probably won't against the Patriots in Week 17. The Patriots use man coverage at the 11th-highest rate, yet they allow the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Patriots' pass defense allows the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback while using zone coverage (No. 19).
Mitchell can win against man coverage. He earns a team-high 38 percent target rate while producing 1.91 yards per route run against man coverage. Surprisingly, Mitchell leads the Jets in yards per route run (1.83) against zone coverage while earning a target on 23 percent of his routes. Mitchell could be a volatile option in lineups for Week 17.
That's especially notable because the Patriots' pass defense uses single-high looks at the 13th-highest percentage while giving up the 16th-most fantasy points per dropback. Mitchell earns a 30 percent target rate while producing 1.98 yards per route run when facing single-high coverages, as seen in the visual below. Like Mitchell's expected fantasy points, there's a chance regression hits in his favor.
Mitchell projects to face Christian Gonzalez, who allows the 27th-fewest fantasy points per route run and the 17th-lowest yards per route run. Since Week 10, the Patriots' pass defense has been allowing the 26th-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide, where Mitchell primarily plays.
It's within the range of outcomes for Mitchell to score a touchdown against the Patriots based on his usage and expected fantasy points. However, single-digit fantasy points might be the most probable outcome.
Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. DJ Turner II
Since Week 10, the Bengals' pass defense has been allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers out wide. The Bengals' top cornerback, DJ Turner II, left with an illness in Week 16, and we're expecting him to be back in Week 17. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, we've seen Michael Wilson and Trey McBride take on massive roles with near-elite usage and production in Weeks 10-16.
Harrison missed two weeks with a heel injury and returned to run the fourth-most routes behind McBride, Wilson, and Elijah Higgins. The Cardinals could've been easing him back into the rotation, or Wilson and McBride remain the primary pass-catchers for the offense. There should be massive passing volume in their favor since the Cardinals rank first in neutral script pass rate since Week 10.
They face the Bengals defense, which uses man coverage at the 12th-highest rate while giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, they've been allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage (No. 21).
Wilson leads the team with 2.80 yards per route run against man coverage while being targeted on 26 percent of his routes. However, Harrison ranked second on the Cardinals with 2.38 yards per route run while leading the team in target rate (34 percent). Wilson should feast and continue producing well, and there's a chance Harrison posts a spike week in Week 17.
The Bengals' pass defense uses single-high looks at the eighth-highest rate and bleeds the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback. McBride leads the Cardinals in first-read target share (32.3 percent) when facing single-high looks. Wilson (26.3 percent) and Harrison (26.2 percent) have nearly identical first-read target shares against single high. However, Harrison's 2.13 yards per route run bests Wilson's (1.82) when facing single-high coverages, as seen below.
Typically, we think of the Bengals defense being beatable. However, Turner allows the 23rd-fewest fantasy points per route run and 17th-lowest yards per route run as the Bengals' top cornerback. That's who Harrison projects to face, as Turner remains one of the most underrated cornerbacks.
The Cardinals' passing volume should be in Harrison's favor, though it's hard to rely on him with confidence in Week 17.
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