Week 16 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint (2025)

December 21, 2025

Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 16 of the 2025 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts to avoid in Week 16 fantasy football lineups.

Welcome to the fantasy football semifinals! Congratulations on making it this far!

Everything from here on out should be viewed through a one-week lens (except for a D/ST stash). If you are skittish about a matchup or an injury, don't be afraid to pivot.

Below, we sort through the stats and find 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

Emeka Egbuka (WR, TB) at Carolina

The Carolina Panthers struggle to slow down opposing running games. The Carolina Panthers have also allowed only 10 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. There's a clear advantage for the Tampa Bay offense in this divisional matchup.

Then, there's the question of volume for Emeka Egbuka. The rookie saw his lowest snap share (outside of the Week 6 game that he departed early) of the season. That, of course, coincided with the return of Mike Evans and, to a lesser extent, Jalen McMillan. Here's how the snap counts and targets shook out:

Evans almost doubled Egbuka in targets, despite playing just over half of the snaps. Godwin led the team in routes and snaps by a wide margin. Evans' numbers should go up in what is now considered a must-win game for the divisional crown.

There are too many mouths to feed in the Tampa Bay passing game (and, a reminder, that tight end Cade Otton didn't play) for me to confidently start Egbuka.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) vs. San Francisco (MNF)

With 44-year-old Philip Rivers under center, Michael Pittman Jr. (predictably) took a step back in production. Rivers only threw for 120 yards on 18 completions. Pittman accounted for 26 of them on three catches.

Seattle is one of the toughest matchups for both quarterbacks and wide receivers. The Monday night date with San Francisco is much softer, but is it soft enough to warrant a Pittman start? Nothing we saw in the first game of this Rivers era gave me confidence that Pittman (or Tyler Warren, for that matter) has upside.

Rivers averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and had just 25 completed air yards. That's below Mitchell Trubisky and Tanner McKee, and just 10 more than running back Cam Akers. Throwing downfield isn't an option for the old man's arm.

Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) vs. Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals are the worst defense against running backs and tight ends. The Dolphins had shifted to a run-heavy approach, and Darren Waller has seven red zone targets in as many games. This is the dream matchup for De'Von Achane and Waller.

Jaylen Waddle? Not so much. The Bengals (surprisingly) surrender the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

Then everything changed when head coach Mike McDaniel named seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers as the starting quarterback over Tua Tagovailoa. Waller isn't a smash start in the best matchup possible anymore. Achane should be fine, but scoring opportunities could decrease. Waddle is the biggest wildcard of them all.

Jaylen Waddle said Quinn Ewers doesn’t lack confidence.

“He’s got a swag to him.” https://t.co/fnEmiK28dk

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) December 18, 2025

Despite the words of encouragement from his teammates, it's hard to imagine that the Dolphins will significantly alter their offensive philosophy. Tagovailoa didn't throw for more than 175 yards during Miami's recent four-game win streak (before the Monday night embarrassment in Pittsburgh). That's led to mixed results for Waddle. Ewers will be treated as a game manager, and that doesn't scream upside for Waddle.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PIT) at Detroit

In four of the last five games, Kenneth Gainwell is putting up numbers you expect to see from a wide receiver, not a running back.

The 26-year-old tied or led the team in targets in two of those games. In the other two, he was just behind D.K. Metcalf. When counting in his dud game of this stretch, he's still averaging 6.2 targets per game. That's better than the season-long averages for Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin Jr., and George Kittle.

Unfortunately for Aaron Rodgers, dump-offs aren't the way to beat the Detroit defense. They're fifth in fewest receptions, second in fewest yards, and one of four teams that haven't allowed a receiving touchdown to the running back position.

It's also fair to wonder if Gainwell's increased utilization in Week 15 was the result of Jaylen Warren's illness. Warren will be more involved (he saw his lowest snap percentage since Week 1, not counting the Cincinnati game he left injured) and more efficient, putting Gainwell back in the flex box, but the receiving upside doesn't look as fruitful this week.

Tony Pollard (RB, TEN) vs. Kansas City

What's one of my mottos? Don't chase the points!

Tony Pollard has back-to-back 100-yard games, his only two of the season, heading into Week 16. The Cleveland defense has been slipping, and the San Francisco front seven is riddled with injuries. The Kansas City defense is a different story.

This season, the Chiefs have surrendered the sixth-fewest rushing yards and fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. If you look at games since the bye week, the yards per carry averages for opposing running backs are well below average.

Hampton was a half-yard below his season-long average. All of the other backs were about a yard or more (Marks was at 0.9) off their pace. That adds up quickly, especially for a running back like Pollard, who has been almost completely uninvolved in the passing game during his hot streak. He has two catches for 11 yards in his last three games, despite favorable matchups in that regard.

Kareem Hunt (RB, KC) at Tennessee

On the other side of this matchup of teams eliminated from the postseason, the outlook looks better for Kansas City running backs, at least on paper. The tide has changed since Tennessee defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons returned to the lineup. Marks, Travis Etienne Jr., and Quinshon Judkins were held to 2.4 yards per carry or fewer. Christian McCaffrey was slightly better at 3.3.

Not surprisingly, as Kansas City's offensive line continued to lose key players, Hunt's efficiency declined: 4.1 yards per tote in Dallas, 2.5 against Houston, and 2.1 last week against Los Angeles. Plus, as Isiah Pacheco reintegrates himself back into the offense, Hunt's snap counts and touches have slipped.

Like Pollard, Hunt is scarcely used in the passing game. He has had two games all season with more than one reception.

It's back to touchdown-or-bust for the veteran runner. Without Patrick Mahomes (and possibly with some less-than-motivated players), the Kansas City offense won't be what we've watched for the past half-decade.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) at Denver

Fresh off a 44.3-point fantasy performance in Week 15 (the fifth-best score of the fantasy season), we're fading Trevor Lawrence.

While not nearly as good as he was last Sunday, Lawrence has strung together QB1 games in three out of four weeks (and was QB13 in the other).

Trevor Lawrence: Since November

- T-2nd in total TDs (16)
- 6th in total Yards (1535)
- 5th in EPA/Play
- 4th in Adj EPA/Play
- 2nd in Success %
pic.twitter.com/Usn1z6iBeO

— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) December 17, 2025

But take a look at who the Jaguars have played in that stretch: Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets. That's two defenses in the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season (Tennessee & New York), a defense that's sixth in that metric over the last four weeks (Arizona), and Indianapolis, which was without its All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.

The going gets tougher in Denver. The Broncos give up fewer than 14 fantasy points to quarterbacks, good for seventh-fewest in the league. Dating back to Week 8, only one quarterback (Marcus Mariota) has scored more than 15.9 fantasy points.

Jaxson Dart (QB, NYG) vs. Minnesota

Since he became the Giants' starting quarterback, Jaxson Dart scored fewer than 19 points twice and has five games over 23 points. Take away the games (before he was a starter), where he ran a couple of designed runs, and Dart is averaging 25 fantasy points per game. That would rank first among all quarterbacks.

So, I understand how it can be difficult to pivot to another signal caller, but this Minnesota matchup is no joke.

The Vikings allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, but the numbers have been even more brutal over the last month. Dak Prescott, last week, is the only quarterback to throw for over 200 yards since Jared Goff did it in Week 9. Prescott still had one of his worst games this season because he failed to score a touchdown.

That was the same case for Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and the Washington quarterbacks. There's been zero passing or rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks in five weeks.

Dart isn't in QB1 territory this weekend for the first time since he burst onto the fantasy football scene.

Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) vs. Buffalo

As hard as we've attacked the Cincinnati matchup, we've avoided the Buffalo matchup for tight ends.

Harold Fannin Jr. has been one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy football season, and the perfect solution for fantasy managers who opened the season streaming the position. He's, for all intents and purposes, the top receiver for the Cleveland Browns, and the rapport with Shedeur Sanders is there.

However, the Bills have - for nearly the entire season - been the best defense against fantasy football tight ends. They're a point better per game than the next team.

Plus, stopping Fannin should be the number one priority on Buffalo's defensive game plan. Who else is going to beat them? Jerry Jeudy leads wide receivers with 519 yards. Isaiah Bond is next at 288. Judkins is averaging 3.1 yards per carry since the team's Week 9 bye.

Fannin is the offense, and that's not ideal when the matchup tells you to sit him.

Brock Bowers (TE, LV) at Houston

It's the league's worst offense versus the best defense. There had to be a Raider in this column.

That distinction, once again, this week belongs to Brock Bowers. It's not that the Houston Texans are the stingiest defense against tight ends. They're not, although they still rank inside the top 10. It's the legitimate concern that the Raiders may not score any points on Sunday.

As of this writing, Las Vegas' implied point total is 11.5 points. The next lowest? The Cleveland Browns at 16!

It doesn't matter if Geno Smith or Kenny Pickett is under center; Bowers has been mostly touchdown-dependent in recent weeks, especially given the gauntlet of tough defenses that the Raiders have faced. We're talking 46 yards against Denver and 28 yards versus Philadelphia. That's not top-3 tight end numbers.

Bowers could get the one touchdown that oddsmakers think the Raiders could score. But those aren't odds worth gambling on.

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