2025 Fantasy Basketball Risers and Fallers: Usage and PIE Rates

Thunder Dan Palyo dives into the data from the first month of the NBA season to determine which players are having a bigger impact in the box score this season and should be on your fantasy basketball rosters.

It's only been about three weeks since the NBA season began. Still, I really don't think it's too early to start trying to identify some trends that are emerging for players' advanced statistics when compared to their performance last season.

We went into our drafts with a specific vision of how players would be used this season. We based that on a few different criteria, with one of those being how they performed last season. But many players changed teams. Younger players had a full offseason to work on the weaker aspects of their game. Still, other players have new coaches or are being asked to move into a different role, even if they are still on the same team.

I suppose the point is that it's never too soon to analyze some statistics and see who some of the most improved players have been in addition to those who have been disappointing for fantasy owners so far. This article will attempt to draw some conclusions about why we are seeing certain players overperform or underperform thus far and identify which early-season trends may stick over the larger sample size of games (and which won't.) All stats were current as of Tuesday, November 11.

Why Do Usage and PIE Rates Matter?

Simply put, they help us better understand which NBA players have the greatest impact on the game (and the box score) when they're on the floor. We obviously want players who are on the floor for as many minutes as possible since they can't rack up stats while on the bench, yet minute totals in a vacuum can be misleading, as there are plenty of players who have logged big minute totals without being worth rostering in fantasy basketball.

Do you remember Tony Snell? In the 2016-2017 season, he played in 80 games for the Bucks and played 30 minutes a night. He had a 12% USG% and a PIE of 6.5. He finished with averages of 8.5 PTS, 3.1 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.2 BLK, and 1.1 threes. Tony was out there "doing cardio" a lot of the time and is the poster boy for the type of player we want to avoid in fantasy hoops, no matter how many minutes they're playing. He was so invisible one night that he became a meme.

A player's usage rate (USG%) reflects what percentage of their team's possessions are "used" on them. Every possession that ends with a field goal attempt, free throw attempt, or turnover is counted as "used" by that player. A simpler way to think of it is that they are the last player to touch the ball from their team on a possession.

Usage rates correlate highly with scoring, and we are always interested in players who are getting up a lot of shots during their time on the court. Usage rates don't reflect efficiency, just volume, so there are a lot of players who have high usage rates, but can also hurt FG% and turnovers in category leagues. Cam Thomas comes to mind. His 31.4% USG% is good for 12th in the league, but it comes with 40% shooting, 1.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He also averages only 0.6 combined blocks and steals. His usage is elite, but his PIE is just 9.5, which is below league-average.

Players who don't score a lot are more reliant on rebounding, assists, or defensive stats to make a fantasy impact, and that's where PIE comes in.

PIE stands for "Player Impact Estimate," and it attempts to quantify a player's overall statistical contribution during the course of a game. A player's points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and turnovers are all factored into the formula for PIE and compared to the total number of statistics compiled in the games they play in.

The league average PIE among players who have played at least 15 minutes or more per game this season is 10.2. One standard deviation is 2.9, so a good way to view PIE ratings would be as follows.

• 13-16: Very Good
• 16-19: Excellent
• 19 or above: Elite

Just to put some names with those numbers, here are all the players from our sample (15 minutes or more of playing time per game) with a PIE of 19 or higher.

Yep, it's a short list of stat-stuffers.  Jokic is on a different planet and has been even better this season so far. It's wild. And there's one up-and-coming youngster just outside this list who I'll get to shortly.

Fantasy Basketball: 2025 PIE Risers

Here's our list of players who have increased their PIE by at least one standard deviation (approximately three points) or more.

I don't have a particular order that I want to tackle this list, so I apologize if it feels like I am jumping all over the place. Let's talk about the Lakers' duo first, shall we?

Teammates in NBA HISTORY to each have 200+ points & 50+ assists through their first seven games of a season:

Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves (2025-26)

That’s it. pic.twitter.com/5zfpGzW16o

— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) November 10, 2025

This one feels like it has one of the easiest explanations, right? LeBron James has yet to play a game for the Lakers and is nearing a return in the next week or so. It also doesn't hurt that Reaves has played three games without Luka, and Doncic has played two games without Reaves. We expected this type of production from Luka to start the season, but even the most passionate Austin Reaves enthusiasts have to admit they probably didn't expect such huge numbers from "Hillbilly Kobe."

Reaves is very much a sell-high, but you'd better aim very high because he showed last year that he can still put up very solid numbers with both Luka and LeBron in the lineup.

We got only two games out of Bennedict Mathurin before he went down with an injury. But if those two games are any indication of what we can expect from him on the "Haliburton Gap Year" Pacers this season, we are looking at a big season from the fourth-year wing.

Alex Sarr stands out as a second-year player who has clearly elevated his game.

There's a French 7-footer the NBA needs to worry about, and his name isn't Victor Wembanyama.

Nobody expected a lot from Alex Sarr in his second year, despite averaging these numbers:

🔸 13.0 PTS
🔸 6.5 REBS
🔸 1.5 BLK

Three weeks into the season, Sarr's taken a huge leap for… pic.twitter.com/QQiUPH2NZQ

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) November 10, 2025

The second overall pick has outperformed his fellow Frenchman (Zachharie Risacher) and looks like he could be the best pick from his draft class. His numbers are up across the board, including an impressive 2.5 blocks per game. He's also taking fewer threes, which has helped his FG% improve from 39.4% to 51.9%. His offensive game looks so much smoother in year two.

He's inside the top 25 right now, even while playing only 29 minutes a night. If he's on your roster, congratulations! He's oozing potential and could be a fantasy force for years to come.

But let's not bury the lede, look at what Jalen Duren is doing in Year Four! The guy is on the cover photo of this article. Did you think we weren't going to talk about Duren's massive breakout?

Duren's 19.9 PIE is good for sixth-best in the NBA and just outside that elite group that I listed in the last section. The obvious difference is his scoring production as he's averaging just over 19 points per game, but he's also upped his rebounding numbers and, most notably, his defensive stats (1.1 steals, 1.2 blocks).

Jalen Duren has been sensational to start this year. Defending at a high level, getting to the line, absolute monster finishing at the rim. Belongs in MIP convos pic.twitter.com/adQfsCDKYw

— ALL NBA Podcast (@ALLCITY_NBA) November 8, 2025

Duren was knocked for his lack of defense in his first few seasons, but he's clearly making more of an effort on the defensive end this season. He's also got his FT% up to 80% this season and is taking twice as many attempts per game, a product of a more aggressive mindset on offense.

Being the pick-and-roll partner for an elite point guard like Cade Cunningham is going to lead to a lot of easy buckets this season. But Duren's face-up game and post moves have also improved. He's just 22 years old and looks like he could be the next dominant offensive center in the league. The sky is the limit.

Another player who is seeing an increased opportunity to start the season is Jaime Jaquez Jr. We've yet to see Tyler Herro in Miami, and the Heat have had injuries to both Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo - the other two high-usage players in the lineup - that have allowed Jaquez Jr. to shine.

Jaime Jaquez Jr’s clutch bucket to send it to overtime pic.twitter.com/kYLhZk5WkN

— 𝙃𝙀𝘼𝙏 𝙉𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 (@HeatvsHaters) November 11, 2025

The third-year player out of UCLA isn't likely to sustain this hot start (17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists on 57.5% from the field), but it's been great to see him play with such confidence after he took a step back statistically in nearly every category during his second season.

If you can sell high now, you do it, but the "other JJJ" should have a significant role in Miami all season, even if it's off the bench once the Heat get healthy.

I'm saving my Ajay Mitchell analysis for a later section, but a few other guards worth mentioning here would be Donovan Mitchell, Keyonte George, Jrue Holiday, Tyrese Maxey, and Josh Giddey.

Donovan Mitchell's PIE of 17.8 is a career-high and a good reminder that he can be an elite fantasy player when he's asked to do more of the heavy lifting in Cleveland. Darius Garland returned to the lineup a few games ago but may have reinjured himself, so we could continue to see Mitchell in peak form if Garland misses more time.

George is a guy I wasn't very high on coming into this season, with the glut of guards that Utah now has on the roster, but he took full advantage of Isaiah Collier's early-season absence to put up some impressive numbers. I think the sell-high window is going to close soon, as Collier is back and there's simply too many mouths to feed in Utah.

Jrue Holiday has turned back the clock in Portland and is proving he can still be quite impactful when he wants to be. His 8.8 PIE last year in Boston was 8.8 and 9.9 the year before (the two lowest of his career), reflecting the nature of his role with the Celtics as the last option on offense.

Jrue Holiday has become the most underrated player in the league again 🤷‍♂️

That's insane to say when you talk about a 35-year-old playing his 17th season.

Many thought Holiday was starting to decline on the Celtics.

But on a team full of talent but not a lot of leaders,… pic.twitter.com/kAVsT5fcs6

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) November 10, 2025

He's been one of the better late-round values in the draft, and as long as Portland is competitive this season, there's no reason to think he can't sustain a strong start.

Tyrese Maxey and Josh Giddey have both taken a significant leap into the 16+ PIE territory. Yes, Maxey has had the benefit of Joel Embiid being on a minutes cap and being held out of back-to-backs, but he's also just playing at another level, knocking down 44% of his threes and averaging a career-high 8.2 assists. He's the sixth-ranked player in 9-cat, and it feels like he's got the juice to stick around in the top-ten this year, even if Paul George and Joel Embiid do return to form. This is Maxey's team in Philly now.

Meanwhile, Giddey has been the catalyst behind one of the more surprising starts of any team in the league, as the Bulls are 6-4 through their first ten games. He's been on triple-double watch nightly, and while his scoring could take a hit when Coby White returns, he's still going to make a big impact with his rebounding and passing.

2025 PIE Rate Fallers

There are some players on the list with very small sample sizes who we probably don't need to waste much analysis on here, such as Isaiah Collier (played well last night), Brandon Miller, Zion Williamson, Jakob Poeltl, and Darius Garland.

Cameron Johnson is at the top of the list, to no one's surprise. I will admit that I whiffed on where I had Cam ranked this season, and I thought that he'd fit into Denver's scheme quite nicely. But he's been practically invisible out there and putting up some Tony Snell-esque production so far this year. I've held on longer than most, but I'm ready to admit that he's indeed a cut.

Bradley Beal has been a cut since Week 1, and I've been pleading with people each week in my Cut List article to drop him, yet somehow he's still rostered in 67% of leagues - I can't really figure that one out (though I saw Josh Lloyd suggest the other day that perhaps as many as half of Yahoo leagues were "dead leagues").

The Desmond Bane era in Orlando is off to a rocky start. I am guilty of hyping up Bane this offseason as the "perfect fit" for Orlando at the shooting guard position, but he hasn't assimilated there nearly as well as I had hoped. He's still good at basketball, though, and has 22 points and seven assists in two of his last three games. He's going to be better, but it's very possible that he doesn't replicate his numbers from his last few years in Memphis.

Sabonis is playing through an injury, but Sacramento has also been a disaster to start the season. His scoring and assists are way down this year. I've seen him advertised as a great buy-low lately, and I agree to an extent, but let's at least acknowledge that something seems off a bit with him and that the way that this team has been constructed around him does him no favors.

The Jordan Poole experiment in New Orleans is off to a terrible start, and now he's hurt. He's been getting cut from a lot of teams lately, and I have nothing to say to defend holding him since the Pelicans seem content to hand things over to the rookie Jeremiah Fears.

I have to give one last parting shout-out to Al Horford, who remained a relevant fantasy player a lot longer than most NBA players. But he's officially a non-factor this season in Golden State in a reserve role and not even playing back-to-backs. You'd have to think this is Horford's swan song, and it's been one heck of a career.

2025 Usage Rate Risers

A quick caveat here is that I only included players in this list who had their USG% increased by 5% or more while also NOT seeing a decrease in PIE. The rationale would be that increased usage with a decrease in PIE wouldn't really represent an overall positive change in their performance.

A few notable omissions who fell into that category would be Brandon Miller, Andrew Nembhard, and Shaedon Sharpe. Miller and Nembhard haven't played much due to injuries, and Sharpe is trending towards Cam Thomas territory with a 41% FG% and 3.0 turnovers per game to go along with his scoring. At least he rebounds a bit and gets some steals!

The player we have affectionately come to know as "NAW" tops the list as he's been thrust into a starting role by Trae Young's injury. His usage was already high coming off the bench as a second-unit scorer, and now he's being asked to help carry the scoring burden with the starters. He's going to put up some solid scoring numbers for at least another month, so there's no urgency to sell high on him just yet.

Cam Thomas's injury has helped usher in the MPJ era in Brooklyn. Porter Jr. is chucking up shots like crazy and is still making them at a decent enough clip (46%) to where he's been a top-70 player. He's a good rebounder and his 84% free-throw shooting on increased volume helps, too. I would be looking to move him sometime in the first half of the season; however, as we know what a mess Brooklyn can be in the second half of a tanking season.

Now we can finally talk about Ajay Mitchell and his impressive start to the year. The Thunder are off to an 11-1 start to the season, despite not having their second-best player, Jalen Williams, and they've had some other important rotational pieces out for multiple games as well (Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso).

It was the perfect storm of injuries to clear a path for Ajay Mitchell's ascendancy. He's now starting for OKC alongside SGA and gives the Thunder another playmaker and scorer  - it's an embarrassment of riches.

Ajay Mitchell 21-6-4-3 (8/15 FG), 0 TOV pic.twitter.com/RtmbDmSWuJ

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) November 10, 2025

I keep thinking that Mitchell will surely come back to reality when Jalen Williams returns, but I'm not sure that OKC can put Mitchell back in the box after taking him out and allowing him to flourish. He won't finish the season averaging 17 points per game, but he's averaging 1.8 steals in just 28 minutes per contest while shooting 92% from the free-throw line on four attempts per game. His fantasy game is legit, and he should still be relevant in a reduced role.

Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam have been thrust into career-high usage courtesy of injuries to their superstar teammates Tatum and Haliburton. Siakam has really had to do some heavy lifting as the Pacers were without pretty much their entire starting lineup except him for a stretch already.

Siakam is doing his best Giannis impression at the foul line right now, shooting just 62% on 8.2 attempts per game. He's a career 75% shooter, so that should normalize a bit over time, but the increased volume still makes him more ideal for punt-FT% teams, and his 2.7 turnovers per game tie his career-worst.

The return of Andrew Nembhard and now T.J. McConnell should help a bit, as Siakam has had to do more ball-handling than he should be doing with Indiana so banged up.

Brown's been very impressive, averaging 28-5-4 on 52% shooting, and he's really only hurting you in turnovers and a lack of defensive stats. He was a guy whose preseason rank varied widely from expert to expert but he's proven that he was well-deserving of a pick in the third or fourth round.

The last guy I want to mention here is Jaden McDaniels, who is off to a roaring start, ranking 33rd in 9-cat through 11 games. The absence of Anthony Edwards for five of those games certainly led to more usage, but he's been back in the lineup for the last four games, and McDaniels' scoring has yet to slow down.

Jaden McDaniels becoming one of the top 50 players in the NBA is the single biggest storyline for the Timberwolves so far this season. pic.twitter.com/f0TTSq9NG5

— Kyle Theige (@KyleTheige) November 10, 2025

We've long drooled over McDaniels' upside in steals and blocks, and if his offensive improvement is legit, then he's going to be a potentially elite fantasy asset with his ability to contribute across the board in basically everything but assists.

2025 Usage Rate Fallers

Here's our "let's take a deep breath" list of underperformers. Again, the caveat is that these players all saw a decrease in usage AND a decrease in their PIE. A decrease in usage isn't as big a deal to someone like Jalen Suggs (-6%) as he's a player who derives a lot of his value from his defense. So Suggs doesn't make our list, but several other key Magic players do (and not Bane this time!)

There's no need to pile on Cam Johnson, but there he is again at the top of this list. Duncan Robinson is a fringe player, even as a starter in Detroit, so let's get to the guys who really matter.

There are Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, both sporting around a 6% decrease in usage. The arrival of Bane is certainly the culprit, and let's not forget that both Wagner and Banchero were the only show in town at certain stages of last season, as both guys spent some time out with injuries.

I am not overly concerned with either player, and their surface stats have only taken a small hit in overall production. But I think it's very likely that Bane, Wagner, and Banchero are all going to hold each other back in terms of ceiling. It's one of those trades that will likely end up being good for the Magic and their hopes of contending in the East, but that will be a net negative for their collective fantasy values.

It's been a relatively slow start for Jaren Jackson Jr., and Memphis, in general, looks like a hot mess between Ja Morant's temper tantrums and a bunch of injuries to important rotation pieces such as Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Ty Jerome. Managers were expecting more from him than 17 points per game from JJJ after he posted 22 points per game the last two seasons.

We knew Brandon Ingram would have a lesser role in Toronto than he did in New Orleans, and 25% usage is just fine as long as he can keep up the efficiency (50% from the floor, 90% from the line). He's just inside the top-50 and he doesn't lose any fantasy points for slamming water bottles, so ride the early production as long as you can until he inevitably gets hurt (or just sell high!)

Adem Bona enthusiasts have to be a bit bummed that it's been Andre Drummond who's getting the starts when Embiid rests. But with Embiid's knees already giving him some trouble, Bona could still emerge as an impact player at some point this season.

Notable 2025 Young Players

When pulling the data, some players didn't play at least 15 minutes per game last season to qualify for the comparison. Some of them are rookies, and others are just younger players who failed to play enough minutes to qualify. Here are those who have posted an above-average (10 or greater) PIE so far this season

Let's start with one of the most impressive rookies from this draft class thus far, Cedric Coward.

Cedric Coward this season:

- 14.8 PTS
- 6.2 REB
- 2.9 AST
- 52/44/91 shooting splits

Playing like the best rookie in his class.
pic.twitter.com/CmceKVowh3

— Grizzlies SZN (@Grizzlies_szn) November 10, 2025

Coward is coming off the bench, but is already very clearly Memphis's best option on the wing. There's no way he maintains a 51% FG% this season, but he's flashing a well-rounded game with production in other categories. He looks like the real deal and a player who should be on rosters all season long.

Jalen Smith is in his sixth season, but is still just 25 years old and has strung together arguably his best stretch of games since the 2021-2022 season. I wrote about him in my waiver article this week; he's criminally underowned right now, considering his high-usage role off the bench and very predictable production in threes, points, rebounds, and solid percentages.

Dylan Harper is hurt, but he looked great in his first handful of games. What the Spurs do with his minutes when he comes back with De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle installed as their starting backcourt will go a long way to determining his fantasy value this season.

Cam Spencer and Collin Gillespie have been thriving as point guards coming off the bench. Gillespie's window of viability was just extended with Jalen Green set to miss at least another month with his troublesome hamstring, while Spencer's value is tied to the absences of Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome.

Another young point guard turning some heads has been Ryan Rollins of the Milwaukee Bucks. An opening night injury to Kevin Porter Jr. opened up an opportunity for Rollins, and he's not disappointed.

Ryan Rollins has been an early season surprise for the Bucks pic.twitter.com/Y9UJw4aWOk

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) November 12, 2025

He's been a top-50 player so far this season due to 51% shooting, 2.2 threes, 5.6 assists, and 1.9 steals. The Bucks badly need scoring from others besides Gianni, and Rollins has been that guy as well as a player who can create for others. How long this run lasts is anyone's guess, but enjoy the production while you can.

I love Reed Sheppard's game, and I hope his recent stretch of solid production leads to more minutes in Houston. I recently advocated cutting him, but I will be happy to have been wrong there if he can get things going this year.

And lastly, Derik Queen has shown a solid all-around NBA-ready game in his limited minutes so far this season. It's clear that the Pelicans want to bring him along slowly (unlike Fears) and that he's fighting an uphill battle for minutes. But unless they're incredibly stupid (remember this is New Orleans we are talking about), you'd have to think that developing Queen and playing him more minutes is something we see eventually.

And here are the top usage rates from this subset of players with those posting a 19% usage rate or higher.

Jeremiah Fears leads the way with a 25% usage rate, the highest among rookies. His game is better for points leagues than 9-CAT. He's shooting just 43% from the floor and is more of a scorer than a true point guard. He's doing enough to be on rosters in standard leagues for now, but the return of Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole to the lineup at some point may change that.

Don't look now, but Brandon Williams may be the answer for Dallas at point guard until Kyrie Irving returns.

Brandon Williams in his last three games:

- 14.7 PPG
- 4.0 APG
- 3.0 RPG
- 2.3 SPG

B-Will has been HOOPING ‼️ pic.twitter.com/G2szwXRpZ1

— MFFL NATION (@NationMffl) November 11, 2025

Jason Kidd doesn't seem like he has the patience needed for D'Angelo Russell, and Williams offers has an extra gear (and better defense) than Russell. He's still widely available on the waiver wire. Go pick him up right now.

Everyone was excited about Cooper Flagg as the "can't miss" prospect from this year's draft. But it's former teammate, Kon Knueppel, who has had one of the biggest impacts of any rookie to start the year.

Kon Knueppel HAS to be the NBA Rookie of the year if he keeps this up

The NBA's rookie leader in:

Scoring (16.4 PPG)
3pt FGM (30 3's)
DFG% (38.5%)

On top of that his presence is changing the culture of an entire NBA organization already - stud

pic.twitter.com/04dMxWYkhT

— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) November 10, 2025

Knueppel has been every bit as good as advertised and has stepped up in a big way for Charlotte since Brandon Miller got hurt, and with LaMelo Ball missing a bunch of games already. Wait, you mean LaMelo Ball is already missing games regularly this season?

Another rookie with a high usage rate so far has been Washington's Tre Johnson at nearly 20%. It hasn't translated to fantasy relevance just yet, but he's a guy to watch in the second half if Washington goes full youth movement and stops telling CJ McCollum that he's allowed to shoot the ball 25 times a game. And yes, I am salty about that, as I had McCollum in my Cut List piece last week, as he was averaging 14-3-3 through the first two weeks, and he proceeded to score 25, 25, and 42 points in his next three games.

If you're still reading this, thanks for hanging in there with me for one of the longest rants on the NBA I have written in a while. I hope to keep delivering as much fantasy basketball content as I can this season, and I always appreciate any feedback or insight from readers. I hope something I had to say in here helps you in your quest for fantasy hoops dominance this season. Good luck!

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