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Thursday Night Football heads to East Rutherford, NJ, this week for an NFC East clash between the 4-1 Philadelphia Eagles and 1-4 New York Giants. The Eagles’ loss to the Broncos in Week 5 marked their first regular-season defeat since Week 16 of the 2024 season against Washington. The Giants are fresh off a loss where they turned the ball over five times to the then-winless Saints.
The Eagles are 7-2 against the Giants since 2021, the first year with Jalen Hurts as a full-time starter. One of those wins came in Week 18 last season, when he and other Eagles starters did not play. The Giants will be looking to stack together at least two home wins for the first time since Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season.
Who ya got: Eagles or Giants?
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PHIvsNYG– Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/q7zR5lGoKK— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2025
Can the Eagles bounce back after a home loss, or will the Giants find a way to pull off the upset? Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (-390 ML) at New York Giants (+310 ML)
Over/Under (40.5)
Zooming in on matchups during the Hurts era, his two losses to the Giants stand out as particularly ugly in the context of his career. The defeats came more than two years apart, first in Week 12 of the 2021 season and then in Week 18 of 2023. By adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), which measures a quarterback’s passing efficiency by weighting touchdowns and interceptions along with yards per attempt, these are the two worst games of his career and the only ones with an AY/A below 1.
As everyone is likely aware, the Philadelphia passing attack hasn't had the rosiest start to the season, with star wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith already voicing their frustrations publicly. Smith was able to get going in their Week 4 loss to the Broncos, securing eight of 10 targets for 114 yards.
Brown has yet to really take off outside of one big performance in Week 3 against the Rams, catching six of 10 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Strangely, star RB Saquon Barkley touched the ball only four times in the entire second half. So there are plenty of things for head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo to figure out.
The Giants’ defensive line has been pressuring opposing quarterbacks at the 17th-highest rate. Interestingly, the Giants’ defense tends to be more of a pass-funnel one, with the 16th-highest pass rate over expected (PrROE) allowed.
When pressured, Jalen Hurts ranks 17th in… pic.twitter.com/JMuoJQoK62
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 9, 2025
The Giants will be shorthanded on offense on Thursday night, with star Malik Nabers (knee) out for the season and Darius Slayton (hamstring) ruled out. But they will get Tyrone Tracy Jr. back to pair with rookie Cam Skattebo.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Digging into the specifics of the matchup, there are multiple areas that the Philadelphia offense could exploit the Giants. One is in the run game, and the other is taking advantage of how often the Giants play man coverage. It could project as a get-right game for the Eagles' run game, as it has been stagnant in the early going. By simple yards per carry, they rank fourth lowest (3.5), 19th in explosive run rate (10.6%), and fifth highest stuff rate (24.6%).
The Giants are near the bottom of the league in most of these categories with a lighter defensive front. Their 5.3 yards per carry allowed is the fourth highest, and 22 explosive runs allowed is tied for the third most given up.
Giants & Eagles weekly run concepts charted by @FTNFantasy pic.twitter.com/XAXUwSOS6O
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) October 8, 2025
In terms of coverage tendencies, the Giants rank fourth in the NFL in man coverage rate (53.8%). They give up the third-most yards per game when playing man coverage (133.8), but they have been sticky with the third-most pass breakups (17). But facing the stud wideouts on the outside that the Eagles possess will be a much bigger test.
Week 5 was a strange game plan overall for the Eagles. Hurts dropped back 45 times against the Broncos, which is the second most in a game since the start of last season. The Eagles’ +18.9% pass rate over expected (PROE) was the second-highest in any start of Hurts’ career. The highest came during his first season as a starter in 2021, Week 3 in Dallas, when they passed +21.4% over expectation.
The Eagles got destroyed in that game, 41-21, and were losing by three scores early in the second half, which made their expected pass rate very high to begin with. But they had only three designed RB carries the entire game.
Overall, the Eagles have rarely operated that pass-heavy with Hurts as the starter. Including both games discussed, there have only been six games since 2021 where the Eagles have had a PROE above +10%.
On the other side of the ball, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio had some praise for the Giants' rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Dart relies heavily on his legs currently, often looking for his first read and then scrambling if it isn't there. His combined 21% scramble + sack rate through two games is the third highest in the NFL, behind J.J. McCarthy and Tyrod Taylor.
Vic Fangio on Jaxson Dart: "I like him. Another mobile quarterback. I think he's got that air about him to be a quarterback. I think he's confident in his abilities and in their offense. Got the gun run game to contend with. They'll run quarterback draws, quarterback designed…
— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) October 7, 2025
However, the Giants have leaned into the run more with Dart as the starter. The Eagles haven't been good at defending the run, ranking 30th in rushing success rate, and are tied for fifth for the most first-down rushing plays given up (41).
Hurts and the Eagles have failed to cover the spread seven straight times as favorites of seven or more. Especially at the Meadowlands, where he has historically struggled, we will take the points. It's a low total, but possessions will likely be limited with a rookie QB who will likely struggle again.
The Picks: New York Giants +7.5, (-115), Under 40.5 (-115)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cam Skattebo 70+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+100)
Skattebo has operated as the Giants' clear lead back over the past few games with Tracy (shoulder) sidelined. Tracy appears set to return on Thursday, but Skattebo should still maintain control of the majority of the workload. Since Week 3, when Tracy was first injured, Skattebo has been averaging over 22 opportunities (rushes + targets) per game.
That number should tick down a bit with him back; his receiving floor has been very high, even with the transition to a rookie QB who will scramble and take sacks. The Eagles' run defense is gettable, and Skattebo has been efficient on his touches. The rookie out of Arizona State has been over this line in every game since Week 3, and getting it at even odds feels solid.
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 17.5 Yards (-112)
We mentioned earlier the high number of explosive runs that the Giants have conceded this season, and that sets up Barkley for a nice revenge spot. His longest run of the season is only 17 yards, coming last week against the Broncos. Last season, Barkley had the fifth-highest percentage of carries that resulted in 20 or more yards (4.9%), per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Things haven't quite opened up in the run game yet, but all it takes is for him to rip off one long carry.
Dexter Lawrence II To Record A Sack (+182)
Dexter Lawrence II has yet to record a sack this season. There have been two other occurrences during his seven-year career where it took at least six games into the season to record even half a sack. The first time was in 2021, when it took him until Week 6 to record half a sack and then the following week for a full sack. Then, in 2023, he recorded his first two sacks of the season in Week 7.
Landon Dickerson will miss time with injury. Cam Jurgens has been struggling and still feels back surgery. Brett Toth was really not good vs Broncos.
Short week now, but if issues continue, may be time to rest Jurgens too and give Willie Lampkin and Drew Kendall a chance#Eagles
— Thomas R. Petersen (@thomasrp93) October 8, 2025
So we are right around the time of the year when we may expect it to happen, and looking for a weak link on the Philadelphia offensive line, we can notice that left guard Landon Dickerson (ankle) will be out for this game. His backup, Brett Toth, played in Week 5 after Dickerson left with an injury. Dickerson came into the season dealing with an injury, and it's been a struggle for him. Toth has been with the Eagles since 2023, but didn't appear in any games last season. We'll ride with Sexy Dexy to take advantage of a backup left guard and get his first sack on the board in 2025.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+185)
Brown has been one of the elite wide receivers when faced with man coverage since he came into the league. The Giants play it at one of the highest rates, and Brown is targeted against man coverage at one of the highest rates. He's been vocal, but not fed up with his lack of consistent production. Everyone is aware of it, and it feels like one of those national television games where Brown asserts his dominance with a monster performance. He's tied for second on the team with three red zone targets, but he could also house one from anywhere on the field.
More Picks and Analysis
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