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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 4 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 4 of the 2025 fantasy football season. We have a decent sample of three weeks in the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. The narratives have somewhat shifted over the past few weeks. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
Don’t panic if a receiver struggled in Weeks 1 to 3, but the usage matters for pass catchers. If a player is talented or near-elite, they didn’t have a massive downgrade. However, we also need to validate that if a player showed a high target-earning skill like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we need to pay attention. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 4 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Cleveland Browns.
The visual below shows offenses from the Dallas Cowboys to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The visual below shows offenses from the Los Angeles Rams to the New York Jets.
The visual below shows offenses from the Philadelphia Eagles through the Washington Commanders, finishing the alphabetical order.
Best Projected Week 4 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 4 WR/CB Matchups
Week 4 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Jakobi Meyers vs. Nick McCloud
The Raiders' primary slot receiver projects to face the Bears' primary slot cornerback. Among slot cornerbacks with 20 or more snaps, Nick McCloud allows the fifth-most yards per slot coverage snap. Meyers leads the Raiders in first-read target share (27.9 percent) and yards per route run (1.98), with Tre Tucker close behind.
The Bears' pass coverage has been awful. That's evident in the Bears' defense, allowing the most fantasy points per dropback against zone and the second-highest versus man coverage. Meyers earns an identical 21 percent target rate against man and zone coverage, with better production versus zone.
The Bears tend to use Cover 2, deploying it at the fourth-highest percentage in 2025. Meyers crushes Cover 2. He garners a 32 percent target rate and 3.73 yards per route run against Cover 2.
Tucker has been better against man coverage, with a team-high 2.28 yards per route run among their primary pass catchers. However, Tucker hasn't fared as well against Cover 2, given the 11 percent target rate and 0.89 yards per route run. Sure, there's a chance Tucker puts together another spike week against the Bears and their decimated secondary, but Meyers provides the floor and ceiling in this WR/CB matchup.
Emeka Egbuka vs. Adoree' Jackson/Jakorian Bennett
Unfortunately, Mike Evans will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury. However, there have been reports that Chris Godwin hopes to return from his ankle injury. Regardless, Egbuka has been one of the most productive and efficient receivers through three games.
Egbuka has been producing over four fantasy points above expected per game, the eighth-highest in Weeks 1 to 3. He trails Evans in first-read target share (24.6 percent) while leading the team in yards per route run. Most notably, Egbuka has been deployed in the slot and out wide at a relatively even rate.
Egbuka projects to face veteran Adoree' Jackson, who left with a groin injury in Week 3. Jakorian Bennett filled in, but they've both been two of the worst cornerbacks for the Eagles. Jackson has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per route run, with Bennett being even worse (1.10) in 2025.
In the worst-case scenario where Godwin misses, the Eagles' defense might shift Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. That's especially notable because the Buccaneers have moved Egbuka to either side of the field besides the slot, and the Eagles have shown they'll move Mitchell from the right or left side of the field. In those situations, Egbuka will face better coverage cornerbacks, with a chance of double coverage at times.
The Eagles' pass defense uses single-high looks at the 19th-highest rate, yet they allow the second-most fantasy points per dropback. Unsurprisingly, Egbuka garners a whopping 38 percent target rate and 4.23 yards per route run against single-high looks. Look for Baker Mayfield to take advantage of single-high looks if the Eagles use that type of coverage.
Furthermore, the Eagles utilize Cover 3 (No. 11) and Cover 6 (No. 5). That might be one way to limit Egbuka since he garners a low 11 percent target rate and 1.18 yards per route run against Cover 3 and 6. If that's the case, Egbuka will need to find the soft spots in zone coverage and create yards after the catch.
Rashid Shaheed vs. Christian Benford
Chris Olave vs. Tre'Davious White
The Saints haven't been taking shots at Shaheed, with an average target depth of 9.3 yards. However, it could be related to having a new offensive coordinator and being without Derek Carr. Under the hood, Shaheed's advanced metrics don't look great, with an 18 percent target per route, 17.2 percent first-read target share, and 1.17 yards per route run.
Christian Benford has been struggling in coverage, allowing the third-most fantasy points per route run after giving up the second-fewest in 2024. We saw Tyreek Hill have a solid game against Benford last Thursday, with more left on the table. Meanwhile, Tre'Davious White has been mediocre, allowing 0.27 fantasy points per route (No. 66), yet the 20th-lowest yards per route run.
The Bills use zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate while giving up the 11th-most fantasy points per dropback. Although the Bills' defense deploys man coverage 19.3 percent of the time (No. 22), they've been bleeding fantasy points per dropback (No. 4). This game might project better for Olave because he earns a high rate of targets against man and zone coverage, but both he and Shaheed can win against man coverage.
The Bills' pass defense uses Cover 2 at the sixth-highest percentage. Olave leads the team with a 35 percent target rate, and Juwan Johnson is close behind (31 percent) against Cover 2. Shaheed trails them with a 19 percent target rate. However, Olave (1.18) struggles to produce compared to Johnson (1.54) and Shaheed (1.56) in yards per route against Cover 2.
The tricky part with this game involves the Bills being 16.5-point favorites. That might seem somewhat disrespectful, but the Seahawks blew out the Saints in Week 3. There could be a scenario where the Saints' starting players sit if the game is out of hand in the fourth quarter. Or Olave and Shaheed could find their way to piling up garbage time targets.
Week 4 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Parker Washington vs. Deommodore Lenoir
The Jaguars' passing offense has arguably been disappointing through the first three weeks, especially with the coaching changes and the addition of Liam Coen. They rank 23rd in EPA per dropback and 25th in passing success rate, with the highest drop rate (11.4 percent). Washington trails the top receivers in route percentage (35.8 percent), with Travis Hunter (62.5 percent) and Brian Thomas Jr. (83.3 percent) ahead.
After a 12 percent target share in Week 2, Washington saw a whopping 11 targets (29 percent), explaining why he leads the team with a 35 percent target per route rate. He has been the most efficient receiver, averaging over one yard per route more than Hunter and Thomas through three weeks.
There were talks about the 49ers' defense being brutal in 2025, but they've been more middle-of-the-pack. The 49ers' pass defense deploys zone coverage at the 13th-highest rate, yet allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback. They have been susceptible to giving up fantasy points, allowing the fifth-most, when using man coverage (No. 20).
Washington boasts a ridiculously high 5.70 yards per route run versus man coverage, though he earns targets at a high rate against both. Thomas and Brenton Strange have been two other quality options for the Jaguars, especially against man coverage, so that might be the path to attack the 49ers, if they're using more man coverage.
Meanwhile, the 49ers' pass defense utilizes the 11th-highest percentage of single-high looks and allows the 11th-fewest fantasy points per dropback when using that type of coverage. It's a small sample of 43 routes, but Washington rocks a 35 percent target rate and a team-high 2.56 yards per route run against single-high coverage. Thomas (24 percent) and Hunter (21 percent) trail Washington in target rate, with the same trend in yards per route for Thomas (1.15) and Hunter (1.01) versus single-high looks.
Deommodore Lenoir has been the 49ers' best cornerback, allowing the 29th-lowest fantasy points per route run and a team-low 66.3 passing rate. As a team, the 49ers' secondary has been graded as the sixth-best, per PFF, making them a challenging matchup. We expect the 49ers' pass defense to deploy more zone coverage as usual to avoid being beaten in man or single-high looks.
Washington could be a one-off spike week in targets, or the Jaguars might incorporate more of him into the passing game with Thomas and Hunter underperforming early in 2025. Be cautious about rolling out Washington unless it's a deep league as a WR4 in PPR formats.
DK Metcalf vs. Isaiah Rodgers
Rodgers has been one of the best cornerbacks for the Vikings, allowing the seventh-lowest fantasy points per route run. He also allows the sixth-lowest passer rating against among all cornerbacks with 10 or more coverage snaps. The Steelers rank middle of the pack, with the 16th-highest neutral game script pass rate (57 percent), but they average the second-fewest plays per game (50) in neutral scripts, ahead of the Dolphins.
That's concerning because Metcalf will need to rely on his efficiency, especially with a middling 20 percent target rate and 23.8 percent first-read target share. Metcalf trails Jonnu Smith in target rate (24 percent), with a similar yards per route run to Calvin Austin III.
The Vikings love deploying two-high looks, using it at the highest rate (70.1 percent). Sometimes, the Vikings' pass defense can be beaten when using two high, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per dropback in 2025. Specifically, the Vikings tend to use Cover 2 at the fifth-highest percentage.
Metcalf struggles against two-high looks, evidenced by a 1.16 yards per route and a 16 percent target rate. Cover 2 tends to favor Smith (1.59) and Austin (1.63) in yards per route run. When we factor in Brian Flores on the Vikings' defense, they bring the second-highest pressure rate (48 percent) while blitzing at the fifth-highest rate. Their pressure rate puts them behind the Commanders (49.6 percent).
The visual below shows the quarterbacks with the lowest CPOE when pressured.
The Steelers' offensive line has the 16th-best pressure rate allowed. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers ranks 34th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks with 10 or more dropbacks in Completion Rate Over Expected (CPOE) when pressured. Furthermore, Rodgers ranks last in catchable target rate when pressured, suggesting it will be a struggle for the Steelers' offense in Week 4, especially for Metcalf.
George Pickens vs. Carrington Valentine
Stock up for Pickens without CeeDee Lamb, right? Theoretically, but there will likely be a downtick in efficiency for the Cowboys' passing offense without an elite target earner like Lamb. Jake Ferguson leads the team with a 32 percent target rate, with Lamb (27 percent) and Pickens (17 percent) trailing among their pass catchers with a 60 percent route rate or higher.
Valentine allows the ninth-lowest fantasy points per route. He remains one of the top graded cornerbacks in the Packers' secondary, and they're fifth-best as a team in defensive coverage grades. The Packers' defense deploys zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate while running Cover 3 at the third-highest percentage. Pickens has been known to perform better against man coverage, which we've seen with him averaging fewer yards per route against zone (1.12).
It might be more of a Ferguson game without Lamb for the Cowboys' top pass catchers in Week 4 against the Packers' zone-heavy coverage. That's further evident by Lamb (3.36) and Ferguson (1.94) leading the team in yards per route run against Cover 3, compared to Pickens at 1.82, with a lowly 14 percent target rate. Meanwhile, Lamb garners a 32 percent target rate, and Ferguson at 29 percent, versus Cover 3.
The Packers' defense pressures the quarterback at the third-highest rate, with the Cowboys' offensive line ranking 18th in pressure allowed. Can Dak Prescott maintain the eighth-highest CPOE and third-highest catchable target rate when pressured without Lamb? Temper expectations for Pickens, though we can't deny the upside to break one massive play.
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