MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/3/2025)

September 3, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/3/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

I have to start things off by tipping my cap to my colleague, Koby Hanson, who nailed three of four HR calls in Sunday's article. That's a lot harder to do than most people think, and as someone who has been trying to do it all season, I can tell you firsthand it's incredibly difficult. My best this year is 3-for-5, and I am constantly trying to beat it. Perhaps today is the day!

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, September 3, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/3/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, September 3:

• Addison Barger, Toronto Blue Jays
• Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners
• Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox
• Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees
• Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants

Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's kick things off in Cincinnati, where hitters always have an advantage thanks to the friendly dimensions of Great American Ball Park.

The Reds are rolling out right-hander Zack Littell, who was acquired from Tampa before the deadline. Littell is not a bad pitcher, but he always pops when we sort by HR/9 as he's struggled with home runs all season. His 1.68 HR/9 is the third-worst mark on the board today, and it's something I am willing to exploit when he's at home against a good offense.

Littell's power numbers are worse against righties, but I love the way that Barger matches up against his pitch mix. As the season gets further along, I find myself trying to dig deeper to find edges, and it's been part of the reason I think I have been on a winning streak lately.

Barger has a solid 15.7% barrel% against RHP, and his numbers against Littell's split-finger are what grabbed my attention. Littell is very splitter-heavy to lefties, throwing it 34% of the time, while Barger has a .667 ISO and 1.067 SLG against the pitch with three home runs. He's handled the slider and sinker quite well, too, which are the next two most common offerings from Littell to lefties.

Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you read my articles, you know I love a good longshot bet, and I try to sprinkle those in with some of the more popular hitters with worse odds.

I was expecting to see Canzone closer to +700 territory, but the books must be well-aware of the elite hitting conditions at Steinbrenner Field today. Tampa's temporary home has been a boon to hitters all season, and we have some winds around eight to 10 mph projected to be blowing out to right-center field.

That's going to really aid any lefties who can get under the baseball tonight, and Canzone's matchup with Tampa righty Adrian Houser is the one that I am targeting.

Houser has had a very solid bounce-back season and was good enough in Chicago to get himself traded to the Rays. However, he doesn't miss many bats and allows his fair share of hard contact (46.7% to lefties).

Houser relies on a sinker to generate groundballs, but that's always a dangerous pitch to throw to lefties as it's a pitch that moves back over the plate and can get hit a long way if hitters have an ideal launch angle.

Canzone is a threat to get pinch-hit for in the later innings, so I am really banking on him getting under one of those Houser sinkers in one of his first few at-bats. It's a long shot bet, but the matchup is really good, and Canzone is an underrated power bat who simply doesn't play often enough to rack up big stats.

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Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alright, now it's time to chase some hot hitters in great spots. The Chicago rookie Montgomery has proven to be a solid power hitter during his first few months as a pro.

Since Colson Montgomery's first career homer on July 22, only Kyle Schwarber has hit more than the @whitesox rookie 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GJ56Q0FHux

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 2, 2025

Monty has hit 12 home runs off righties this season and is sporting an impressive 17.9% barrel rate. He has the ultimate boom/bust matchup today against Zebby Matthews, who has 29% K% vs. RHH but has also allowed a terrible .508 SLG% and 15.3% Barrel%.

The BvP here is the icing on the cake. Montgomery has barreled up Matthews twice in three at-bats with a home run. Let's see if he can continue to own this matchup with the hard-throwing Minnesota pitcher.

Jazz Chisholm OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Is anyone hotter than Jazz Chisholm right now? The Yankees slugger hit two more home runs last night to give him six long balls in his last nine games.

It's fair AND it's gone

Jazz Chisholm Jr. crushes his 2nd HR of the night 💪 pic.twitter.com/88vcmTfucy

— MLB (@MLB) September 3, 2025

He's been locked in during the second half and is crushing right-handed pitching. Today, he gets a matchup with Houston righty Jason Alexander. While Alexander is having a decent year for the Astros, his splits against lefties grabbed my attention.

Alexander has allowed a .517 SLG%, 12.6% Barrel%, and an obscene 60% HardHit% to southpaws this season. When we break down his pitch mix a bit further, we can see that he leads with sinker and changeup to lefties. Jazz just happens to have a .750 SLG% against sinkers from righties this season with five homers. I think Jazz can continue to rake tonight in this spot, and we are getting good odds here.

Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I typically don't force plays in Coors Field because the books lower the odds so much, and the weather isn't even all that great tonight, as the wind is blowing in from center field. However, I think I have to make an exception for Devers, who has been locked in lately.

BENCHES CLEAR after Rafael Devers hits a homer 😳🚨

(via @NBCSGiants)
pic.twitter.com/ZsErOhDjmB

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 3, 2025

Dever has homered in three straight games and now has five over his last six contests. He crushes right-handed pitching with a 17% barrel% on the season and is facing the corpse of German Marquez tonight. Sorry, Marquez, for the slander, but it's been years since the Colorado pitcher was even respectable. This season, he has allowed a .539 SLG% and 48.7% HardHit% to lefties.

We can get the red-hot Devers in an elite matchup for +250 on FanDuel. That still feels like a bargain even if it's far worse odds than the rest of our card today.

Good luck, friends, let's cash some of these bets and build our bankroll for the opening night of the 2025 NFL football season tomorrow!

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