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Corbin looks at 2025 fantasy football strength of schedules and the toughest WR matchups for the early season. His potential early-season avoids include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, and more.
After examining the receiving data allowed by coverage, we projected a strength of schedule for receivers based on the first four weeks of games. This doesn’t mean we should sit all the receivers. However, we might want to downgrade or lower expectations given how the camp news and team situations shake out over the next few weeks.
NFL teams have discussed splitting the season into quarters, which probably should influence how we manage our fantasy rosters. That’s especially notable because we want to use more recent data in the following season once we have a sample of 3-4 games. Unlike baseball, we need to react and adjust to small samples because the market has become sharper and quicker to make moves.
We’ll look through the teams with the best and worst projected receiver strength of schedules in Weeks 1-4. Plus, we’ll examine a few receivers that might have tougher matchups to start the season based on the defensive coverage and underlying data. Reach out if you have any questions.
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Best Projected Receiver Strength of Schedules in Weeks 1-4
The Texans, Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, Giants, Packers, and Jaguars have the best projected receiver strength of schedule in the first four weeks. Interestingly, the Eagles face the Cowboys and Buccaneers, who brought a high percentage of pressure. The Cowboys ranked third and the Buccaneers ranked sixth in pressure rate in 2024. They also faced two tougher run defenses in the Chiefs (No. 7) and Buccaneers (No. 10).
Meanwhile, the Panthers and Broncos look set up for several juicy ones. The Broncos face three teams that ranked in the bottom ten in fantasy points per dropback against several coverages, including the Titans, Colts, and Bengals. We’re expecting the Panthers’ offense to take a step forward with the addition of Tetairoa McMillan. However, they might be more neutral since they project to face the Jaguars with Travis Hunter, the Falcons with their potential to be more man-heavy, and the Patriots.
The Falcons ran a high percentage of zone coverage in 2024. However, they have Jeff Ulbrich as their defensive coordinator, who ran man coverage at the seventh-highest rate. The Falcons' corners might be better served using more man, as it seems to fit better with their strengths.
Worst Projected Receiver Strength of Schedules in Weeks 1-4
On the flip side, let’s look at the worst projected receiver strength of schedules in Weeks 1-4. That list includes the Bills, Cowboys, Steelers, Seahawks, Browns, Jets, Patriots, and Colts. Besides the Cowboys, the rest of the teams have some murky receiver rooms besides their top projected one. If the team has a lead receiver who primarily runs slot routes, like Khalil Shakir, we want to examine the situation further.
With DK Metcalf being the Steelers’ top receiver, we can quickly scan to see that there’s at least one strong cornerback on the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots that might slow him down. Jaxon Smith-Njigba played often in the slot in 2024, but we’re projecting him to run more routes outside with the addition of Cooper Kupp. We discussed why Smith-Njigba might be a must-target slot receiver in 2025.
Projected Tougher Wide Receiver Matchups in Weeks 1-4
DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Like George Pickens, Metcalf's receiving advanced metrics were similar and better against man coverage. The Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots ranked inside the top 10 in man coverage percentage in 2024. Ulbrich left the Jets. There might be a defensive shift with the Jets in 2025. The Seahawks have the same defensive coordinator under Mike Macdonald, and the Patriots hired the former Lions’ defensive line coach, Terrell Williams.
Metcalf averaged 1.98 yards per route with an 18 percent target rate and 15.1 average target depth. The Vikings use two-high safety looks to limit explosive plays, which will be relevant since Metcalf had the sixth-highest explosive catch rate, meaning 30.3 percent of his receptions went for 15 or more yards in 2024. Metcalf might be priced slightly high in drafts based on his situation with the Steelers, since they probably prefer to be more run-heavy.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns
Jeudy faces the Bengals in Week 1, and their defense might be worse if Trey Hendrickson joins another team. He’ll face the Ravens (No. 10) and Lions (No. 1), who ranked inside the top 10 in man coverage in 2024. With Aaron Glenn moving to the Jets, maybe the Lions will use man coverage at a lower rate.
Jeudy was better against zone coverage in yards per route run, with similar target rates in 2024. However, let’s break down the season when Jameis Winston took over in Week 8. Jeudy’s numbers exploded from Weeks 8-18, with a 25 percent target per route percentage, 2.36 yards per route run, and a 30.8 percent first-read target share. That usage led to Jeudy averaging an elite 17.4 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-18.
#Browns Jerry Jeudy’s numbers exploded from Weeks 8-18, with Jameis Winston at QB.
Weeks 8-18:
🎯25% target per route
✅2.36 yards per route run
1⃣30.8% first-read target share
🔥Elite 17.4 expected fantasy points per game pic.twitter.com/BiX8rCDGB3— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 20, 2025
For context, Jeudy garnered a 15 percent target rate, 1.02 yards per route run, 18.5 percent first-read target share, and 11.4 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-7. Winston plays for the Giants, and there have been reports of Joe Flacco starting for the Browns in Week 1. Kenny Pickett shouldn’t get in the way of the rookies Sheduer Sanders or Dillon Gabriel, but it could be another season of murky quarterback play for the Browns.
During the increased usage for Jeudy, he continued to show similar target rates, with slightly better production in yards per route run against zone coverage. If Jeudy’s Average Separation Scores tend to be more mediocre than in the high-end range against man coverage, he might struggle heading into the first four games of the season.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
No fantasy managers will likely consider sitting Williams or St. Brown in Weeks 1-4. However, they might be slight downgrades in the first several weeks, which should be different than their regression compared to their team-level efficiency in 2024. The Lions face two teams that ranked within the top 10 in man coverage, including the Ravens and Browns.
Williams performed better against man coverage while generating above-average separation scores, per Fantasy Points Data. However, St. Brown produced better yards per route run against zone coverage in 2024, though his Average Separation Score versus man suggested better production.
That’s notable because they face the extremes, with the Packers (No. 2) and Bears (No. 3) being among the top three teams deploying zone coverage in 2024. However, the Bears hired Dennis Allen as their defensive coordinator, who previously coached for the Saints after utilizing man coverage at the 13th-highest rate in 2024.
If Williams and St. Brown start slow, be patient with them because we know they’re talented receivers in one of the better offenses heading into 2025.
Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots
The hype train for Drake Maye in fantasy continues to pick up steam because of his rushing upside. Diggs was sneaky good in 2024 before suffering a season-ending injury. That led to Diggs being a target among the receivers priced as a WR3. Although the projected strength of schedule for the Patriots’ receivers doesn’t look friendly, the Steelers might be the only scary defense.
The Panthers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback. However, the Dolphins allowed the third-fewest and the Raiders allowed the 13th-most, showing a mixed bag. The Panthers' defense also struggled against the run game, allowing the third-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (No. 5) and Raiders (No. 13) were underrated defenses against the run game.
The Dolphins made tons of moves in their secondary, with the lone cornerback being Storm Duck, which isn’t a fake name. Most notably, the Dolphins acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick and Mike Hilton in their secondary, but they might be more beatable than the 2024 numbers suggest.
The Patriots play the Dolphins and Panthers, who ranked inside the top 12 in zone coverage usage. Diggs was slightly better against zone coverages, with a 2.09 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Diggs garnered a similar target rate against man and zone coverages. Diggs still flashed above-average separation scores, and he might have one more season of high-end production because of his ability to earn targets and separate.
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