RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 20 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 20 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
We've got three exciting young arms to look at this week! First, we'll break down Michael McGreevy's six shutout innings against the Cubs on Friday. Then, we'll deep dive into Joey Cantillo's strong start against Chicago on Saturday. We'll finish it off with a look at Jack Perkins dealing for the Athletics.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of August 11.
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Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals – 7% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 39 IP, 5.08 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 10.4% K-BB%
08/08 vs. CHC: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
McGreevy turned in one of his best starts all season last Friday, blanking the Cubs over six innings en route to his second straight victory. It was a nice bounce-back for McGreevy, who allowed 11 earned runs in his previous two starts combined. A control specialist, the right-hander has had an up-and-down run in the Cardinals' rotation this season. Can McGreevy settle in and give us any fantasy value for these last two-ish months?
Originally a first-round pick by the Cardinals in 2021, McGreevy wasn’t a big prospect on a national level, but he was viewed as a future starter in the Cardinals' system. He was ranked as the ninth-best prospect in the Cardinals’ system by Fangraphs in their July midseason update. McGreevy has a deep arsenal, with seven different pitches at his disposal. He throws a four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup, and slider. Other than the slider, he throws each pitch at least 9% of the time.
McGreevy may have a lot of pitches to choose from, but he does favor a few. His most-used pitch is the four-seam fastball, which he throws 27% of the time. A 93 mph offering, McGreevy certainly isn’t lighting up any radar guns with his heater. He also has average spin and average break with the pitch, along with below-average drop. On paper, this is not a very impressive fastball, but McGreevy’s gotten decent results with the pitch so far.
Batters are hitting .267 off the pitch with a .356 SLG and .313 wOBA. Not great, but not horrible either. Unfortunately, the expected stats suggest that regression could be coming for McGreevy. He has a .316 xBA, .481 xSLG, and .377 xwOBA with his four-seamer this season. Batters are clobbering this pitch with a 95.7 mph average exit velocity. That’s more than two mph harder than McGreevy throws his fastball. McGreevy has also given up a 33.3% line drive rate and a 17-degree average launch angle with his four-seam fastball this season. It’s a good thing McGreevy limits walks, because he’s liable to surrender a lot of hits with this pitch.
McGreevy’s next most-used pitch is his sweeper, which he throws 22.4% of the time. An 83.4 mph offering, McGreevy’s sweeper has above-average spin and plus vertical drop. He’s gotten decent results with the pitch so far, with opponents hitting .229 off McGreevy’s sweeper, along with a .343 SLG and a .243 wOBA.
The expected stats are a little more suspect for McGreevy, with a .275 xBA, .423 xSLG, and .298 xwOBA against his sweeper this season. The sweeper has been one of McGreevy’s best strikeout pitches, though that’s not saying much as McGreevy has just a 26.2% whiff rate with the pitch this season. McGreevy has had underwhelming strikeout rates throughout his professional career, and this sweeper isn’t going to change that, despite sweepers traditionally serving as big swing-and-miss pitches.
He didn’t use the sweeper as much in this start, throwing it just 12.6% of the time. Perhaps that’s because the Cubs deployed five left-handed bats against McGreevy, causing him to lean more on his curveball and changeup in this outing. We’ll start with the changeup, which McGreevy threw 20.7% of the time in this one, a season high by over 8%.
An 88.2 mph offering, McGreevy doesn’t have a lot of separation between his fastball and changeup in terms of velocity. His fastball averages 93 mph, leaving just five mph between the heater and the change. Most pitchers throw their changeups about 8-12 mph slower than their fastballs, and that difference in velocity can help increase deception with the pitch and making it difficult for hitters to pick up on.
Hitters have had no problem picking up on McGreevy’s changeup, as opponents are hitting .278 off the pitch with a .444 SLG and a .310 wOBA. McGreevy did earn four of his six whiffs with the pitch in this start and has a 30% whiff rate with the changeup, his highest of any pitch. The changeup probably could be McGreevy’s best strikeout pitch, but it has average movement and spin, and without much velocity separation, I don’t trust this pitch to earn strikeouts on a consistent basis.
McGreevy also threw his curveball a little more often in this start, using it 16% of the time. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, as this pitch has been positively pulverized by opponents so far. Batters are hitting .417 off the pitch with a .500 SLG and a .399 wOBA, along with a .423 xBA, .691 xSLG, and .480 xwOBA. All that despite an 86.5 mph average exit velocity. McGreevy’s problem is just too much contact. He has a 100% zone contact rate with his curveball this season. One-hundred-freaking-percent!
His curveball has a pitiful 16.7% whiff rate and a 6-degree average launch angle against. McGreevy primarily uses the curveball against lefties, but he also has a cutter and changeup that he can use, and he should probably throw those instead. The curveball seems like it could be a liability for McGreevy, and his arsenal is deep enough that he doesn’t need to rely on it too often.
When it comes to dominance, McGreevy will leave something to be desired. He just won’t rack up the strikeouts like we want in fantasy baseball. But he does do a few things well enough that could give him some value. He does an excellent job at limiting walks, sporting a 1.40 BB/9 on the year and a 1.80 BB/9 at Triple-A this season. He has routinely kept his walk rates below 6% and this looks like a repeatable skill for McGreevy, one that could help him in the WHIP department.
He’s also done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, having allowed just three home runs in eight appearances so far. This is another skill that McGreevy has shown throughout the minors, and I think can translate to the major leagues. McGreevy also has an average exit velocity under 90 mph against all of his pitches besides the four-seam fastball, which is unfortunately getting crushed for a 95.7 mph average exit velocity. Limiting walks, home runs, and hard contact isn’t a sexy profile, but it can work. McGreevy is probably a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher, as he profiles as a groundball-inducing, innings-eater type.
Verdict:
Stuff-wise, McGreevy is a little underwhelming. His best pitch is probably the sweeper, but it pales in comparison to some of the nasty sweepers we see on major league mounds. It doesn't generate whiffs, and the expected stats are a little suspect. His four-seam fastball is getting absolutely hammered and could be a liability for McGreevy on the mound. His arsenal is deep enough that McGreevy may be able to get away from his four-seamer and rely on his sinker and cutter, especially against lefty-heavy lineups.
McGreevy’s stuff may not blow anyone away, but he does have some valuable skills. He rarely issues a walk, and it’s tough to take him deep. He also limits hard contact for the most part and has been an above-average groundball pitcher through the minors. Still, he’s had a few blowups already, making it tough to trust him in any given start. His next start is scheduled for home against the Rockies, and it doesn’t get much better than that. You can probably get away with streaming him there, but I don’t want to use him much beyond the occasional stream.
Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians – 13% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 55.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 17.2% K-BB%
08/09 @ CHW: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Cantillo had one of his best starts all season on Saturday, holding the White Sox to just one run over five and two-thirds innings while picking up his third victory of the season. Cantillo has spent the majority of the season in the bullpen or minors, but he moved to the rotation in early July and has gotten the chance to try his stuff as a starter. He’s flashed some big strikeout upside in the minors and as a reliever, but can Cantillo have any fantasy value down the stretch?
Originally a 16th-round pick out of high school in Hawaii by the Padres, Cantillo was one of the players Cleveland received in the Mike Clevinger trade. He wasn’t considered much of a prospect coming up, and he was ranked as Cleveland’s 44th overall prospect by Fangraphs earlier this season, with Cantillo seen as a future reliever. Cantillo works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider.
Cantillo’s most-used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, which he throws 40.5% of the time. A 91.4 mph offering, Cantillo’s velocity was down to 90.7 mph in this start. It was the second time in three appearances that Cantillo experienced depressed velocity, as he fired just 88.8 mph against the Royals back on July 27. This lowered velocity could be a concern if it persists, but Cantillo had been able to average at least 91 mph in all of his other starts this season. Velocity isn’t his game anyway, as Cantillo is in the 12th percentile of fastball velocity in the major leagues.
Opponents have handled Cantillo’s fastball well, hitting .277 against the pitch with a .521 SLG and a .398 wOBA. The expected stats mirror the actual stats almost perfectly, with Cantillo sporting a .286 xBA, .518 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA with his heater this season. Batters are pulverizing the ball for a 96 mph average exit velocity off Cantillo’s fastball. Not only does Cantillo’s fastball lack velocity, but it also has incredibly poor spin and painfully average movement. This is not a good pitch, and it will likely be a liability for Cantillo on the mound throughout his major league career.
The fastball certainly isn’t the reason Cantillo is in the majors, and it’s likely a big reason why Cantillo wasn’t considered much of a prospect despite putting up strong strikeout rates in the minor leagues. Cantillo’s best pitch would be his changeup, which he throws 32.5% of the time. His usage has dipped slightly as a starter, as he’s only thrown it 28.55% of the time when working as a starting pitcher.
A 77.9 mph offering, Cantillo’s changeup has put up some gaudy numbers this season. Batters are hitting just .208 off the pitch with a .351 SLG and a .287 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Cantillo has earned these results, with a .193 xBA, .270 xSLG, and a .253 xwOBA against. Those are strong numbers, but what really makes the pitch special is its strikeout rate. Cantillo has an unreal 51% whiff rate with his changeup this season. He notched six of his nine whiffs with the pitch in this start, good for a monster 55% whiff rate.
An ultra-low spin offering at just 1506 RPM, Cantillo’s changeup has big horizontal movement, giving it plenty of break and a unique shape. Have a look at his 2025 pitch movement profile (changeup in green).
Here’s an example of the pitch from an earlier start this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) August 11, 2025
Looks filthy there, and Cantillo should be able to sustain a plus strikeout rate because of this pitch. He’s maintained strong strikeout rates throughout his minor league career, and he still has a 26.9% strikeout rate as a starter this season. This is one area where Cantillo could be a plus, and plus strikeout pitchers can be tough to find on waivers at this point in the season.
It’s mostly been about the fastball and changeup for Cantillo, as he throws them a combined 73% of the time. But he has been throwing his curveball more since becoming a starter. He’s thrown the curveball 19% of the time all season, but 23.25% of the time since July 3, when he became a starter. He threw it a season-high 32.9% of the time against the White Sox on Saturday. A 76.6 mph offering, Cantillo’s curveball has an extreme vertical drop of 8.7 inches above league average. Let’s have a look at that movement profile again, this time focusing on the curveball (curveball in blue).
Its atypical shape makes it difficult for opposing hitters to elevate and square up, as evidenced by the 2-degree average launch angle and 56% groundball rate against Cantillo’s curveball this season. Overall, batters are hitting just .159 off the pitch with a .182 SLG and a .146 wOBA.
It’s not a strikeout pitch like his changeup because Cantillo has just a 25.7% whiff rate with the pitch this season. Still, this appears to be an effective offering that batters have had a hard time making quality contact against. It gives Cantillo a solid third pitch to go along with his fastball and changeup, one that could help him get out of jams when hitters take advantage of that bad fastball.
Another issue for Cantillo, aside from a bad fastball, has been poor control. He has routinely posted double-digit walk rates throughout his minor league career, and he has an 11.9% BB rate this season. That is untenable for a major league starter, and he will have to cut down on those walks. He’s issued 18 walks in seven starts so far, with Cantillo issuing multiple free passes in all but one start. Between the walks and the bad fastball, Cantillo could be a WHIP killer; I don’t want that 1.40 WHIP anywhere near my ratios.
Verdict:
Cantillo has a few things going for him, namely, strong secondary stuff. His changeup is putting up dominant strikeout numbers, and Cantillo could be an above-average strikeout pitcher as a result. His curveball is also stifling hitters and has been excellent at inducing groundballs, giving him two strong weapons on the mound. Unfortunately, Cantillo has some flaws that may prove fatal. His fastball is terrible, like slow and doesn’t spin or move levels of terrible. It’s going to get hit hard as a result, and Cantillo will have a difficult time overcoming this pitch.
He also has displayed poor control throughout his professional career, and that hasn’t changed despite lots of time in the minor leagues. Cantillo could be trouble for one’s WHIP and possibly ERA, too, if enough of these walks and hits come around to score. The strikeouts are enticing, and there is a place to use a pitcher like Cantillo, but one should pick their spots. Don’t use him when protecting ratios. Instead, stream Cantillo when you are down or behind in weekly H2H and need to take a chance on someone with some upside. Otherwise, he’s someone I’d avoid.
Jack Perkins, Athletics – 7% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 22.2 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 13.8% K-BB%
08/09 @ BAL: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Perkins picked up his first career win and first career quality start on Saturday, holding the O’s to three runs over six innings for the longest start of his young career. Perkins had primarily been working out of the bullpen for the Athletics, but was converted to a starter at the beginning of August and has made two starts so far. Can Perkins emerge as a valuable piece, or should we keep him on the wire?
Originally a fifth-round pick out of Indiana, Perkins wasn’t considered much of a prospect coming up. Fangraphs had him ranked as the Athletics' number 21 prospect following last season, which isn’t a very good ranking for a 25-year-old righty and indicated a future bullpen role was likely. Perkins works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, cutter, changeup, and curveball.
Perkins' most-used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, which he threw 32% of the time against Baltimore and throws 42.8% of the time overall. A 96.1 mph offering, Perkins hasn’t lost much velocity since converting to a starter; he still averaged 96.3 mph on Saturday. The fastball has average drop and spin, but plus horizontal movement, giving it 11.5 inches of arm-side run. Batters have had no trouble with Perkins’ four-seamer this season, hitting .304 against the pitch with a .500 SLG and a .395 wOBA.
The expected stats suggest that Perkins has been unlucky in these results, as he has a .256 xBA, .369 xSLG, and a .331 xwOBA with the four-seamer. He will likely experience regression on the .343 BABIP against his fastball, especially since he has a 20-degree average launch angle and an 88.8 mph average exit velocity against it. He isn’t giving up the type of hard contact that would lead to such poor results, so hopefully, he will experience positive regression going forward.
Perkins’ next most-used pitch is the sweeper, which he has thrown 34% of the time overall and 27% of the time on Saturday. An 85.7 mph offering, Perkins’ sweeper has plus spin at 2767 RPM and below-average vertical movement and average horizontal movement. Here’s an example from earlier this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) August 11, 2025
Looks dirty there, and Perkins has gotten some incredible results with this pitch thus far. Opponents are hitting just .083 off the sweeper, along with a .194 SLG and a .156 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Perkins can sustain strong results, with a .155 xBA, .235 xSLG, and .207 xwOBA against. This has been an excellent strikeout pitch for Perkins, as he has a 39.5% whiff rate with the sweeper and notched three of his 14 whiffs with the pitch in this start.
Even when batters make contact with the sweeper, they haven’t done much. Perkins has an 84.5 mph average exit velocity against his sweeper this season, and overall has an 85.9 mph average exit velocity. This is still a rather small sample size, but if he can sustain such a low average exit velocity, he’d be among the league’s best in terms of limiting hard contact. All of his pitches have an average exit velocity below 89 mph, so he can induce this weak contact with his entire arsenal.
The fastball and sweeper have been the two primary offerings for Perkins so far, as he’s thrown them a combined 76.8% of the time. He still has a deep arsenal, however, and Perkins had four pitches on display prominently on Saturday. He used his cutter a season-high 24% of the time in this start, and the cutter has performed quite well this season. Batters are hitting just .125 off Perkins’ cutter, along with a .125 SLG and .110 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that some regression is coming, but that Perkins can still put up strong results with a .216 xBA, .246 xSLG, and .202 xwOBA.
A 93.9 mph offering, Perkins’ cutter has league-average movement and plus spin. It’s a hard cutter, as 93.9 mph would be the hardest average cutter among qualified starters, if Perkins had enough innings to qualify. It’s been quite difficult for opposing batters to square up, as Perkins has an unreal 80.9 mph average exit velocity against this pitch, and a hilariously low 6.7% line drive rate as well. It’s not much of a strikeout pitch with just a 22.2% whiff rate, but Perkins will be sawing off bats with this thing, and it could become a bigger part of his repertoire as he gets stretched out and pitches deeper into games.
Perkins rounds out his repertoire with a changeup, a pitch he’s only thrown 8% of the time, but has gotten some interesting results. Perkins is currently sporting a .000 AVG against his changeup, along with a -18 degree average launch angle and a 62.5% whiff rate. Now, he’s only thrown 37 changeups, so we can’t get too excited, but this is a legit pitch. An 89.5 mph offering, Perkins’ changeup has above-average drop and break, giving it some wild movement. Here’s an example from earlier this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) August 11, 2025
That’s a nasty pitch and should pair well with his fastball. It would be interesting to see Perkins incorporate this pitch more into his sequencing, as it has the potential to be a strong offering for him against lefties.
There’s a lot to like about Perkins’ raw stuff, and I’m hopeful he can make the transition to starting pitcher successfully. That being said, one issue he needs to work on is walks. Walks have long been an issue for Perkins, who routinely had walk rates above 10% in the minor leagues.
His current 9.5% BB rate won’t kill him, but it is a detriment, and I am concerned about his efficiency on the mound. His first start only lasted three innings in part because he issued three free passes. He’s only had three appearances all year where he hasn’t issued a walk. He isn’t so bad that it’ll sink his chances to be a competent starter, but it is a concern worth addressing.
Verdict:
There’s reason to be excited about Perkins. He throws hard and has three strong secondary offerings to mix in with his heat. His sweeper looks like a bona fide strikeout pitch that he can wield against righties and lefties. His cutter has been nigh impossible to hit for opponents, and hitting his changeup has literally been impossible with a .000 AVG against. Perkins has strong strikeout numbers in the minor leagues, and I think they will translate to the majors to some degree. He may not have a 13.91 K/9 in MLB like he has at Triple-A this season, but he could be a plus strikeout pitcher. He’s also done an excellent job at inducing weak contact with an 85.9 mph average exit velocity against.
Perkins is raw and inexperienced, and he’ll get the next two months to prove he can hack it as an MLB starter. His biggest flaw seems to be poor control, as he’s had some ugly walk rates in the minor leagues. I don’t think the walks are bad enough to sink him, and he is worth picking up in most leagues, though I’d pick my spots starting him until he shows us more stability. His next start comes against the Angels, and I think you could use him there. The Angels have just a .313 team wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, along with a 25.7% K rate, second-highest in the majors behind Colorado.
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