MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/11/2025)

August 11, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Brent Rooker, Junior Caminero, and Max Muncy.

After hitting two home run props on Saturday, I (as the main DFS and betting editor at RotoBaller) decided to write more HR prop content and less NRFI content. I'm still betting NRFIs every day, and you should check out my guy Frank Ammirante's NRFI bets today; however, I feel like I am dialed in with home runs and ready to go on a nice run!

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, August 11, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/11/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, August 11:

• Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
• Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies
• Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
• Brent Rooker, Athletics

Noelvi Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)

The Reds' offense had been scuffling through August until yesterday, when they erupted for 14 runs on the road against the Pirates. Cincinnati got home runs from Spencer Steer, Miguel Andujar, and Noelvi Marte - all of whom I considered today in this matchup against the Phillies' worst starter, Taijuan Walker.

Walker has a respectable 3.53 ERA, but his underlying numbers don't support it. He's in a dangerous spot today in a great hitting environment, as it's going to be hot in Great American Ball Park with a slight breeze blowing out. Those conditions favor the hitters, and Walker has already had issues with home runs this season, allowing 1.6 HR/9.

Walker has some slight reverse splits, allowing better numbers across the board (though many margins are small) to right-handed hitters. The righty with the best numbers against RHP in the Cincy lineup is Marte, who is slugging .571 with a .270 ISO.

Marte has raw power and only a 15% K% against RHP this season. He should have a great chance at getting some good wood on the ball today, as Walker has a 90% Z-Contact% and only a 7% SwStr%.

Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

Moniak was running hotter than just about any hitter in the league until last week, when he inevitably cooled off. But he's putting together an impressive campaign this season in Colorado with 17 home runs so far and a respectable .262 batting average.

I love this spot for Moniak, as lefties have been feasting on Miles Mikolas this season. The veteran righty has been hit hard this season, and lefties have done a lot of the damage with 13 of the 21 home runs that he's allowed so far.

Since the start of June, Mickey Moniak has a higher OPS than ANYONE in baseball not named Nick Kurtz!@markdero7 breaks down the former No. 1 overall pick and how he's been able to hit the ground running since joining the @Rockies. pic.twitter.com/LzrahmxROh

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 8, 2025

Mikolas is a fly-ball pitcher who also doesn't strike guys out (16% K%, 7% SwStr%), which is a bad combination. His 12.3% barrel% is the second-worst on the slate behind only his mound opponent, Chase Dollander.

The weather conditions are St. Louis are favorable for hitters, too, as it's going to be in the high 80s with winds blowing out.

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Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

Normally, I wouldn't target Jose Soriano with a hitter for a home run. He's allowed only four long balls this season and has an elite GB% at 66.7%. However, we have some very good hitting conditions at Angel Stadium with 57% humidity and winds blowing out to center field, and we have a very hot Dodger bat who happens to match up quite well.

Max Muncy sneaks this one down the left field line for a two-run homer! pic.twitter.com/TW1bkU7FSQ

— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025

Muncy has three home runs in the last week and has been crushing the baseball over the last two months. The reason I like him so much against Soriano is the fact that he's been hitting sinkers particularly well, and that's Soriano's main pitch (51% usage). Muncy's hitting .344 against sinkers with a .781 SLG and 61% HardHit%. He's always been a great low-ball hitter as he has a natural uppercut swing that maximizes his launch angle (88th percentile is launch angle sweet spot).

This is a deep dive stat nerd pick, and I'm probably one of the only touts today making this recommendation, so I hope Muncy comes through!

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings)

If you have been betting on home runs this season, then you have to know already that we always give strong consideration to games played at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. We just happen to have two HR-prone pitchers on the mound tonight and some favorable winds blowing out, too, so I'm going to target at least one hitter on each team in this game.

Jeffrey Springs has a major fly-ball tendency and a 1.5 HR/9 mark on the season. He's allowed 19 home runs to righties this season and has been slightly worse at home than on the road in terms of run prevention and home runs allowed.

Junior Caminero annihilates this pitch and makes things interesting 👀 pic.twitter.com/eqqmTd7FFY

— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025

Caminero is having a tremendous season with 32 home runs on the year and continues to punish pitchers who make mistakes. He's got four home runs in his last five games, and I look for him to keep his hot streak going in this positive matchup and great game environment.

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 FanDuel)

If you're wondering what I am talking about when I say elite hitting conditions, check out the visual here courtesy of Doink Sports. You can see that the temperature and winds could line up with an already small ballpark to make for a home run-friendly night.

I respect Ryan Pepiot as a pitcher; he's having a fine season. However, one of his weaknesses has been the long ball as he's sporting a 1.59 HR/9 this season. Part of that has to do with pitching in a minor league park in Tampa, but it also has to do with his struggles against right-handed hitters.

Pepiot has some extreme reverse splits, allowing 15 home runs to righties (and a .477 SLG) while giving up just nine home runs to lefties (and a .376 SLG). It has to do with his pitch mix to righties, where he features his slider instead of his cutter, and his slider has been getting smacked around to the tune of a .608 SLG.

I love Rooker here as the best power-hitting right-handed option on the Athletics in this spot. Sure, Shea Langeliers has been the hottest Athletics bat, but Rooker handles the fastball-slider combo quite well and has a nice history against Pepiot (.375 average and a home run).

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