RADIO
TourPicks ranks his top-10 Players to watch for at the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. His insights on the top-10 golfers for the week and reasons why they are primed to win.
The final Major Championship of the 2025 season has raced upon us, with the best in the world returning to the coast of Northern Ireland to take on the Dunluce Course at historic Royal Portrush. The riveting, natural terrain of Royal Portrush provides the perfect early morning viewing experience for those in America, blissfully watching along to see who will be crowned the Champion Golfer of the Year.
In this article, given the historical context and data, I'll break down my Top 10 Power Rankings for players based on recent form and specific player profiles that I believe are the best data-driven fits for Royal Portrush. With a careful eye on data from the 2019 Open Championship, we can identify skill sets for players that are best suited for success, giving them a high probability of lifting the Claret Jug.
Let’s get right into my Top 10 Power Rankings for the 2025 Open Championship:
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No. 10 - Jordan Spieth
A bit of a curveball and surprise entrant into my Top-10 Rankings, Jordan Spieth has been carefully putting the pieces together, which have made him so successful over the years at The Open Championship. He's one of only five players in the field who have made the cut in each of the last five Open Championships.
The 2027 Open winner at Royal Birkdale has quietly gained strokes in each of his last twelve tournaments, his longest such run in a very long time. He spoke this past week about his health, which is in good standing, and he arrives in Northern Ireland coming off a 7th-place finish at the Memorial Tournament and a terrific week with his irons at Oakmont during the U.S. Open.
Spieth has gained +41 strokes at The Open over the past five years. It is one of the best marks of any player in the field, and Royal Portrush should suit his creative eye, as they feature some of the most provocative, sloping greens on the Open-rota. He's flying under the radar, but I would not be surprised to see a great week from Jordan Spieth.
No. 9 - Shane Lowry
You simply cannot leave the 2019 Open Championship winner at Royal Portrush off the list. A short drive off the property through town boasts a massive mural of a smiling Lowry holding the Claret Jug. His round on Saturday in 2019, a scorching 63 that remains the course record, was one of the more heroic rounds of golf that I can remember.
He possesses accuracy off the tee and a deep understanding of how to manipulate the golf ball in wind, two key attributes at Royal Portrush. Six holes feature OB white stakes, so the ability to hit the ball straight is paramount to avoiding the quick ejection from the tournament.
I do worry about his performances this year in the Majors, a serious blemish for Lowry to overcome. Poor missed cuts at Quail Hollow and Oakmont, where he showed frustration and malcontent on the course, are not great signs. He deserves to be in the Top 10, but it's hard to picture him winning back-to-back at Portrush given the circumstances.
A little visit to Portrush @TheOpen ☘️ pic.twitter.com/GUdzFXNd66
— Shane Lowry (@ShaneLowryGolf) June 27, 2025
No. 8 - Viktor Hovland
The pureness of the strike on the golf ball may be the most quantifiable skill when it comes to predicting Links Golf success, and nobody hits it out of the center of the clubface as often as Viktor Hovland.
I'm unconcerned by a missed cut last year, as Hovland showcased the ability to be up to the task playing links golf in his first three appearances at The Open Championship (T12, T4, and T13). The incoming form with the irons has been exceptional, but much is often the case with Hovland; the short game is holding the reins.
It's not so much the chipping, but his putting has been quite awful. It was on full display again at the Scottish Open. If Hovland can figure out his lag putting and gain some confidence on the greens, watch out. The sky is the limit and the only question for Hovland and The Open is when...not if.
No. 7 - Collin Morikawa
The world-class level of accuracy off the tee that helped propel Shane Lowry to his win here in 2019 should be a similar game plan for Collin Morikawa in 2025. Statistically, 2025 has been his best T2G year of his career, averaging +1.42 strokes per round, so it's strange that Morikawa hasn't mixed in contention more often this year.
The 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year will arrive in Ireland winless in his last two years while consistently being ranked as one of the top 5 players on the planet, a lonely conundrum unique to professional golf. The putter is always the concern, but the slower greens at Royal Portrush could potentially free him up to be more aggressive.
Frankly, he fits the bill perfectly for recent Champions. If you rule out St. Andrews, where precision is disproportionately unrewarded, the list of Champions includes Morikawa, Lowry, Molinari, and Brian Harman. Veteran caddie Billy Foster will be carrying the clubs for Morikawa, and he should be able to guide of player of this caliber expertly around the Dunluce routing. I like his chances here.
No. 6 - Bryson DeChambeau
Bryson DeChambeau has carefully curated his mind, his body, and his equipment to optimize his chances of success at American Major Championship venues. I'm far from saying he can't do anything he puts his mind to, but DeChambeau has yet to solve the puzzle that is links-style golf.
His only career Top 30 result at The Open Championship came in 2022 at St. Andrews, where DeChambeau was able to effectively relegate the Home of Golf into a pitch and putt. His biggest weapon is somewhat neutralized on a course setup like Royal Portrush, but that's not to say his distance won't be a huge advantage if he can just keep it out of the fescue.
He's going to figure this out, just like he figured out how to become the longest player in the game. Just like he figured out his chipping, enough to where he's leading the LIV Tour in scrambling. Will it be there this year in Ireland? Part of me would like to see the bread crumbs laid before backing him with a bet, but his price will likely present a ton of value if you think he's going to solve The Open.
No. 5 - Xander Schauffele
It's been a season in need of a jump start for Xander Schauffele, who will arrive in Northern Ireland winless in 2025 with his sights set on changing that narrative and flying back home with the Claret Jug. A scorching 65 in the final round last year at Royal Troon, the best of the day by two shots, cemented his spot in history and gave Schauffele his second Major of the season in 2024.
He's been the most effective American player at The Open Championship over the past five years by a good margin. Even before that, when he burst onto the scene with a T2 at Carnoustie, Schauffele has consistently put himself in deep contention overseas to win golf tournaments.
The most troubling metric that I believe hurts his chances in 2025 are his changes to the ballflight this year. Previously, his low penetrating draw was ideal for Links-golf, but Schauffele is hitting it substantially higher OTT this season and I think it has made it more difficult to control. His average Driver apex height last season was 97 ft. In 2025, it is 115 ft. If he can figure out how to keep it low at Royal Portrush, he's got all the other tools to win another Open Championship.
No. 4 - Tommy Fleetwood
With all the attributes that you would ever want from a player at Royal Portrush, Tommy Fleetwood is ideally suited for success and the opportunity to win. The ironic question, as always with Fleetwood, is can he really do it? Does he have what it takes to use the pressure as fuel rather than letting it get the best of him?
He'll likely have the chance to prove all the doubters wrong once again this week. Fleetwood has made significant improvements with his chipping and long iron play in 2025, while maintaining his high level of historical averages in most other categories along the way. On paper, he does everything well.
But something happens in round 4. It is by far his worst day for scoring average, and while you could stretch for excuses at many of his previously runner-ups, there wasn't much to say about the most recent collapse at the Travelers. He finished in 2nd place in 2019 at Royal Portrush,
Tommy Fleetwood looks back on his runner-up finish at Royal Portrush. pic.twitter.com/dvN6cAfqXc
— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) July 22, 2020
and there is a high likelihood we will see him once again on the first page of the leaderboard come late Sunday in 2025.
No. 3 - Jon Rahm
The player in the field who has gained more strokes than any other player at The Open Championship over the past five seasons is none other than Jon Rahm. His +49 SG mark is untouched, finishing 7th or better in three of the last four years and was T11 when The Open was last played at Royal Portrush in 2019.
His effortlessly powerful and high fade with the Driver is ideal for this course, and his comfort level in terms of chipping and scrambling around the greens internally gives him a huge advantage.
The question is, has the move to LIVGolf hampered his preparation and chances to compete to win Major Championships? He's the third favorite for good reason, but it's hard to reason that playing three rounds in Valderrama will provide him the same level of prep for Portrush that the PGA Tour players are getting in Scotland. That said, he can overcome anything and is a real threat to win any time, on any tour.
No. 2 - Scottie Scheffler
I know, I know. He's unequivocally the best player in professional golf. The Open Championship is the one thing left to master on his quest for world domination. He has shown glimpses of greatness, but his best career finish to date was his T7 result at Royal Troon last season.
The overwhelming narrative, which I have also subscribed to, is that Scottie Scheffler thrives on probability. Course setups that provide consistency create a more predictable environment, allowing Scheffler the space to capitalize on probability. When the outcome is fair and just, there is no one better.
The rate of fairness or predictability is just not the same in links-golf. You can get a bad weather wave, a tough break in a pot bunker, or a stubborn lie in the fescue. For the sake of a good story and hope of the hometown fans at Royal Portrush, I have decide to make another golfer No. 1 in my rankings.
No. 1 - Rory McIlroy
The favorite to win the 2019 Open Championship is 2nd on the oddsboard to win the 2025 edition, the most accomplished professional athlete in Northern Ireland's history, Rory McIlroy. As I put the finishing touches on this article, he's leading the Scottish Open through three rounds and trending perfectly to win his second Major Championship of 2025.
We have ourselves another tournament where McIlroy will tee up on Thursday with a 500 lb. Gorilla of pressure on his shoulders. It was too much to handle in 2019, as McIlroy made a quadruple bogey on his opening hole and a triple bogey on his last in route to an opening round 79. We all remember.
That said, did you remember that he shot the new course record 65 (Lowry shot 2 better on the weekend to break the record) on Friday to almost heroically make the weekend. It's been a year of peaks and valleys for McIlroy, but he has the chance to complete one of the greatest seasons in the history of the game if he can slay yet another dragon to win the Claret Jug in his home country at Royal Portrush.
The scenes would be mind-bending, and I can't think of a better way to finish out this Major Season than with McIlroy atop the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon as the sun rests at Portrush.
Enjoy the Open Championship, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
Rory McIlroy's magical Masters mood could be back as he storms to Scottish Open summit in preparation for Portrushhttps://t.co/v37Pi5uxCE pic.twitter.com/7HP7lLIBjb
— Daily Record Sport (@Record_Sport) July 12, 2025
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