6 Fantasy Football Undervalued or Overvalued AFC West Draft Picks: Top Targets/Avoids for 2025

Dave's 2025 fantasy football outlook for the AFC West. His top sleepers, busts, targets, and fades for the Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos, including Justin Herbert and more.

Every year in fantasy football drafts, there are players we want to target and those we want to avoid. It’s one of the core strategies to winning your league. The Kansas City Chiefs have long dominated the AFC West, and they have been a fantasy gold mine for years in the process. Be that as it may, there are still other players in the AFC West we need to discuss.

As part of our in-depth fantasy football coverage here at RotoBaller, we are examining which players you should target and which ones you should fade across all eight divisions in the NFL. Today, we will break down several players from the AFC West, as well as what you should do with these players.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several AFC West players to target and fade in your 2025 fantasy football draft.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
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• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
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AFC West Targets

Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

While Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty got all the headlines as the clear-cut RB1 of the incoming rookie class, Hampton isn’t that far behind.

Omarion Hampton Ranked in the 97th Percentile in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (4.3)

➖Age: 21 (Early Declare)
➖Size: 6’0, 220 lbs

Hampton’s Averages over the last 2 Seasons:

➖24 Touches Per Game
➖150.4 Yards Per Game
➖1.32 TD’s Per Game

Future Workhorse RB1 in the NFL pic.twitter.com/Dfd8kA8zIi

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) January 29, 2025

Hampton is an extremely talented back who excelled at the NFL Combine. It was also reported that some teams had him and Jeanty neck and neck for the RB1 title.

The Chargers are very bullish on Hampton's future and felt comfortable spending the 22nd overall pick on him in the NFL Draft. It's easy to see why. His tape is great, and he scored well in several advanced metrics. Among 161 collegiate rushers with 100+ carries, Hampton ranked 15th in PFF's elusive rating, 10th in PFF's rushing grade, and sixth in missed tackles forced (MTF).

Hampton will have to beat out former Pittsburgh Steeler Najee Harris for the RB1 job in Los Angeles. While Harris was better in Pittsburgh than many would like to admit, he is not the same caliber of player as Hampton.

This was arguably the best landing spot for a rookie running back, and it's only a matter of time before Hampton takes over this backfield. When he does, there will be some monster games in his future, and Hampton could be a league winner.

R.J. Harvey - RB, Denver Broncos

Harvey was selected 60th overall by the Denver Broncos in the 2025 NFL Draft. It was a noteworthy selection as Harvey was initially viewed as an underrated prospect and wasn’t expected to receive Round 2 draft capital.

However, Sean Payton and the Broncos saw something they liked in the rookie.

RJ Harvey TO THE HOUSE

What an answer by @UCF_Football 🔥

(brought to you by @wendys #ad #WendysPartner) pic.twitter.com/0YH8EHkvHR

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2024

Harvey is a talented player with good vision, burst, and contact balance. Combine that with Sean Payton’s offense as well as his history of drafting running backs (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram II, Alvin Kamara), and it’s easy to get excited about Harvey’s prospects.

His advanced metrics in college were also quite good. Among 161 collegiate backs with 100+ carries in 2024, Harvey finished 14th in PFF rushing grade, 19th in PFF elusive rating, and eighth in missed tackles forced. He is an underrated receiver and should thrive in Payton’s offense.

Harvey’s fantasy value took a bit of a hit following Denver’s signing of J.K. Dobbins. While that's understandable, it’s worth pointing out that there have been several times Payton’s offenses have produced multiple fantasy-relevant backs.

Dobbins caps Harvey’s upside, but the rookie can still be a strong contributor at the running back position. Consider Harvey a solid RB2 with upside for more.

Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Rice was on track for a huge season last year as he posted a 35 percent targets per route run (TPRR) as well as a remarkable 3.47 yards per route run (YPRR) in the season's first three games per Fantasy Points Data Suite. He looked to be emerging as the Chiefs' clear top receiver. However, his season ended prematurely in Week 4 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Chiefs place WR Rashee Rice on injured reserve. pic.twitter.com/TuZ9sSaklw

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2024

As disappointing as that was, Rice now enters 2025 fully healthy and is looking to pick up right where he left off in 2024.

Mahomes ➡️ Rice, what a connection!

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/5jkq5qhePc

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Rice faces additional target competition from Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, and Travis Kelce. However, with Kelce now another year older and clearly in decline, Rice should retain his underneath/yards after catch role in the Chiefs offense.

Update - Rice is expected to have his hearing with the NFL on September 30. As a result, Rice will now likely be able to play in the first four games of the season before any potential suspension is given.

AFC West Avoids

Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce is one of the best tight ends to ever suit up, but his best days are behind him. Even though he caught 97 passes last year, his efficiency took a major dip, and he averaged a career worst 8.5 yards per reception.

The aforementioned Rashee Rice returns fully healthy this year, and he poses a major threat to Kelce for targets. In three games last year with a fully healthy Rice, Kelce only posted an 8-69-0 line. With Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown remaining in the mix, there is more target competition for Kelce than ever before.

While Kelce has been a fantasy stalwart for many years, 2025 feels like the right time to fade him.

Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Many analysts had Pacheco pinned for a breakout season last year, but things didn't quite pan out that way. He suffered a broken fibula in Week 2, and that completely derailed his season.

Pacheco would not return until Week 13, but he was not immediately re-inserted into the lineup as Kansas City’s RB1. Maybe the team wanted to bring him up to speed slowly, but it could also have been because his play was subpar. Pacheco averaged a career worst 3.7 yards per carry last year and did not score well in a variety of advanced metrics. Some of this could be explained by Pacheco's injury. Still, it was curious to see him splitting carries with veteran Kareem Hunt well into the postseason when Pacheco was further removed from his injury.

Pacheco will seem like a tempting pick at his current ADP. However, he may not be the same player following his injury, similar to what we saw from Tony Pollard in 2023. If that's the case, there's no guarantee the Chiefs will stick with Pacheco if he is ineffective.

Pass on draft day, as there are better value picks at running back with fewer question marks.

Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Unfortunately, Herbert’s first season under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman went exactly as expected. Herbert averaged the fewest pass attempts per game of his career and failed to break 4,000 passing yards.

He did have a successful season and threw 23 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. However, the Chargers' new offensive approach didn’t equate to elite fantasy production as Herbert finished 2024 as the QB19 in fantasy points per game.

With the offseason additions of Harris and Hampton, it appears that the Chargers will continue to heavily rely on their ground game. That should mean more of the same for Herbert in 2025. He’s still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, but the recipe for elite fantasy football production isn’t here.

There are better late-round quarterbacks to target in drafts this year.

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