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Joey looks at three starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Chad Patrick, Ryne Nelson, and Landen Roupp for real?
It's not surprising to see several pitchers starting to break out. In last week's edition, we highlighted Jacob Lopez, Brandon Walter, and Matthew Liberatore a part of our weekly series looking at which pitchers are for real. If you are interested in reading more about those pitchers, be sure to check out last week's article.
In this article, we will look at three more potential breakout pitchers in Chad Patrick, Ryne Nelson, and Landen Roupp. All three pitchers have thrown the ball well in recent weeks and have proved to be strong fantasy options in 2025.
So, are Patrick, Nelson, and Roupp for real? Should fantasy managers pick up these players in Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season? Let's dive in and find out.
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Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Stats: 89 2/3 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.316 WHIP, 93 K
Rostership: 38% in Yahoo! leagues
No one knew what to expect from Patrick to begin the 2025 season. He only made Milwaukee's Opening Day roster because Jose Quintana needed time to build up, and Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) was on the 15-day IL. Therefore, the assumption was that he would make a few starts before moving to the bullpen in a bulk reliever role.
However, it's safe to say that the Brewers are fairly happy with Patrick's contributions as a starter in his rookie season. He has a 3.51 ERA and 92 strikeouts across 18 games (17 starts) and is coming off one of the better starts of his career last week against the Colorado Rockies. The right-hander threw five shutout innings with eight strikeouts in that outing.
Although Patrick dealt with some inconsistencies in June, it's encouraging to see him generate more swings and misses over the past month. He has struck out at least eight batters in three of his past four starts, including a career-high nine punchouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 23. His cutter has played a big part in his recent strikeout numbers.
Chad Patrick, Painted 87mph Back Door Cutter. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/iB3nDskX0h
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025
Patrick throws that pitch the most at 42.4%, and it's easy to see why. He has struck out 38 batters on that pitch while carrying a 25.4% whiff rate. In that start against the Pirates last week, the 26-year-old generated seven whiffs on his cutter alone. However, if the right-hander wants to be a complete pitcher in the majors, he has to throw his off-speed stuff more.
He rarely throws his slider (6.7%) and changeup (6%), and only really leans on his fastball-type pitches (cutter, four-seamer, and sinker). It would be nice to see Patrick lean on his slider more moving forward, considering opposing hitters are batting just .190 against his slider this season.
Verdict: Patrick has shown a lot of growth on the mound in his rookie campaign. He has proved that he could be a solid starter in the majors and has the chance to stay in Milwaukee's rotation for the rest of the season. Nevertheless, fantasy managers should expect some regression from him in the next few weeks.
Patrick ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (.257), whiff rate (23.1%), hard-hit rate (43.9%), and average exit velocity (93.9 mph). With opposing hitters batting above .260 on his top two pitches thrown (cutter and four-seam), it's hard not to imagine some rougher outings upcoming. Therefore, the Brewers pitcher is only a streamer in the right matchups right now.
Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Stats: 67 1/3 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.025 WHIP, 59 K
Rostership: 37% in Yahoo! leagues
There's no doubt that Nelson struggled as a starter in each of the past two years. He finished with a 5.31 ERA across 144 innings in 2023 and then had a 4.24 ERA in 150 2/3 innings pitched in 2024. Those struggles led to the Diamondbacks moving the right-hander to the bullpen in a bulk reliever role before the season.
In his first few appearances out of the bullpen, Nelson had some ups and downs. He allowed at least four runs in two of his first five appearances and dealt with some of the same problems on the mound from last year. Since then, though, the 27-year-old has moved into a starter role and been locked down at the back end of Arizona's rotation. He has a 3.05 ERA and 32 strikeouts across eight starts this season.
Nelson originally replaced Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation after the left-hander went on the 15-day injured list in the middle of May. Now, the right-hander is set to replace Corbin Burnes (elbow) for the rest of the year after the All-Star pitcher injured his elbow in early June.
Ryne Nelson's 2Ks in the 4th.
6Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/maIawHQbFo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2025
Nelson is showing signs of a breakout since rejoining Arizona's rotation. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts and has struck out seven batters in consecutive starts for the first time this season.
The biggest thing working in the right-hander's favor is his four-seam fastball. He is throwing it around 7% more than he did last year, which has led to him cutting back on his cutter. However, the four-seam fastball usage has been a large reason for his early season success. Opposing hitters are batting .182 against that pitch, and 43 of his 59 strikeouts have come on that pitch in 2025.
Verdict: After watching Nelson struggle in each of the past two seasons, it's been nice to see him have a breakout campaign this year. The results have been there, and his increased curveball usage has complemented his fastball quite well. Therefore, the Diamondbacks pitcher could be worth an add in most 12-plus team leagues in Week 14.
He has an elite 1.02 WHIP and hasn't allowed many hitters to reach base in recent weeks. With a solid 7.8% walk rate, Nelson appears on track to have a career year on the mound.
Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants
2025 Stats: 81 1/3 IP, 3.43 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.439 WHIP, 74 K
Rostership: 31% in Yahoo! leagues
Fantasy managers didn't get to see much from San Francisco Giants pitcher Landen Roupp as a starter in 2024. He only made four starts with the Giants last year and allowed six runs across 3 2/3 innings to end the season. So, it made sense why Roupp wasn't on anyone's radar in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
Nevertheless, Roupp should be on everyone's radar at the midway point of the fantasy season. The right-hander has a solid 3.43 ERA in his first 16 starts this year and has been a reliable No. 3 pitcher in San Francisco's rotation. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 16 outings in 2025, including in each of his past two starts.
Roupp threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Red Sox on June 21 and then followed that up by giving up zero earned runs across 5 1/3 innings against the White Sox on June 27. Those two starts encapsulate just the type of pitcher he has been all year. That has allowed him to emerge as a reliable option for fantasy managers over the past two months.
Landen Roupp, Filthy 78mph Curveball. 😷
7th K pic.twitter.com/rCumJiXOJ0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2025
Roupp leans on his sinker the most at 39.5%, but it's his off-speed stuff (curveball and changeup) that has helped him find success in 2025. He throws those two pitches a combined 53% of the time, and most of his whiffs come from those off-speed pitches. His curveball has a 39% whiff rate, while his changeup has a 28.6% whiff rate.
Unsurprisingly, opposing hitters haven't been able to touch those two pitches this year. They are batting .174 with 44 strikeouts against his curveball and .191 with 10 strikeouts against his changeup. If Roupp continues to throw those two pitches at a high level, he has the chance to post even better numbers in the next few weeks.
Verdict: The biggest thing for Roupp moving forward is to limit damage on his sinker. Opposing hitters are batting a whopping .348 against that pitch in 2025, and most of his damage has come on the sinker. So, he'll need to clean that up if he wants to be a consistent starter in the majors over his career.
For this year, Roupp has shown enough good things on the mound to make him an add in most 12-plus team leagues. Although his WHIP (1.439) is extremely high, he continues to limit hard contact, and his strikeout numbers appear to be trending up. The Giants pitcher has a solid 35.7% hard-hit rate so far in the first half.
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