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Corbin analyzes fantasy baseball pitcher prospect stashes, pickups and sleeeprs for Week 6. Which rookie pitchers are worth adding based on their recent debuts?
We love to chase fantasy baseball rookies, especially top starting pitcher prospects. Sometimes we watch the fun highlights from a pitcher in the minor leagues, or maybe they have a GIF-worthy pitch. We can track starting pitcher data from the minor leagues with the new Statcast Minor League search function, assuming they pitched in a ballpark with the tracked data. With injuries and other factors, teams may lean on their rookie starting pitchers more often if they succeed.
However, we've seen many instances where a rookie starting pitcher struggles in their debut or the early sample. That typically leads to teams sending them back down to the minor leagues based on their situation. Unfortunately, there likely isn't a Paul Skenes or Jared Jones in this group. However, we had several serviceable rookie starting pitchers debut in 2025.
We can't emphasize the differences in competition from Double-A or Triple-A to the major leagues. Also, we're dealing with uber-small samples, so don't overreact to one or two poor outings because we need more information. We'll look at the underlying and pitch-level data from their major league sample while incorporating information from the minor leagues. Let's look through my process of examining starting pitchers and their arsenals. Reach out to me on X if you have a pitcher and have questions about it. Thank you for reading!
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Noah Cameron, SP, Kansas City Royals
Cameron has been a sleeper for fantasy managers in deeper formats after having a 21.1 percent strikeout minus walk rate and a 14.2 percent swinging strike rate in the minors in 2024. Though Cameron threw 6.1 scoreless innings, he struggled to throw strikes, with a 41.8 percent ball rate in his MLB debut. It's worth noting Cameron debuted on April 30 but pitched in Triple-A for two innings four days prior (April 26).
Cameron had decent control throughout the minors in 2024 at Double-A and Triple-A, evidenced by a 33.5 percent ball rate. He primarily used a four-pitch mix over 13 percent of the time via the four-seam (34.7 percent), changeup (23.4 percent), curveball (19.6 percent), and cutter (13.5 percent) in the minors. Cameron sprinkled in a sweeper and a slider, showing two different versions, with the downward movement being the differentiator.
He lowers the four-seam usage against right-handed hitters to 20.4 percent, possibly because of the mediocre levels of induced vertical break (IVB). As a left-handed pitcher, Cameron's changeup and curveball generated the most whiffs versus right-handed pitchers. That's evident by the changeup's 28.4 percent swinging strike rate and the curveball at 28.8 percent against righties.
Cameron hardly faced any lefties in his first outing, but it's worth noting he pumped sliders (61.1 percent) and four-seamers (33.3 percent) versus left-handed hitters. We've seen sliders and four-seamers work well against same-handed hitters for other pitchers, and that's especially helpful since he attacks righties relatively well.
Summary
In deeper Yahoo leagues with N/A spots, Cameron might be worth stashing because of the approach, control, and command of his deep arsenal. The same goes in 15-teamers with limited bench spots, fantasy managers could speculate on holding and stashing him if there's a team need for a starting pitcher. We know I loved Kris Bubic heading into 2025, and we should put some trust in the Royals' starting pitcher development with Bubic, Cole Ragans, and others.
Gunnar Hoglund, SP, Athletics
Hoglund might have the most job security, with multiple paths for more starts, even when J.T. Ginn returns. Luis Severino, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, and Jeffrey Springs have risk in their profiles. In the minors, Hoglund had decent, but not eye-popping numbers. He posted a 15.6 percent strikeout minus walk rate with an 11.7 percent swinging strike rate in 2024 across Double-A and Triple-A.
Control was somewhat of an issue, with a 37.1 percent ball rate in 2024. However, Hoglund's control slightly improved in 2025, with a 34.5 percent ball rate across Triple-A and the MLB sample. In the minors, Hoglund's sweeper (15.6 percent SwK) and changeup (15.1 percent SwK) were his two best pitches for whiffs.
His approach against righties seems more effective against lefties, evidenced by his 17.8 percent SwK via sweepers and 25.7 percent SwK against changeups. That's significantly better than his 7.8 percent SwK via the changeup and 5.9 percent against the sweeper, though we're dealing with a small sample of 18 whiffs (9.4 percent SwK) overall versus lefties.
Hoglund generates high-end extension levels, helping his four-seam possess near-elite IVB in his first MLB outing (19.8 inches). That's notably three inches higher than his four-seam IVB in the minors in 2025 (16.8 inches), significantly different from 2024 (11.1 inches). How did the four-seam IVB change that much?
Hoglund's vertical release point increased by over three inches (3.1), with his horizontal release shifted nine inches closer to his midline. Interestingly, he didn't lose extension with the significant release point changes, but his arm angle moved. Theoretically, Hoglund's new release points should allow him to generate more vertical movement on his pitches, though it might vary by pitch type.
Summary
Initially, we expected to be underwhelmed by Hoglund based on the minor league numbers. However, Hoglund notably made release point changes, translating into movement shifts. There's the foundation of the elite four-seam IVB, plus the extension to make it a tough pitch to square up if he locates it in the upper areas of the zone.
Additionally, Hoglund's sweeper and changeup can give him 1-2 pitches to stay afloat against either side of the plate. Hoglund profiles like a deep league streamer, but can he find an approach to battle left-handed hitters?
Blade Tidwell, SP, New York Mets
It starts with the control for Tidwell, given his 38.1 percent ball rate in the minors in 2024, with similar numbers in 2025 (37.8 percent ball rate). He had an 11.6 percent SwK in 2024 but flashed a 14.5 percent SwK in the minors this season (2025). In Tidwell's first MLB start, he had a 41.5 percent ball rate and an 8.5 percent SwK, though it was an uber-small sample of 82 pitches.
Most of Tidwell's seven whiffs came in the heart of the zone, so we have concerns with the locations, regardless of the minor league stuff. Tidwell's four-seam IVB of 18.1 inches with decent extension gives us hope for the heater. Before his call-up, the four-seam release point moved nearly four inches closer (3.7) to his midline compared to 2024, with decent IVB (17.2 inches).
Tidwell's four-seam locations in his MLB debut align with the location in the minors in 2025. That's concerning because hitters crushed his heater at Triple-A (2025), with a .476 wOBA (.388 xwOBA). If Tidwell can locate the four-seam higher in the zone with the high-end to near-elite levels of IVB, it can generate weak contact and whiffs.
Besides Tidwell's four-seamer, the sweeper was his best pitch, eliciting a 23.7 percent SwK and allowing a .214 wOBA (.227 xwOBA) in the minors (2025). His sweeper generated three whiffs (21.4 percent SwK) in his MLB outing, but hitters crushed it in the small sample.
Summary
Tidwell gives us Will Warren vibes with the four-seam, sweeper approach, but the changeup flashed during the minors. At Triple-A, Tidwell's changeup induced a 17.5 percent SwK and allowed a .145 wOBA (.126 xwOBA). After digging into the data, it makes sense to see the prospect evaluators having Tidwell with a mediocre or below-average command.
Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, and David Peterson dealt with injuries in the past, with workload questions for Clay Holmes. The Mets also have Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas hoping to return in 2025. Tidwell should earn another shot in the rotation, but the opportunities might be limited if he isn't consistent with the four-seam and sweeper.
Chase Petty, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Petty was called up during a doubleheader, so his future opportunities might be hard to come by. However, we've seen Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene deal with past injuries, so it's not impossible. Petty uses somewhat of a lower arm angle, likely lending itself toward more side-to-side movement than vertical.
That's somewhat evident in Petty's induced pitch movement profiles, with the four-seam having poor IVB (12 inches). Petty's four-seam IVB was close to the minor league numbers (13.2 inches), though his sinker tends to be the better fastball. His sinker generates groundballs with a -1 degree launch angle, leading to a .159 wOBA (.145 xwOBA) in the minors (2025).
Petty locates his sinker inside toward right-handed hitters, as a way to induce weak contact. Interestingly, Petty's sinker possesses 15-16 inches of horizontal movement toward his arm side in the minors. His four-seamer had around 16 inches of horizontal fade, making us wonder if there would be a pitch classification change with more MLB data.
Petty's slider (20.7 percent SwK) and changeup (16.2 percent SwK) were his two best pitches for whiffs, but only the slider limited the contact quality. That's evident by Petty's slider allowing a .181 wOBA (.156 xwOBA) and the changeup resulting in a .483 wOBA (.423 xwOBA) in the minors (2025).
Petty's slider is somewhat of a gyro-like one, and he leaves it in the zone often. Let's see if he can command and locate the slider better, though it looks more like a cutter based on the movement.
Meanwhile, it makes sense to find Petty's changeup being destroyed since it ideally should be located lower in the zone. Petty's changeup doesn't generate tons of downward movement but possesses a decent amount of arm-side fade. That makes most of Petty's induced movement profiles toward his arm side beside the slider. Maybe he can develop the sweeper or add a curveball to create depth and sweep to his arsenal.
Summary
Petty had below-average control in the minors (2024), with a 36.8 percent ball rate, better than his small sample in 2025 (39.5 percent). He showed he can elicit whiffs, with a 12-13 percent SwK in the minors over the past two seasons.
I'm intrigued by Petty's arsenal since we've seen this approach work from Lodolo from the left side, though the veteran uses a much lower arm angle while deploying a curveball. Petty might have more of an impact in the following season unless things go awry in the Reds rotation.
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