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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/4/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Get our home run prop picks today!
We rained out on one of my predictions yesterday (Jesse Winker), but he should be in the lineup today against Erick Fedde if you want to take another shot on him. Spencer Torkelson came through with a home run in the late game to give us a 1-3-1 record yesterday and a chance to break even.
Today, I have five new home run props for you, primarily focusing on some red-hot lefties who mash right-handed pitchers. I want to ride the hot bats of a few of these hitters, too, as I firmly believe that players often hit home runs in bunches as they start to settle into a groove.
Keep reading to find out my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, May 4, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Home Run Prop Picks Today
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, May 4:
- Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
- Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
- Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants
- Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
- Nathaniel Lowe, Washington Nationals
Vinnie Pasquantino 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
If you read yesterday's article, I lamented the struggles of the KC offense while recommending Bobby Witt Jr. against Tomoyuki Sugano of the Orioles. I was strongly considering Vinny P, too, but went with Witt instead, and of course, Pasquantino homers instead!
Vinnie Pasquantino stays hot—crushes his 3rd bomb in the last 7 games!
The Italian Nightmare is locked in!
— RotoLegends (@RotoLegends) May 4, 2025
Vinnie is still hitting just .185 this season, but now has five home runs, three of which have come in the last week. I can't ignore his matchup today, and he will face Kyle Gibson. In case you missed it, Gibson made his 2025 debut for Baltimore last week by serving up home runs to the first three hitters he faced and a fourth home run a few batters later.
Gibby is a ground ball pitcher, but he has always struggled with lefties, and if last week's debut was a glimpse at what he has to offer at this stage of his career, he might not last long in this rotation. Let's see if Vinnie can stay hot and yank one to right field, it's a great park in Baltimore for left-handed power!
Bo Naylor OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I have Cleveland lefties circled this morning as Bowden Francis has been torched by left-handers so far this season to the tune of eight home runs and .683 SLG. Francis has struggled this year after breaking out in the second half of the 2024 season. He has some of the worst contact metrics on the slate, so we will attack him with some Guardians hitters.
This came down to two hitters who both present nice value: catcher Bo Naylor and outfielder Nolan Jones. In the end, I decided to go with Naylor, who has been swinging the hotter bat this year and has the better overall numbers.
Naylor has six home runs this season, and three of those bombs came in last week. He also has a 60% fly ball rate and a very solid 36% hard contact rate. Hitting the ball hard and in the air adds up to home runs; it's really that simple. If you want to double up on this spot, Jones is the other guy as long as he's in the lineup. Jones has an even higher hard-hit rate at 42%, a solid 40% Pull%, and 40% FB%.
Matt Chapman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This has been a fun series for the Giants' third baseman as he has homered in back-to-back games against the Rockies, including a huge grand slam in yesterday's win.
Matt Chapman mashes a GRAND SLAM for the lead 😤 pic.twitter.com/OfOCHkhP8F
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2025
Chapman has seven home runs this season but is hitting just .205. As we've seen with some of my other selections, I am not too concerned with batting average when hunting home runs. All we need is one big swing to cash our prop, and our hitter could strike out three or even four times, and it wouldn't matter.
Chapman has been streaky this year with a few stretches where he gets hot and then a bunch of games where he cools off. I like rolling with him here against German Marquez, who enters this game with an ERA of 9.32 and only an 11% K%. He's been getting knocked around by hitters from both sides of the plate, too, so I am ignoring the typical hitter splits here and going with a righty-righty matchup.
A glance at the BvP stats shows that Chapman has two home runs off Marquez in eight career at-bats. It never hurts to see that a hitter has had some success against a pitcher, even if the sample size of at-bats is still relatively small.
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The Detroit cleanup hitter is in a nice spot here this afternoon against Angels pitcher Jack Kochanowicz. Greene, who had his second two-homer game last week on Friday night, is now up to eight home runs on the season and sports the best ISO number vs. RHP on the team.
No player in MLB history had ever hit 2 homers in the 9th inning of a game ... until Riley Greene last night.
(h/t @SlangsOnSports)
(MLB x @BudweiserUSA) pic.twitter.com/WckSd9djOY
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2025
Kochanowicz is an excellent target as he has given up a 10% barrel rate and struggles to miss bats (8% SwStr%, 92% Z-Contact%). He's been hit hard by lefties this year, too, allowing five home runs to Southpaws and an ugly .545 SLG.
Greene seems locked in at the plate right now as he's riding a six-game hitting streak, and his power numbers are rounding into form. Unlike Kerry Carpenter, he never gets pinch-hit for late in games either, so we should get at least four at-bats for him here.
Nathaniel Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
You might have guessed that James Wood or CJ Abrams had the best hard-hit rate against righties, but it's Lowe, who has quietly hit six home runs and driven in 27 runs in his first season in Washington.
Wood is a good bet here, but he's been hitting too many ground balls for my liking and spraying home runs all over the field. While that's great for his approach as a hitter, it's just going to make him very unpredictable for fantasy and betting purposes.
Lowe is a much more conventional power lefty who pulls the ball more and hits more line drives and fly balls than grounders. He also has significantly longer odds today, and I am all about hunting for value with these HR props.
Nick Martinez hasn't been bad, but his numbers are mediocre at best. We know the ball park is one of the best parks for hitters, and I'll happily wager on Lowe's power to play well in this park today.
If you're hunting for value in today's MLB hitter props market, this slate delivers exciting opportunities to cash in on red-hot bats and exploitable pitching matchups.
These home run props are based on recent form, advanced metrics, and favorable ballpark factors. As always, shop around for the best odds and don’t hesitate to back players trending upward, especially those with fly-ball and hard-hit profiles.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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