2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (October Update)

We are five weeks into the college football season. What does the new 12-team college football playoff bracket look like at the end of September? Mike Marteny takes a look.

We are already a third of the way through the college football season. While some teams such as Florida State and Kansas have already been eliminated from the playoff discussion, we have far more that are still in the running.

This pool of teams will shrink as the season wears on, but we here at RotoBaller are going to take stock of where we stand at the end of each month. Welcome to the first edition of The Hunt for the 12-team playoff! I will be your tour guide.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical about this, but I hope I am proven wrong. I fear that once the novelty of all of these wild conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of cavernous ready-made bowl stadiums. Can you imagine a playoff game at Neyland Stadium, even if Tennessee wasn't involved? That's a way to keep things interesting!

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

Duke, Miami, and Pitt are still undefeated. Clemson, Boston College, SMU, Louisville, and Virginia haven't lost in the conference. Miami's win over Virginia Tech is slightly better than Duke's win over Carolina. Miami gets our vote right now.

Big 12 (14):

BYU and Iowa State are undefeated. Colorado, Texas Tech, and West Virginia haven't lost in the conference. Arizona's loss in the Little Apple wasn't considered a conference game, but we know the real truth. Right now, BYU gets our vote for being 2-0 in the conference and eviscerating Kansas State.

Big Ten (18):

Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Rutgers, and Penn State are undefeated. Michigan and Iowa haven't lost in the conference. Penn State's win over Illinois might be the most impressive conference win so far, but that's not saying much. That's good enough for the vote right now.

SEC:

There will only be one by the time we get to the end of this, but right now it's rather convoluted. Texas, Alabama, Missouri, and Tennessee are all still undefeated. Texas A&M and LSU are also still undefeated in the conference. Right now, Alabama gets our vote here with the best win of the season so far.

At-Large Champion:

James Madison, UNLV, Liberty, Navy, and Army are undefeated. As of now, UNLV is the only ranked squad, so it gets the at-large.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

We still have 14 other undefeated teams that aren't already in. Not all of those can get in. Also polluting the water is the plethora of one-loss teams that also might deserve a shot.

ACC:

Duke and Pitt don't have those "big wins" that some other teams have. Clemson's loss was to Georgia on a "neutral" field. For me, they still have the best resumé of the rest of the ACC. Clemson gets my vote over Duke and Pitt for now.

Big 12 (14): 

Iowa State got a nice win in the CyHawk game in Iowa City, but should that be enough? What about an Arizona team that became the first unranked team to win in Rice-Eccles in seven years? What about K-State's thrashing of said Arizona team before getting thumped in Provo?

If we're going by that logic, K-State has the "best loss" because it lost on the road to the current Big 12 (14) Champion, BYU. Willie gets the Big 12 (14) at-large.

Big Ten (18):

Here is where some people are going to get upset. Can we let Ohio State in when its best win is over a down Michigan State team? Oregon's win over Boise is better. How about Indiana? It has solid wins, but nothing great. Rutgers beat Washington, but that's not a signature win.

One-loss Michigan lost to Texas but beat USC and Minnesota. That trumps anything Ohio State and Indiana have done to date. Michigan and Oregon have the only claims here with Penn State also in the conversation.

SEC: 

Here is where it gets messy. Texas's win in the Big House might be the second-best win of the season, so it is in. Tennessee's win in Norman is a pretty big one, too. This isn't even counting Georgia's loss to Alabama. Its win over Clemson puts it in if Clemson is in. Fair is fair.

What about Missouri? It is ranked in the top 10, but is a win at home over Boston College enough to get it in? Not in my world. What about LSU, who lost a neutral-field game to USC? Is a win over South Carolina enough to put it back into consideration?

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams is Texas, Georgia, Clemson, Kansas State, Oregon, Michigan, and Tennessee

College Football Playoff As Of October 1

Byes: Alabama (1), Penn State (7), Miami (8), BYU (17)

Other automatic qualifier: UNLV (25)

At-large teams: (2) Texas, Georgia (5), Tennessee (4), Oregon (6), Michigan (10), Clemson (15), and Kansas State (20).

Realistically, some form of UT, Bama, the other UT, and UGA will hold spots 1, 5, 6, 7

OSU, ORE, PSU will probably be 2, 8, 9

Given that scenario, i still would rather be the 5 seed playing a G5 champ then the B12 champ

As opposed to having a bye, then playing ORE or PSU

— #RunItUpJ (@TVGuy_JR) October 3, 2024

Do I think that the ACC and Big 12 (14) are getting two teams in? It's unlikely given the strength of schedule advantage that the SEC and Big 10 will hold. Strangely enough, Notre Dame will not be held to that standard. If it beats USC, it will likely take one of these spots despite losing at home to Northern Illinois and only having one other quality win.

The previous two sentences highlight what is wrong with this format (and there is a lot). We know that a lot of this will change over the next two months. Will Utah and Iowa State have a good enough strength of schedule if they don't win the Big 12 (14)?

Clemson likely has to run the table to keep its spot. Not that a loss to Georgia is a bad thing, but if it were to lose to Miami and have to go in as an at-large, wins over a down Florida State team, Pitt, and Louisville likely isn't enough.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. We should have a clearer picture emerging by the time the next article comes out at the end of October. Until then, happy arguing!

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