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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 5 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
It was another rough week in the RotoBaller Readers Group. Cjmclean17 is the only one who broke 40 points with 41. Only two more entries hit 35 points. I had an absolute disaster of a week with just 19 points. Ouch! Adding insult to injury is the fact that I got the 10-point pick right.
mr_richard takes over the group lead with 158 points. EAGLESYANKEES77 is four points back. big papi10 rounds out the top three with 153 points. IUBB1! starts the next pack with 148 points. 19ED41 is one point back with ertlt one point behind that. 50Centi and wpepper71 are tied for seventh with 145 points. 134 teams & not 1 good 1 and keepingthelittlehumansalive round out the top 10.
Thanks to a rough week for everyone, my nine points on Washington didn't hurt as much as it should have. I knew last week was going to be difficult. Week 5 looks a little bit easier on the surface. Let's get to it!
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Louisville over Notre Dame
The Irish do look different over the last couple of weeks, but that Louisville defense has been really good. It only allowed 98 rushing yards to Georgia Tech on 37 carries. Notre Dame's offensive renaissance has come via the run game.
Riley Leonard has just one passing touchdown on the season. Can Notre Dame win if it has to throw the ball more than it wants to? Until it can prove that, I'll take teams against it that are similar in talent.
(2) UNLV over Fresno State *UPDATE*
This is a messy situation, and one that will become more common. This is especially true for schools with a limit budget (or boosters with a limited budget). This is what we know as of now.
UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is out for season (NIL) despite 3-0 start 🤯
UNLV's starting QB Matthew Sluka was reportedly verbally offered $100K by an assistant coach to transfer from Holy Cross, but UNLV showed "no effort" to finalize a contract, per @PeteThamel
Sluka stepped down… pic.twitter.com/LosMslunNO
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 25, 2024
This is unfortunate for Sluka and his teammates. UNLV has a chance for a special season, and this certainly throws a wrench in it. Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams will take over at quarterback for Sluka. I am moving this game down in my confidence rankings because it's now likely that Fresno wins. Why am I not convinced? It sounds like the rest of the team is a little salty now.
UNLV WR Ricky White chimes in on the Matthew Sluka drama pic.twitter.com/JmgrCaBcOc
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 25, 2024
Again, I don't blame them. This is a terrible situation for all involved. The team is rallying around Williams. This can be a powerful motivator and UNLV could still have that magical season. I wouldn't be shocked if UNLV won this game, but I can't have as much confidence in it anymore.
My gut feeling is that the public overreacts and flips to Fresno. Arguably the best part of this UNLV team has been the defense. Sluka keeping the offense on the field helps, but who says that Williams can't do the same? If Williams can avoid turnovers and keep the offense moving in small chunks at a time, this defense is still going to shine.
(3) Alabama over Georgia
We all know how good Georgia has been for the last five years or so, but it has only beaten the Tide once in that span. Its only win against the Tide in the last nine meetings was the national championship in 2012. This game is in Tuscaloosa. Until Georgia proves that it can get past the Tide, I'm "rolling" with Alabama.
(4) Liberty over Appalachian State
This one might get moved down. Kaidon Salter is the best player on either team, but App State has played a significantly tougher schedule. Both Clemson and South Alabama trashed the Mountaineers. Liberty handled East Carolina better, but App State played it in Greenville.
I tend to think that these two teams are closer than the public thinks. App State is only +135 on the moneyline in Vegas. That suggests a closer game than the 89% of the public on Liberty. I want to take App State here, but if I do that, I'm moving it further down the list. Stay tuned. I'm struggling a bit with this one.
(5) Arkansas over Texas A&M
Conner Weigman is still listed as QB1 on the most recent depth chart, but head coach Mike Elko says that he is still a game-time decision for the game with a sprained AC joint. Those kinds of injuries can be tricky, but it's also easier for the Aggies to play it safe with Weigman thanks to the play of Marcel Reed.
The freshman has played well with Weigman out. So well that many Aggie fans are ready to move on from the often-injured and often-ineffective Weigman. If Reed starts this game and leads the Aggies to a win, we may have our first high-profile transfer portal entry of 2024.
That said, Reed playing well against Florida and Bowling Green is a little different than doing so against an Arkansas defense that has been better than advertised. I might move this down if Reed starts and changes the pick. If Weigman is in, I like the Hogs.
(6) Kansas State over Oklahoma State
After seeing what happened to K-State in Provo, I see OSU winning in the Little Apple despite the public (and Vegas) being on K-State. BYU provided the blueprint for how to fluster Avery Johnson. I do think the BYU game spiraled out of control in part because of the crowd, which OSU won't have the advantage of.
The problem is the run defense of Oklahoma State. Micah Bernard trashed the Pokes on the ground as Utah eased Isaac Wilson into the starter role. Avery Johnson has some starting experience, but the Wildcats have two really good backs, Dylan Edwards and DJ Giddens. They will run them both at the Cowboys for the win.
(7) BYU over Baylor
Sawyer Robertson is the right choice for Baylor if for no other reason than it finally gets Monaray Baldwin involved in the offense. That said, Baylor couldn't even abuse that Colorado defense. BYU locked down a good Kansas State team. This is an opportunistic defense that can make offenses spiral out of control in a matter of minutes. Robertson can't handle that yet.
(8) Oklahoma over Auburn
ICYMI:
Jackson Arnold won’t start for Oklahoma next week. The Sooners have made the change to Michael Hawkins Jr.— cfb_guy (@cfb_guy1) September 24, 2024
I support this decision. Hawkins looked really good against a strong Tennessee defense. He'll have some issues as all freshmen do, but he gives us the best chance to win this game. Auburn holds no advantage at QB since Hunter Brown is also a freshman. I give a big advantage to the Oklahoma defense.
Auburn has the better run game, but that is also the strength of the Oklahoma defense. Even Tennessee struggled to get traction in the run game for much of the night last week. I do expect a close game, but the dynamic of Hawkins in the lineup is going to reap immediate rewards.
(9) Boise State over Washington State
Washington State has looked pretty good for a team without a conference home. The bad news for the Cougs is that the NCAA folks will treat them as a Notre Dame independent team instead of a "conference champion." What that does is essentially turn this game into a playoff game.
Washington State needs this feather. Boise could lose and still be the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. The Cougars would likely need to win out and hope the committee lets them in. This is the byproduct of the last great moronic decision of the former Pac-12.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is having a year incase anyone didn’t notice#BoiseState #Heisman pic.twitter.com/kZWBfFeqve
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) September 22, 2024
For that reason, part of me thinks Washington State will come out and win this game. Then I remembered that Ashton Jeanty plays for Boise and Boise wants him in New York at the Heisman Trophy ceremony for obvious reasons. Wazzu has allowed nearly five yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns in four games. Jeanty will make the difference for Boise.
(10) Duke over North Carolina
North Carolina allowed 53 first-half points to James Madison. Maalik Murphy could have the game of his life in this one...
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