Late-Round Lotto Tickets - Fantasy Football Draft Picks That Could Pay Off Big in 2024

September 3, 2024

Andersen's five deeper 2024 fantasy football draft sleepers that could be breakout performers. These are his later-round lotto tickets to target in drafts.

Every fantasy football manager will tell you how much they love to select "their guy" in the first round of fantasy drafts. It's rewarding and exciting to know that you can watch one of your most-hyped players rack up major production in your starting lineup for the full season.

However, it feels even better to land a diamond in the rough with one of your late-round draft picks. Not only did you do your homework and research the draft trends, but you were able to select a sleeper before any of your league-mates caught on. Now, you have a late-round player with league-winning upside.

Here are five late-round picks with an ADP of at least 120 who could pay off big time down the stretch. These are extraordinary value picks who could help you win your fantasy football leagues in 2024.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills

The Bills selected Davis with their fourth-round pick in this year's NFL Draft. Buffalo is a terrific landing spot for Davis as he will have an opportunity to earn meaningful touches right away, especially in short-yardage situations.

Davis has excelled everywhere he's been, including collegiate stops at Temple, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. He's no stranger to being a workhorse running back, tallying 1,129 rushing yards, 323 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns as recently as 2023. He possesses solid burst and athleticism, as well as excellent vision when identifying gaps at the line of scrimmage.

The Bills have James Cook atop their backfield, but he has shown deficiencies in short-yardage situations and hasn't shown that he's ready to be an every-down back. It's easy to envision a world in which Cook operates as the Bills' starter, but Davis rotates often, especially when the Bills need a physical player to secure a few yards for the first down or touchdown.

If Davis draws a high volume of goal-line work, he should add several touchdowns to his tally as a rookie. His nose for the end zone figures to make up for his subpar skills in the passing game.

Davis and Cook complement each other very well. While the latter is the top running back in Buffalo, the former is a must-target value pick at his current ADP of 174 (RB55 overall). Davis is also a top handcuff given his ability to handle 15 to 20 touches per game if Cook gets hurt.

very easy to fall in like with Ray Davis pic.twitter.com/j5BefQ40Y0

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 19, 2024

Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints

Hill is coming off one of his best fantasy seasons ever and is expected to have an even bigger, more versatile role on offense in 2024. So why are the majority of fantasy managers casually fading him?

It's a question I'm still dumbfounded trying to answer, but all that I really care about is the fact that he's a tremendous value in drafts. Expected to get involved as a passer, runner, and receiver, Hill provides tremendous value at the tight end position with his current ADP of 146 (TE16 overall).

If formats listed him as a quarterback or running back, we could be singing a different tune. However, that's not the case. If you can get quarterback, running back, and wide receiver production at the tight end slot in your lineup, you do it.

And sure, the tight end position is uniquely deep this year, but that doesn't mean you can justify avoiding Hill, who has a real shot at touching the ball more than 10 to 12 times per game in 2024.

Plus, the Saints' coaching staff has been very outspoken about Hill's versatility and their willingness to possibly use him at five different positions this year.

Hill is going to get on the field, and he's repeatedly shown that he can deliver big production when the ball is in his hands. In an offense that is looking for a third playmaker behind Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, there's a real chance for Hill to excel. Managers should pursue him as a premier bench tight end and potential mid-season trade chip. Time is running out to take advantage of his insane value.

Taysom Hill In 1 Game:

-Returned 3 Kickoffs
-Recovered a Fumble
-Played Quarterback
-Played Tight End
-Threw a Touchdown Pass
-Ran for a Touchdown
-203 All Purpose Yards

That’s not normal 😂 pic.twitter.com/8ndcXIE0jC

— Boot Krewe Media (@BootKreweMedia) April 5, 2023

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

A healthy Chubb is easily a top-five running back in fantasy football. The problem, however, is that Chubb is recovering from a gruesome knee injury that included tears to his ACL and MCL.

We can loosely compare Chubb's return to New York Jets running back Breece Hall, who came back from an ACL tear early last year. There was initial skepticism about Hall's availability for Week 1, but he recovered ahead of schedule and played in the season opener, albeit on a play count.

Hall was on a reduced workload for the first four games last year before the Jets let him loose in Week 5 when he ultimately tallied 22 rushes, three receptions, and nearly 200 scrimmage yards. When Chubb does return (Cleveland placed him on the PUP list, so that'll be Week 5 at the earliest), fantasy managers should expect him to have a reduced role for a few weeks.

Chubb is older than Hall, has less receiving upside, is coming off a more severe injury, and will miss at least four games, so it's not a perfect comparison. Chubb is not headed for the overall RB2 title that Hall claimed in 2023.

Nevertheless, a top-18 running back finish is well within range for Chubb if he returns to the field around Week 5 or 6. Cleveland is expected to have a respectable offense this year and will funnel the vast majority of its carries through Chubb as soon as he shows the team that he's healthy enough to handle such a workload.

Chubb has an ADP of 122, making him the 41st running back off the board in fantasy drafts.

This is #Browns RB Nick Chubb squatting 540+ pounds—just 8 months after undergoing multiple significant knee surgeries.

Insanity.pic.twitter.com/JlWnad2Wdm

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 15, 2024

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

Coleman has a clear path to possessing fantasy relevance right away this season. The Bills notably lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis during the offseason. Their efforts to replace those two contributors included nothing more than signing Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.

Samuel and Hollins are proven veteran players, but neither is capable of handling No. 1 receiver duties. Coleman, on the other hand, might just be up for the task. While advanced metrics reflect an inability to get separation from defenders, he consistently got a step ahead of cornerbacks during training camp and the preseason, leaving them in his dust while he made the catch and subsequently broke off a big play.

If Coleman can do this against the NFL's starting cornerbacks, he'll quickly earn Josh Allen's trust, rack up yardage, and get red zone opportunities. Samuel, Hollins, and even Khalil Shakir likely can't say the same. All of those factors equate to plenty of success in fantasy football for Coleman this year.

Time and time again, we hear that we should draft high-volume players in good offenses. Coleman is a prime example of such a player. He's suiting up for one of the most exciting offenses in football and is due to command at least a handful of targets per game.

With an ADP of 121, Coleman is a value selection who could work his way into your fantasy lineup within the first few weeks of the season.

Keon Coleman reminds me a little of a young D-Hop. Despite what the separation metrics say, he’s always open. Dane Brugler summed it up perfectly in his draft guide: “Coleman wears opposing DBs like a backpack.” pic.twitter.com/PsOg2rQe3s

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) August 4, 2024

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins

Wright may be a tough sell for fantasy managers who want instant production out of the running back position. However, patience is a virtue, and managers who give Wright a little bit of time might be rewarded in a huge way.

Historically, managers have felt compelled to get a team's No. 2 running back (also known as a "handcuff") so that they can benefit in case the starter goes down. That logic can be manipulated a little bit in Miami where the Dolphins could realistically have two fantasy-relevant running backs in De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert.

There were nine games in which both Achane and Mostert played last year. In five of those nine games, they both finished as top-36 running backs. More often than not, Miami proved that it was capable of supporting fantasy-relevant performances from both of its running backs in the same game.

Wright is a similar player to Achane and Mostert in the sense that speed is the name of his game. Based on what we saw from him this preseason, he's capable of making starting-caliber defenses look silly. All he needs is an opportunity.

In order to get such an opportunity, he'd likely need one of Achane or Mostert to get hurt. Those two backs missed a combined eight games last year, and given the general state of injuries around the NFL, it's not far-fetched to imagine that Achane or Mostert will miss time in 2024. If they do, Wright will step up and assume his role in an offense that can support two fantasy-relevant running back performances at the same time.

Therefore, Wright is an intriguing name in fantasy drafts. He won't have an immediate impact, so managers will need to be comfortable leaving him on the bench for a few weeks, perhaps watching him put up zero or just a few points.

Over the course of the season, though, he'll have plenty of opportunities to get on the field — and when he does, he'll use his speed to rack up yardage and reward those patient fantasy managers in a huge way.

The best part about Jaylen Wright is that he’s the handcuff to not one, but TWO RBs

The Dolphins supported two top-10 running backs on a points per game basis in 2023 in De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert

Talk about a valuable handcuff! 😮‍💨

📹 @finscentralpic.twitter.com/5gNyGU9rGD

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 29, 2024

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