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Nick Chubb is a fantasy football sleeper for 2024 drafts. Target him as a draft value pick and fantasy football sleeper in the middle-to-late rounds of drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~115 Overall
TARGET ROUND: Draft ~Round 9-11
ANALYSIS: Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (knee) has been the best pure runner in the league over the last six seasons. He has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry every year he has been in the league, and he finished first in yards after contact per attempt in 2018, 2019, and 2020 (min. 150 carries), which is an efficiency metric that tells how many yards a running back gets beyond what the offensive line blocks for. He finished second in 2021 and 2022. Plain and simple, Chubb is the best pound-for-pound runner in football.
He was on his way to another stellar season when it was derailed by a devastating knee injury in Week 2. Chubb tore the MCL in his left knee, which had already been repaired once from a similar injury in his second season at Georgia (torn MCL, PCL, and LCL), as well as his ACL and meniscus. It was a gruesome injury, but fortunately not career-threatening as originally feared. In his first press conference since the injury, Chubb told the media that "I'm right where I need to be" and that "my goal is to be back out there," but it appears increasingly likely that he will not be ready for the start of the season as he did not give a timeline for his return.
While he has been spotted sprinting and doing light agility work at Brown's training camp, general manager Andrew Berry said recently that Chubb has "a little way to go." Given his injury, this should come as no surprise. Chubb was placed on the active/PUP list to start training camp, and it appears he will remain there longer.
In essentially one and a half games in 2023, Chubb had picked up right where he left off the prior season with 170 yards and 6.1 YPC. Hopefully, Chubb can get back to his old form in 2024. If you're willing to take that chance, and can also brace for an injury stash, then Chubb can end up being a draft value. Even if he misses a few games, but returns to being a top RB, he will return much greater value than his draft day cost.
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