X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Finding Running Back Breakouts for Fantasy Football: Vacated Red-Zone Touches

Rico Dowdle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Andrew looks at running back (RB) fantasy football sleepers and breakouts by analyzing vacated red-zone touches. Which fantasy running backs will break out in 2024?

Ask any fantasy football player: What's the fastest way to rack up points?

For running backs, getting the high-value touches inside the red zone (or, even better, inside the 5-yard line) leads to easy scores. Touchdowns lead to quick fantasy points. It's not rocket science, nor a new advanced metric to try and predict the fantasy football future.

Vacated red-zone touches are a metric that helps us determine which running backs will receive those precious opportunities. Teams move on from their starter or goal-line running back, opening the door for new faces to plunge into paydirt.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

Carries Inside the 20 Carries Inside the 10 Carries Inside the 5 Targets Inside the 20 Targets Inside the 10
Joe Mixon 56 38 18 13 6

It's been debated ad nauseam this summer: Zack Moss or Chase Brown? Which Cincinnati running back will be the best fantasy asset?

Brown has been my preferred option this offseason due to his game-breaking speed and abilities in the passing game. The reports of Brown taking the majority of first-team reps during training camp only confirmed my beliefs.

But that doesn't mean Moss won't have a role. His bruising, plodding running style is optimal around the goal line. There are a lot of vacated, valuable touches in the red zone. Mixon's 56 carries inside the 20 was the third-highest total in the NFL. It's the same story for attempts inside the five. He led the league in rushes inside the 10-yard line.

All nine of Mixon's rushing touchdowns came within the red zone. Most of those short-yardage touches should go Moss' way. The question is whether the former Colt has enough rushing talent to finish those runs. He's the Cincinnati running back to target in non-PPR formats.

 

Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Carries Inside the 20 Carries Inside the 10 Carries Inside the 5 Targets Inside the 20 Targets Inside the 10
Tony Pollard 60 30 13 12 2

Tony Pollard only trailed Christian McCaffrey (63) in carries inside the 20. Unfortunately, the rushing touchdown total (six) did not correlate. Ezekiel Elliott tallied at least five rushing touchdowns from inside the five in his final four seasons in Dallas, including nine in two of those campaigns.

Drafting a running back attached to an elite offense (as long as CeeDee Lamb shows up to camp) is a smart strategy. The Cowboys were the highest-scoring team in the league a year ago and top five in total yards. There will be ample opportunities in the red zone.

Training-camp reports tell us that Rico Dowdle will have a significant role in this offense. Unfortunately for his value, Elliott will likely be the goal-line back. Elliott averaged 3.5 yards per carry and logged one breakaway run in New England last season. He's not the same back as he was during his previous stint in Dallas, but he can fall into the end zone.

Dowdle is not an elite running back, either, but the argument can be made that he's currently more talented than his soon-to-be 29-year-old counterpart. Both can be found in the ninth round or later.

 

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

Carries Inside the 20 Carries Inside the 10 Carries Inside the 5 Targets Inside the 20 Targets Inside the 10
Latavius Murray 20 17 11 3 2

This isn't the same situation as other backfields in this article. James Cook remains the leader of the Buffalo backfield, but will he be given the goal-line touches he lacked in 2023?

Cook was relied upon the entire field until the Bills reached the 10-yard line. 33-year-old Latavius Murray logged 17 carries inside the 10, one fewer than Cook. Inside the five, the tables turned more in Murray's favor (11 to four). Cook registered just two rushing touchdowns, while Murray tallied four on 79 carries.

Josh Allen was another vulture near the goal line. He led the Bills in carries inside the 20, 10, and five. Plus, he more than doubled his rushing touchdowns from a year ago. Allen had fewer rushing attempts in 2023 than in previous seasons, so it's reasonable to assume his touchdown total could revert to his career average.

Rookie Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson are battling for the primary backup job. Davis is taking advantage of his counterpart missing practice time.

If Cook isn't gifted the touches near the end zone and Allen risks injury less often, Davis could be the guy who takes the mantle. He's a physical runner, possesses excellent vision, and scored 14 times in his senior season at Kentucky. It's a lot of what-ifs, but Davis is worth a high-upside swing in the final rounds of fantasy football drafts, especially in non-PPR formats.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF