Finding Running Back Breakouts for Fantasy Football: Vacated Red-Zone Touches

Andrew looks at running back (RB) fantasy football sleepers and breakouts by analyzing vacated red-zone touches. Which fantasy running backs will break out in 2024?

Ask any fantasy football player: What's the fastest way to rack up points?

For running backs, getting the high-value touches inside the red zone (or, even better, inside the 5-yard line) leads to easy scores. Touchdowns lead to quick fantasy points. It's not rocket science, nor a new advanced metric to try and predict the fantasy football future.

Vacated red-zone touches are a metric that helps us determine which running backs will receive those precious opportunities. Teams move on from their starter or goal-line running back, opening the door for new faces to plunge into paydirt.

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Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

It's been debated ad nauseam this summer: Zack Moss or Chase Brown? Which Cincinnati running back will be the best fantasy asset?

Brown has been my preferred option this offseason due to his game-breaking speed and abilities in the passing game. The reports of Brown taking the majority of first-team reps during training camp only confirmed my beliefs.

But that doesn't mean Moss won't have a role. His bruising, plodding running style is optimal around the goal line. There are a lot of vacated, valuable touches in the red zone. Mixon's 56 carries inside the 20 was the third-highest total in the NFL. It's the same story for attempts inside the five. He led the league in rushes inside the 10-yard line.

Another Joe Mixon first half TD

📺: #CINvsJAX on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/JZL7uE8ZOm pic.twitter.com/LYeO88Rh6v

— NFL (@NFL) December 5, 2023

All nine of Mixon's rushing touchdowns came within the red zone. Most of those short-yardage touches should go Moss' way. The question is whether the former Colt has enough rushing talent to finish those runs. He's the Cincinnati running back to target in non-PPR formats.

Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard only trailed Christian McCaffrey (63) in carries inside the 20. Unfortunately, the rushing touchdown total (six) did not correlate. Ezekiel Elliott tallied at least five rushing touchdowns from inside the five in his final four seasons in Dallas, including nine in two of those campaigns.

Drafting a running back attached to an elite offense (as long as CeeDee Lamb shows up to camp) is a smart strategy. The Cowboys were the highest-scoring team in the league a year ago and top five in total yards. There will be ample opportunities in the red zone.

Training-camp reports tell us that Rico Dowdle will have a significant role in this offense. Unfortunately for his value, Elliott will likely be the goal-line back. Elliott averaged 3.5 yards per carry and logged one breakaway run in New England last season. He's not the same back as he was during his previous stint in Dallas, but he can fall into the end zone.

Dowdle is not an elite running back, either, but the argument can be made that he's currently more talented than his soon-to-be 29-year-old counterpart. Both can be found in the ninth round or later.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

This isn't the same situation as other backfields in this article. James Cook remains the leader of the Buffalo backfield, but will he be given the goal-line touches he lacked in 2023?

Cook was relied upon the entire field until the Bills reached the 10-yard line. 33-year-old Latavius Murray logged 17 carries inside the 10, one fewer than Cook. Inside the five, the tables turned more in Murray's favor (11 to four). Cook registered just two rushing touchdowns, while Murray tallied four on 79 carries.

Josh Allen was another vulture near the goal line. He led the Bills in carries inside the 20, 10, and five. Plus, he more than doubled his rushing touchdowns from a year ago. Allen had fewer rushing attempts in 2023 than in previous seasons, so it's reasonable to assume his touchdown total could revert to his career average.

Rookie Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson are battling for the primary backup job. Davis is taking advantage of his counterpart missing practice time.

Buffalo Bills rookie RB Ray Davis avoided five tackles and created 40 rushing yards after contact in his second preseason game, per @TruMediaSports pic.twitter.com/HegUHaD8ch

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 18, 2024

If Cook isn't gifted the touches near the end zone and Allen risks injury less often, Davis could be the guy who takes the mantle. He's a physical runner, possesses excellent vision, and scored 14 times in his senior season at Kentucky. It's a lot of what-ifs, but Davis is worth a high-upside swing in the final rounds of fantasy football drafts, especially in non-PPR formats.

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