Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Wells Fargo Championship

May 8, 2024

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at the Quail Hollow Club. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Wells Fargo Championship outright betting card.

The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 20.7% hit rate) for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 38.3%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. Still, suppose you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process. In that case, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship!

2024 Wells Fargo Betting Card

Wyndham Clark (18-1)

The victory that started an incredible year for @Wyndham_Clark.

With his mom watching down on him, he secured his first win on TOUR last year @WellsFargoGolf ❤️#TOURVault pic.twitter.com/I9p0vO39ay

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 8, 2024

If Wyndham Clark is not going to get proper respect at a golf course he lapped the field by four just 12 months ago, it's difficult to forecast what it will take for books to start treating him like the third best player on the planet.

Despite three wins over his last 20 starts (at LACC, Pebble Beach, and Quail Hollow nonetheless), two runner-ups to Scottie Scheffler at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, and an additional two third-place finishes both in his last start at Harbour Town and in last year's TOUR Championship, Clark still sits a clear tier behind Rory and Xander according to the bookmakers. I personally ran to the window to grab a piece at 18-1 after it was announced that Ludvig Aberg would be sitting out in Charlotte due to a knee issue, but even with Ludvig in attendance, I had a lot of interest in the ever-undervalued Clark.

It's difficult to find a better course fit for the Oregon product than this week either -- as the combination of Quail Hollow's distance-intensive, 7,600-yard layout, combined with recent rains that have softened up the fairways mean that his field-leading marks in both Ball Speed and Distance to Apex will make Wyndham's driver a weapon around the array of long Par 4s and 5s on this routing.

Wyndham also ranks second in my putting modeling when isolating for green complexes with similar speed and agronomy to Quail, and since the start of 2024, the long-iron game has become a true weapon for our 2023 U.S. Open Champion. Clark ranks in the 90th percentile for GIR % on approaches over 200 yards, and number one on the PGA Tour in Good Shot Percentage.

For whatever reason, books continue to price the World No. 3 as an afterthought in these marquee fields. I'm more than happy to endorse the 16/18-1s still available on market, and barring an unmitigated disaster over the next four days, the 28s currently posted in next week's future markets are worthy of strong consideration as well.

Sahith Theegala (33-1)

Sahith Theegala with an early birdie at the 1st to get 1 shot back of the leaders at the #RBCHeritage🔥pic.twitter.com/2v8dSpCwof

— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) April 20, 2024

If Ludvig Aberg isn't destined to continue Quail Hollow's legacy of crowning the PGA Tour's future stars, I can think of no better candidate to take his place than Sahith Theegala. We've been banging this drum at Flag Hunting for most of this 2024 season, and this week, fresh off of a runner-up finish to the absentee Scottie Scheffler, I'm happy to take another shot at calling this kid's inevitable breakthrough.

It almost defies belief how quickly Sahith has turned a blatant deficiency in his game into one of his more bankable strengths -- as one year after ranking 134th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Theegala now sits as the sixth best driver of the ball in this star-studded field over his last 36 rounds. For reference, this sample extends back to Round 1 of the Sentry Tournament of Champions this past January, and currently puts him right in between the likes of Wyndham Clark and Cameron Young off of the tee.

Combine this stunning development with the upside we've long identified in the rest of his game, and it becomes clear just how high the ceiling could be for this elite-driving version of Sahith Theegala:

• Leads this field in SG: Putting on Comparable Green Complexes
• Gained an average of 2.5 strokes putting per tournament over his last 20 starts (+2.9 over his last five)
• Gained at least three strokes on Approach in four of his last six PGA starts
• Third in this field in Good Shot % and Eight in Proximity from >200 yards (the last 12 months)
• Top 25 on Tour in SG: Around the Greens over the entire 2022-23 season

From Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, to Muirfield Village, Harbour Town, and Torrey Pines, Theegala has proven time and time again that his game is well suited for the biggest and brightest stages the PGA Tour has to offer. My numbers have him rated far above his current 33-1 price tag, and unless something drastic were to change in his underlying stats, this won't be the last time I make this case in a big-time event.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Tony Finau (35-1)

Rough news: Tony Finau shot 2-over 72 today at the Houston Open.

Better news: He's just 2 shots off the lead, T9 thanks to this chip-in birdie at 16.pic.twitter.com/wIuEPmEFgQ

— Sean Walker (@ActuallyDSW) March 31, 2024

Speaking of trending off-the-tee breakthroughs, a recent change in equipment has seemingly put Tony Finau back amongst the ranks of the PGA Tour's elite drivers. Since changing to the GT version of his Mitsubishi Diamana driver shaft in March's Houston Open, Finau has gained a whopping 11.7 shots off of the tee in 12 subsequent rounds. He ranked 2nd and 3rd in Total Driving at the two more driver-intensive courses in that time (Memorial Park and Augusta National), and ranks 6th in this field in Driving Distance thus far in 2024.

Quail Hollow's collection of 480+ yard par fours should be a perfect venue for Tony to keep that driving rhythm going, and when you combine this recent driving form with one of the most compelling approach profiles in this field (1st in Long Iron Proximity, 2nd in SG/Shot, 4th in Good Shot Percentage), and a top 20 short game rating, and Finau becomes one of the week's top commodities in terms of expected tee-to-green performance.

His place as the 12th-15th name on odds boards does not fully encompass these recent ball-striking gains, and if we can truly count on him as an elite all-around driver of the ball, I think Tony isn't far away from taking back his place on the mantle of top names to watch at the Tour's most demanding venues. My numbers hold his in as high regard as anyone in this field after the top three, and I'm happy to take my shot at prices bordering on 40-1.

Viktor Hovland (50-1)

Viktor Hovland grabs a share of the lead with his fourth birdie of the day @TheGenesisInv. pic.twitter.com/ciYx4XTiXz

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 15, 2024

We end this week's pre-tournament betting card with a name for which I have very little to say about his lead-in form. Frankly, Viktor Hovland has been abysmal to start the 2024 season, and as the weeks go by and the disappointments mount, it becomes more and more difficult to write off these recent struggles as a fluke.

I will fully concede that there is a universe where we look back on this bet and laugh, but everybody has their price. For me, Viktor Hovland at 50-1 is where I draw the line -- particularly at a golf course as well suited to his skillset as Quail Hollow.

7,600 yards. Driving. Long-iron play. Difficult scoring conditions. If that's not a recipe for a Viktor Hovland resurgence, I'm not sure what is. Despite his horrid results over the last four months, Hovland still ranks out as a top 15 driver of the ball in this field. He ranks second in my long-term proximity model, and three years ago, Viktor put together the second best putting week of his season in a third-place finish around Quail Hollow.

Maybe the best argument that can be made for Hovland is the nearly full month off he's had after an embarrassing second round 81 at Augusta National. As someone who's watched Viktor's career unfold with great interest, that Friday afternoon felt as close to rock-bottom as it could possibly get. I like the fact that he took Harbour Town off, and if you know anything about Viktor, it's that he's putting in the work to get things right. If by chance he has stumbled on the correct formula over the last few weeks, his ascension back to the top of the game could come without warning.

In-Tournament Strategy

With these four names on the card, we're still left with ~20% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.

• For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside the holes he still has left to play. Fortunately for us, Quail Hollow makes a pretty clear distinction between birdie opportunities and holes where you can lap the field by treading water.
• Only five holes at Quail Hollow historically play under par, and once again, the scorecard tells us no tales in regards to which ones meet those criteria. The three Par 5’s (5,10, and 15), all carry birdie or better rates over 33%, and two short Par 4’s (8 and 14) play a combined (0.43) under par historically - with birdie or better rates of 27 and 35% respectively.
• Outside of those five holes, there aren’t a ton of scoring opportunities to look forward to around Quail, as the remaining 13 holes play a combined 2.15 shots over par and exactly zero of them feature birdie rates over 13%.
• In particular, the holes to really be feared are 1, 6, 11, 16, 17, and 18. All of which carry a stroke average of at least 0.2 shots above par, with bogey or worse rates over 25%. That doesn’t even include holes like 3, 9, 12, and 13, with bogey or worse rates over 20% and a mean stroke average of +0.15.
• Simply put, there aren’t exactly many breather holes around Quail Hollow this week. Either you’re stepping up to a potential eagle opportunity at one of the Par 5’s or drivable Par 4s, or you’re looking to hold on for dear life in a sea of 480-yard Par 4's and Par 3's
• I believe Par 5 scoring and Bogey Avoidance are of equal importance this week, as although there are only 3 Par 5’s on the course, they represent such important scoring opportunities over the course of the round. Taking advantage of the "gimmes" available to you will be imperative, as anyone forced to make up ground elsewhere is in for some tough sledding.
• And finally, no Quail Hollow analysis would be complete without discussing the "Green Mile." A three-hole stretch from 16-18 that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult finishes on the PGA Tour. Combined, the three holes play to a stroke average of +0.8, and for those looking to add players in the live market, be sure to proceed with extreme caution if your intended target hasn't reached the 16th tee. Many dreams have been dashed within those 1200 yards.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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