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Max Scherzer has been a fantasy asset for nearly a decade and a half. After making his bones as a workhorse starter in his first few years, he unlocked another gear in 2013, earning the first of his three Cy Young Awards. Thus began a nine-year stretch where the righty dominated the league and made it to eight straight All-Star games (there was no game in 2020).
Leaving out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Scherzer averaged 208.1 innings pitched and 262 strikeouts per season over that period. His ERA in each year ended under 3.00 and his yearly WHIP eclipsed 1.00 only twice. Perhaps the heavy usage has taken a toll on Scherzer in recent seasons, as injuries have chewed into his productivity over the last two years.
After signing with the Mets in 2022, oblique injuries held him to 145.1 IP, but he still finished with 173 strikeouts to go with a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. In July 2023, he was traded to Texas, where he helped the playoff-bound Rangers down the stretch before the injury bug bit again in September, limiting Scherzer to just three postseason appearances. In December, the 39-year-old had back surgery and he opened the 2024 season on the injured list.
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Max Scherzer Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball
After undergoing surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back, Scherzer was shut down from offseason workouts. He did report to camp with pitchers and catchers in February but returned home soon thereafter to continue his rehabilitation process. In mid-March, he was cleared to resume baseball activities.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that Scherzer threw a 55-pitch bullpen session on April 1. It was his third session since he resumed throwing last week, leaving him with four more before he faces live hitters. The former ace compared his current status to being in early February, gearing up for spring training, echoing his feelings that followed his first bullpen session last week, as reported by Shawn McFarland.
Max Scherzer threw a bullpen on Tuesday. He said his arm is feeling good, described this period as “early February” for him if he didn’t have the rehab.
Said there’s still hurdles to jump through, but said he respects the process of the rehab he’s going through.
— Shawn McFarland (@McFarland_Shawn) March 28, 2024
Scherzer was placed on the injured list when the Rangers' season officially started on March 28. Initial expectations were that he would miss at least the first two months of the season, so it is worth noting that he was placed on the 15-day IL and not the 60-day, suggesting that a return in May is a possibility.
Max Scherzer Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Had the Rangers opted to place Scherzer on the 60-day IL, the soonest we would see him take the mound is May 28. The 15-day designation leaves the door open for an earlier return, which, using Scherzer's timeline comparison, could come in the middle of May. Fantasy managers should view this as a best-case scenario and not the most likely outcome given the pitcher's intent thus far to exercise patience through his rehab process.
Aside from wondering when he will return, there is also the question of what can be expected from Scherzer. Nagging injuries cost him innings in his season and a half with the Mets. Before being traded to Texas last year, Scherzer averaged 5.2 IP in his 19 starts with New York and had a 4.01 ERA. The change in scenery prompted a short bounceback and he went 4-2 in eight starts for the Rangers with a 3.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. A muscle strain in his shoulder cost him the final weeks of the regular season and most of the Rangers' playoff run. Scherzer's one World Series appearance was cut short after 3.0 IP due to back tightness.
Scherzer showed last year that for as long as he is healthy, he can still be effective. He also showed that he might be at the stage of his career where his body is going to regularly betray him. Once he is ready to play, he should still provide an above-average strikeout rate and help suppress ratios. In leagues with IL slots, he is worth a stash so long as interested managers keep in mind the injury risk and possibility of age-related regression and have a backup plan if things go south.
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