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Analysis of five first base fantasy baseball targets to draft in the mid rounds. Potential 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued 1B to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in the MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players who can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round first base options for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2024 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2024 Draft Kit.
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Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas had a tail of two seasons in his 2023 rookie season. The lefty-swinger hit just .225 with nine home runs and a .727 OPS across 77 first-half games before erupting for a .317 BA alongside 15 HR and a 1.034 OPS across just 54 games following the All-Star break. Overall, he walked at a quality 13.9% clip and his .371 xwOBA not only supported his .367 wOBA but ranked in the league's 92nd percentile. Additionally, he ranked in the 79th percentile or better in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Add in an 85th percentile ranking in chase rate and a 93rd in walk rate, and you're cooking with gas.
He's currently the 10th first baseman being taken off the board with an ADP of 105.66. However, he is also being drafted after the likes of Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Walker, and Spencer Steer. While he offers zero speed, Casas' patience and power could very well help carry him over those players by the season's end. His ADP is just fine, and his big second half is supported by pristine underlying data across the board.
-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson had a rough debut in 2022, having been demoted to Triple-A for over a month and ending the season with a BA barely above the Mendoza Line. However, 2023 showed several signs of improvement. Year-over-year from 2022 to 2023, the righty increased his Barrel% from 8.4% to 14.1% (89th percentile), average EV went from 90.5 to 91.8 (87th percentile), and Hard Hit% went from 41.4% to 50.5% (94th percentile). There were noticeable in-season improvements as well.
Namely, Tork's HR/FB% jumped from 10.8% in the first half to 20.0% in the second half, finishing with seven more HR in the second half in 60 fewer ABs, boosting SLG and ISO along the way. WOBA and wRC+ spiked from .308 to .347 and 95 to 121, respectively. With a decent Contact% of 77.6% and BB% of 9.8%, there are numerous reasons to think the former No. 1 overall pick is primed to take another step forward in 2024. RotoBaller has the youngster ranked 103 overall, much higher than his NFBC ADP of 119. FGDC projections also show modest improvements, with a .242-30-90-83-3 line, a .339 WOBA, and 116 wRC+, but don't be surprised if you see closer to 35 HR and 100 RBI.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor has not played more than 122 games in a season since debuting in 2019. If he can stay healthy for an entire season, he could end up with some prolific stats. In 2023, he slashed .308/.489/.842 with 17 HR, 97 RBI, 52 R, and 10 SB in just 122 games. In 2022, however, he ended with a .256 average in nearly the same number of games (121). So, which Naylor can we expect in 2024? Well, in 2021 and 2022 combined, Naylor hit just .181 against LHP (35-for-193), but last season he hit .299 (41-for-137) against them. The much higher overall BA this past season is correlated to his newfound success against LHP. The 26-year-old could have figured something out in his swing and looking deeper. It shows he's lowered his ground ball rate while increasing his launch angle in each of the last five seasons, resulting in more line drives and fly balls.
Naylor also lowered his K% to a career-low 13.7% in 2023. If the change in swing mechanics helps him hit LHP, then all the Guardians need to figure out is how to keep him healthy, and they might have the solution. Naylor played 91 games at 1B in 2023. Still, the Guardians' top-rated prospect, first baseman Kyle Manzardo, could make the Opening Day roster in 2024 (or shortly after that), giving Naylor the full-time DH role and hopefully keeping him in the lineup for the entire season. That said, he is reasonably priced in drafts, with a current NFBC ADP of 134, while RotoBaller has him ranked just ahead of that at 129. Expected to hit cleanup, ATC has the 26-year-old projected for .278-21-86-64-8 with a .339 WOBA and 118 wRC+. If he hits his ceiling, he could return some value, but he also offers a safe floor for managers who miss out on some of the more significant 1B bats higher in the draft.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand earned his call-up after crushing 52 long balls over a year and a half in the minors. He didn't disappoint the Reds by batting .270 with 13 HR, a 48.4% hard-hit rate, and .476 xSLG, putting him in the top 30 of qualified hitters in the expected slugging percentage. He can flat-out rake and becomes even more appealing playing half his games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Is that enough for the Reds to give CES everyday playing time? Noelvi Marte was suspended 80 games for PEDs, opening up more playing time for CES. Before the suspension, the big righty had to share 1B and DH with switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan India, who has been shopped around again this offseason.
Candelario will handle third base duties, while Encarncion-Strand will handle first base with Marte suspended. Playing time may be frustrating when Marte returns from suspension. However, by July, there's a high probability that multiple players will be either injured, traded, or slumping. Most importantly, he controls his destiny, meaning that if he produces when given the chance, they'll have to insert him into the lineup daily. ATC projects Encarncion-Strand to slash .266/.325/.491 with 26 home runs over 122 games. CES has an NFBC ADP of 132, slightly later than RotoBaller's overall ranking of 117. Expect Encarncion-Strand's ADP to rise with the Marte suspension, and he is excellent mid-round value heading into 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.
-- Richard Dellano - RotoBaller
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz had a career 2023 season, slashing .330/.410/.522 with 22 home runs, 95 runs scored, and 78 RBI in 600 plate appearances. He posted a career-high in plate appearances, batting average, and HR. He also hit the ball even harder than usual, with an average exit velocity of 93.4 MPH, which led to excellent expected stats to back up his peripherals. While Diaz's approach to the plate results in high batting averages, the one thing preventing him from translating his hard-hit rates into more HR is his launch angle.
Diaz has never exceeded a 10-degree average launch angle for a season, and his 2023 mark finished at 5.7 degrees. Despite this, he still eclipsed 20 HR while benefitting from hitting atop a strong lineup. Diaz is currently being drafted at about pick 133 overall, making him the 13th 1B off the board. This seems like fair value considering that Diaz can make up for a lack of elite power with a high average and strong R+RBI.
-- Connelly Doan - RotoBaller
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