Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2024 WM Phoenix Open

Powered by a phenomenal third-round 60, Wyndham Clark was declared the winner after 54 holes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am due to scary weather conditions that made the course unplayable. RotoBaller PGA staffers Spencer Aguiar and Ian McNeill both tipped Clark last week (congrats boys!) and his victory was yet another for a golfer with triple-digit outright odds in 2024.

While Clark's Saturday performance was certainly exciting, this "Signature Event" sure felt stale, though in fairness, a Sunday battle might have changed that takeaway. If any event can wake up what's been a sleepy season to this point, it's this week's WM Phoenix Open, which is routinely one of the best tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

2024 WM Phoenix Open

Let's be honest, the first month of the PGA Tour season has left a lot to be desired for golf fans. Thank goodness, the WM Phoenix Open is next up on the docket! I think it's fair to label the WM Phoenix Open one of the best events of the year and certainly one of the most fun outings on the schedule.

Sure, the often rowdy, party-like atmosphere of the WMPO isn't for everyone, but it has given this tournament a unique identity. That popularity is aided not only by the infamous Par-3 16th hole that's held inside its own stadium but also by the tournament's annual spot as a lead-in to the Super Bowl.

Last year's edition didn't disappoint, as Scottie Scheffler outlasted Jon Rahm and Nick Taylor to take home his second consecutive WMPO title against an elite, "Designated" field. While this year's entry list won't be quite as deep, Scheffler will need to fend off a stout turnout that includes Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, and more. This is always a fun week...let's dig in!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: TPC Scottsdale

Par 71 - 7,261 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Tom Weiskopf & Jay Moorish

A lot will be made of the famous Par-3 16th hole this week, and rightfully so, as it's unlike any other hole we see on the PGA Tour, but players will have to tame the other 17 holes at TPC Scottsdale if they want to win this week. The Stadium Course isn't especially difficult by PGA Tour standards and the winning score in each of the last five years has been between 17 and 19-under par with the 36-hole cut line normally falling around Even par.

Players will need to take advantage of three gettable Par-5s, as well as the driveable Par-4 17th hole, so distance is a nice bonus this week. Perhaps more important than distance is iron play...strokes gained on approach is a consistent trait of players that fare well in Phoenix.

We have a nice sample size of course history to draw from this week and I feel comfortable making strong iron play with good proximity numbers my top priority for this event as I narrow down my potential player pool.

Recent WMPO Winners & Scoring Info

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16)
• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
• 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
• 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler

• Event Scoring Average: 67.36 (Four career starts)
• Notable Course History: Win (2023), Win ('22), T7 ('21)
• DraftKings Price: $11,600

Nothing fancy here, as Scottie Scheffler strolls into Phoenix looking for his third consecutive WMPO title. Across his last eight rounds at TPC Scottsdale the Texan has turned in just one scorecard with a score higher than 68 on it.

The world's current No. 1 golfer has been able to take care of business in this tournament in multiple ways. Last year, he led the field in SG: T2G and Approach en route to the title, while in his 2022 victory, he finished the week ranked second in SG: Putting.

In pursuit of three-peat, Scottie Scheffler highlights field at 2024 WM Phoenix Open https://t.co/2LGcnnGlgh pic.twitter.com/i54PHTW3zp

— Golfweek (@golfweek) February 3, 2024

His 2023 struggles with the putter have been well-documented but there have been some sporadic signs of a breakthrough including a win to close out '23 at the Hero World Challenge, as well as finishing last week's 54-hole AT&T Pro-Am the tiniest bit in the black on the greens (+0.8).

He now heads to a golf course where he's rolled the rock exceedingly well in previous appearances. Across his last three WMPO starts, Scheffler has gained a combined 15.8 strokes putting. If he can come anywhere close to finding that magic again this go around, there's a very real chance the man who ranks first in this week's field in SG: T2G, OTT, & APP over his last 50 rounds will again be lifting a trophy in Phoenix.

The Ponies

Justin Thomas

• Event Scoring Average: 68.38 (Nine career starts)
• Notable Course History: 4th ('23), T8 ('22), T3 ('20), 3rd ('19)
• DraftKings Price: $10,000

Although Justin Thomas has never won at TPC Scottsdale, he's put together an undeniably dominant stretch of results in the WM Phoenix Open. JT has gained more total strokes in this event (+50.94) than anyone in this year's field, including two-time champion Scottie Scheffler.

After an abysmal-by-his-standards 2023 campaign, Thomas appears to have fully righted the ship in the offseason. He's come firing out of the gates this year with a T3 at the AmEx and a T6 last week at Pebble while gaining 17.7 strokes total across his two starts of 2024.

Justin Thomas made no bogies at Pebble Beach and his longest par putt he faced was 3’ 8”

— JustinThomasStats (@JtStats) February 5, 2024

JT has repeatedly knocked on the door of wins on this layout throughout his career and has posted three top-four finishes at TPC Scottsdale since 2019. He enters this edition of the WM Phoenix with a refocused mindset and a retooled swing that's been dialed. Thomas hasn't won in almost two years and this could well be where that drought comes to an end.

Byeong Hun An

• Event Scoring Average: 68.60 (Five career starts)
• Notable Course History: T9 ('20), T20 ('19), T23 ('18), T6 ('17)
• DraftKings Price: $8,800

While Ben An's superstar status won't be confused with our first two selections this week, An's 2024 output has been second to none. The former U.S. Am champion has announced his presence on the PGA Tour with authority this year, opening with a T4 in Kapalua and following with a runner-up result in the Sony Open. Remarkably, An now has top-five finishes in half of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour.

Recently, the 3 iron I hit into the green at Sony 18th hole. https://t.co/BRXiilLfKZ pic.twitter.com/WLd8oq1gaG

— Byeong Hun An (@ByeongHunAn) January 28, 2024

He brings that white-hot form to a TPC Scottsdale track where he's experienced plenty of success in the past. An scored a T6 in his 2017 WMPO debut and has continued to play well in his subsequent opportunities, logging top-25 results in 2018 & '19, as well as another top-10 finish in the 2020 edition. This will be his first WMPO start in two years and his recent form and course history indicate he's very capable of making some noise this week.

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Hideki Matsuyama

• Event Scoring Average: 68.14 (10 career starts)
• Notable Course History: T8 ('22), Win ('17), Win ('16), T2 ('15), T4 ('14)
• DraftKings Price: $8,400

It looked for a while there as if Hideki Matsuyama was never going to have a bad outing at the WM Phoenix Open. Across his first four career starts in this event, the Japanese superstar went T4-T2-Win-Win. Following a WD in his fifth WMPO appearance, Matsuyama resumed his excellence with top-16 results in 2019-20 and he scored his most recent top-10 (T8) result just two years ago.

However, the 2024 version of Hideki doesn't quite feel like the Hideki we've come to know over the past decade...at least not yet. Some have reported that Matsuyama spent the offseason trying to gain distance off the tee and his stockier appearance indicates he's tried to physically bulk up. The results have been mixed to this point, as the former Masters champion has sandwiched two solid outings at Sony & Farmers between poor ones at the Sentry and Pebble Beach.

It's tough to predict which version of Hideki we'll get this week, though this course tends to bring out his best, as his 68.14 career scoring average at TPC Scottsdale hints at. His erratic finishes and volatile stats will scare some folks away, but he's an intriguing GPP option on this track where he's had so much success.

2/5/17 – Hideki Matsuyama (65-68-68-66-267, -17) drained a birdie putt on 4 to defeat Webb Simpson (67-71-65-64-267, -17) in a 4-hole playoff, Hideki's 2nd straight Phoenix Open win, both requiring a four extra holes, & the 1st repeat winner since the Tourney moved to TPC. #WMPO pic.twitter.com/1Ar30LSNPl

— Arizona Sports History (@AZSportsHistory) February 5, 2024

Course History Quick Hits

• Jordan Spieth ($9,500) - Four top-10 finishes in seven career WMPO starts.
• J.T. Poston ($8,900) - Top-20 finishes in all four of his 2024 starts, has made the cut in 4/5 career WMPO appearances.
• Rickie Fowler ($8,200) - Former WMPO champion with three additional top-five finishes in this event across 15 career starts.
• Billy Horschel ($7,100) - Made the cut in nine consecutive WMPO starts and in 10/11 starts across his career. Two top-10 finishes since 2020.
• Sam Ryder ($6,900) - Has never missed a cut in five career TPC Scottsdale starts, top-25 finishes the last two years.
• Scott Stallings ($6,700) - Made cut in four of last five WMPO starts with three top-25 finishes among those.

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