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Jarod Rupp takes a look at the Chris Sale trade and contemplates what fantasy managers can expect from the hurler in 2024. Can Sale help the Atlanta Braves catch the Dodgers in 2024?
Over the weekend, Chris Sale was traded to the Atlanta Braves, and infielder Vaughn Grissom was shipped off to the Boston Red Sox. The Braves, as with every major league team, needed some pitching help after a dominant 2023 came to a quick halt in the playoffs. The team is built to win now and is going to have to keep pace with the Dodgers if they want to have a shot at another World Series title.
With the middle infield secure, it was thought that maybe Vaughn Grissom would get some time in left field in 2024 but became expendable after Atlanta recently acquired Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners. The Red Sox see Grissom as their second baseman for 2024, and Kelenic's stock may get a boost now that it's looking less likely that he'll be in a platoon situation.
In Chris Sale, the Braves get a 7x All-Star that, when healthy, can still be a force to be reckoned with on the mound. At age 34 though, he's no spring chicken, and maintaining health has been quite the challenge the last few years. So what is his outlook and where should he be going in drafts? Let's take a look.
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All 11 of Chris Sale’s strikeouts against the Twins tonight.
First time with 10+ strikeouts since August 13th, 2019, which was his final start of that season. pic.twitter.com/BK0HeyaHTP
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) April 19, 2023
Chris Sale 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Chris Sale came into the league in 2010, but it wasn't until 2012 that he became a full-time starter for the Chicago White Sox. He was an All-Star in that season and for six consecutive seasons after that; five appearances with Chicago and two with Boston. His last All-Star appearance was in 2018. After being uncharacteristically poor for most of 2019, Sale was placed on the IL and didn't pitch again that season after August 13. The run of injuries had begun.
The biggest Sale Day so far!
Chris Sale struck out a career-high 17 in this dominant 2019 performance. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/qOivEXK3Y1
— MLB (@MLB) December 30, 2023
He missed all of 2020 after Tommy John surgery. He came back in August of 2021 and was good during the regular season but was very ineffective in three postseason appearances. He began 2022 on the IL with a rib injury, fractured his pinkie on a comebacker to the mound in his second start off the IL, broke his wrist while on the IL, and a shoulder issue caused him to miss about two and a half months in the middle of 2023.
The silver lining is that he went into the offseason healthy and will be ready to go in 2024. He also was able to maintain a K/9 of 11 over the 102.2 IP last season, with a K% of 29.4% and K-BB% of 22.6%. His ERA was 4.30, but his xFIP of 3.72 suggests it wasn't that bad. The Braves scored the most runs per game last season (5.75) and will be expected to be at or near the top again in 2024, so there should be plenty of opportunity to pick up wins.
Chris Sale, Wicked 76mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/W4VOpPDlJO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2023
The lanky southpaw was Boston's ace, but on the Braves he's projected to be the fourth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton, so that should take some of the pressure off of him too. FGDC projections have him pitching a modest 141 innings, going 11-7 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 163 K. He's going very late in drafts, around pick 182 according to his NFBC ADP, and RotoBaller has him ranked similarly at 185.
Sale will go into the season at age 35, and teammate Charlie Morton is proof that pitchers can be effective at that age. In Morton's age 35 season, he was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA with 240 K in 194.2 IP and was an All-Star. If Sale can produce anything close to those numbers, he'll certainly be a great value in drafts, but if he can produce somewhere between that and his FGDC projection he'd still outproduce his ADP. The risk is that he doesn't stay healthy, but here's to hoping the injury bug doesn't bite in 2024.
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