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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 7 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week was a massacre for injuries to superstars. It was part of what led to a massive dip in overall scoring, which has been a theme this year. We were also reminded that the most difficult part of football, NFL or otherwise, is predicting game scripts and outcomes. The undefeated Eagles and 49ers lost, and the Bills, who were the heaviest favorite in 2023, were lucky to win by five points. The bye weeks really heat up with the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans all taking a break. It hits pretty hard, causing players you would normally sit to be in your lineup.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice there are players that are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included as part of the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you survived the flurry of injuries and came out on top with your team mostly intact. Regardless of where you stand, it's a new week with another shot to get the win. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3.0
Implied Total: Lions (20) vs. Ravens (23)
Pace: Lions (31st) vs. Ravens (24th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 47.2% Pass (4th), -3.2% Rush (7th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 15.4% Pass (14th), -12.5% Rush (4th)
Lions Def. DVOA: -11.3% Pass (5th), -27.3% Rush (3rd)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -14.6% Pass (3rd), -19.6% Rush (7th)
WEATHER: There is expected to be sustained wind in this game with moderate gusts that could impact the passing attack.
Matchups We Love:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Of all the players on both sides, St. Brown is by far the one to be most excited for. Only health can slow him down. The matchup isn't ideal, but the volume is among the league's best. Beyond him, it was Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams earning three targets each and making plays. Williams hauled in a 45-yard bomb in the end zone on a nice throw from Jared Goff. What's interesting is the pass/run ratio after David Montgomery got hurt went from 56%/44% to 74%/26% in a game they never trailed. It's likely due to personnel given they were without Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but they'll be without at least Montgomery, making Reynolds and Williams flex options. Reynolds with more of a floor and Williams with the ceiling.
UPDATE: Gibbs and Reynolds are good to go. It's going to be a lot of Gibbs in this one, especially on the ground.
Matchups We Hate:
Ravens RBs
Gus Edwards reclaimed the lead back role, dominating the carries 16 to eight over Justice Hill. Hill still operated as the receiving back with three targets. The matchup is very difficult and you never know how much Lamar Jackson will mix in, so they're also in the flex range as players who will probably need to score to deliver with Hill as the favorite for the receptions.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff played a nice game with no turnovers and took only three sacks. His 44 passing attempts were nine more than any other outing this season, which we discussed above. It's not in their best interest to become one-dimensional, but the responsibility will shift to Goff with the backfield banged up. The Ravens are among the best in the league in coverage, ranking second, according to PFF, so Goff slides into the high-end streamer range. With so many signal-callers injured, he's still likely to land in the top 12.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
The Ravens struggled to score in the second half. It was sufficient to beat the Titans, but they'll need more from Jackson and Co. to hang with Detroit. Once again, they could not convert third downs and sustain drives. Jackson did enough on the ground to supplement his lower passing numbers, so he's in the top five in spite of the poor matchup.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews finished with four receptions for 69 yards, which is sufficient at tight end. Jackson went back to spreading the ball around, involving eight different players with just 21 completions. It's a recipe for disaster. Andrews is still too good to pivot off of, but the other tight end in the game is ahead of him.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Flowers earned the most targets (eight) and accounted for their only touchdown. It wasn't pretty, but he seems to be emerging as the No. 1 option, even ahead of Andrews. So Flowers is back in the top 24. The battle between Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr., and Rashod Bateman is trending toward Agholor. Unfortunately, outside of a desperation flex option, it's best to look elsewhere for a receiver after Flowers.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta was nursing a calf injury all week that made him questionable to play. He gutted it out and saw 11 targets. His four receptions for 36 yards were disappointing, but the volume is awesome. The Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year, but much of that is who they've faced (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indy, and Cincy). LaPorta remains an elite option as the true No. 2 in the offense.
Lions RB
Gibbs is back practicing and seems hopeful to suit up. Assuming he's able to be on the field, he'll take over as the starter. We have one game with him in that role, which was Week 3 against Atlanta. His reception total dropped to just two but that was because he rushed the ball 18 times. His potential for a full workload and goal-line work make him a top-15 back despite a tougher matchup. Craig Reynolds is the next man up. The last time Montgomery was out, he saw just four carries, but that was when Zonovan Knight was healthy. With him out of the way, that number should rise to the eight to 12 range, providing him with flex value.
Injuries:
David Montgomery (ribs)
Craig Reynolds (hamstring/toe)
Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Implied Total: Raiders (20) vs. Bears (17.5)
Pace: Raiders (21st) vs. Bears (23rd)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -2.6% Pass (22nd), -28.4% Rush (30th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -8.5% Pass (28th), -0.1% Rush (9th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 8.4% Pass (16th), 2.0% Rush (27th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 32.4% Pass (30th), -10.3% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Raiders WRs
The Davante Adams shoulder injury seems to have sapped some of his production. It's also possible that Bill Belichick schemed up a defensive plan to shut him down as he so often does. In either case, it's opened the door for Jakobi Meyers, who looks like an excellent signing for the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo was taken to hospital for a back injury. This time they handed the reigns to Brian Hoyer, who is a competent veteran backup. I'd expect him to get the nod. The matchup is fantastic, locking both these receivers into your lineup, especially with injuries and bye weeks.
UPDATE: As expected, Garoppolo is out and Hoyer will get the start.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
As anticipated, Jacobs had a tough time on the ground running for just 3.1 yards per carry. However, when you get 25 rushing attempts and five targets, efficiency isn't such a concern. Projecting a similar volume in a plus-matchup means Jacobs has a shot to crack the top 10 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
Just as Justin Fields was heating up, he suffered an injury that will sideline him for this week and likely beyond. While Fields is still questionable as a franchise quarterback, there's no doubt the dropoff from him to Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie, is steep. Moore still led the team in every receiving category, but his ceiling takes a real hit given the downgrade to the offense. He drops outside the top 24 in a matchup that isn't as juicy as we thought it was earlier in the season. It's more average at this point. There's no one outside of Moore to look to in the passing attack.
Bears RBs
Roschon Johnson has yet to return to practice, which is the next step for him to progress through the concussion protocol. It's a little concerning considering it's been two full weeks now. Travis Homer got in a full practice. He'd figure to mix in on passing downs with Darrynton Evans if he's out there and Johnson isn't. D'Onta Foreman will compete for early down work regardless of who is active but obviously has more appeal if Johnson is out. He toted the rock 15 times for 65 yards but without a touchdown, he's bound to disappoint because he lacks a pass-catching skill set. Johnson would be in the top 24 if active, while Foreman is more of a volume-based back if Johnson misses.
UPDATE: Johnson has been ruled out yet again. It's concerning for his long-term outlook. For this week, it means Foreman is a volume-based option with Homer filling in as the passing downs back.
Michael Mayer (TE, LV)
Another player the Raiders added this offseason was Mayer, who they selected 35th overall. He was an exciting prospect that many thought would get drafted in Round 1. He seemed like a bust over the first four weeks but has since emerged as an intriguing young tight end. His targets climbed from three in Week 5 to six this past week. More impressive is the fact that he caught five of them for 75 yards, finishing as the TE5. In a superb matchup, he's worth a look as a streamer.
Injuries:
Khalil Herbert (ankle)
Roschon Johnson (concussion)
Justin Fields (thumb)
Jimmy Garoppolo (back)
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Browns -3.5
Implied Total: Browns (22.25) vs. Colts (18.75)
Pace: Browns (20th) vs. Colts (4th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -17.6% Pass (31st), -10.5% Rush (21st)
Colts Off. DVOA: 6.0% Pass (18th), 5.2% Rush (6th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -32.9% Pass (1st), -24.6% Rush (4th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass (17th), -10.0% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
Cooper made a couple of extremely impressive catches to turn what seemed like a death sentence of a situation into a good game with over 100 receiving yards. P.J. Walker proved to be a much better option than Dorian Thompson-Robinson, not only enabling the Browns to total over 300 yards of offense but also getting the win over the 49ers. Deshaun Watson remains a question mark for Week 7 with a shoulder injury that was either underrepresented by the team or he's deciding to be overly cautious about. Regardless of where the truth lies, Cooper is a top-20 receiver against the Colts and their secondary. It's also good news for Elijah Moore, who earned seven targets, trailing only Cooper. We don't want to get too excited with Walker at the helm, but he's a possible flex option in full-PPR formats.
UPDATE: Watson has been pushing play to play and is now active. It's hard to know how healthy he is.
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
It was not looking good for Ford until late in the game when he started racking up yards on the ground. He ended up with 84 on the ground and seven through the air on 19 touches. It's a promising sign given he was facing the San Francisco defense. Part of what was hampering his production was the involvement of Kareem Hunt, who had 15 touches of his own. His 37% of snaps was the highest since joining the Browns, indicating he's carved out a role behind Ford, primarily as a receiver. The Colts are 19th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, 18th in run defense DVOA, and allow the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs, making Ford a top-20 option with Hunt an upside flex play.
UPDATE: Hunt is good to go and should see enough work to be a solid flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Colts Passing Attack
Gardner Minshew is by no means an above-average NFL quarterback. However, he's capable of distributing the ball to his receivers and running backs with massive volume. The game script forced the Colts to air it out 55 times, which meant a great day for Michael Pittman Jr., who hauled in nine passes for 109 yards, and Josh Downs, who found the end zone. Unfortunately, the matchup is as bad as it gets against Cleveland, who ranks at or near the top of pretty much every defensive category, especially their pass defense. The hope is that this duo of wideouts can survive on volume, dropping Pittman Jr. right around the top 24 and Downs outside of it.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
After a big game with the rookie looking for checkdowns and quick throws, Njoku came crashing back down to earth. He's not off the radar completely, but he's not someone to chase on a team that prefers to pound the rock.
Other Matchups:
Colts RBs
We already covered the brutal matchup the backfield will be facing. Thankfully, they earned a combined 13 targets, representing a 23.6% target share. Both Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss finished with 13 touches. Although Taylor was more productive in terms of yards, which is what we'd expect given his talent profile. They also split the goal-line work, but it was Moss who found pay dirt. The shift in snaps and touches toward Taylor is slow but steady, making him the preferred option as a top-24 tailback with Moss right on the cusp of that range.
Injuries:
Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
Kareem Hunt (thigh)
Jelani Woods (hamstring)
Anthony Richardson (shoulder)
Kyle Granson (concussion)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Spread: Bills -8.0
Implied Total: Bills (24) vs. Patriots (16)
Pace: Bills (29th) vs. Patriots (2nd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 57.2% Pass (3rd), -4.1% Rush (12th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -9.9% Pass (30th), -12.1% Rush (23rd)
Bills Def. DVOA: -8.0% Pass (8th), -15.6% Rush (12th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 13.7% Pass (23rd), -19.5% Rush (8th)
WEATHER: There is expected to be sustained wind in this game with moderate gusts that could impact the passing attack.
Matchups We Love:
Bills WRs
Buffalo laid an egg against New York but got lucky with a poor audible from Tyrod Taylor to end the first half and then a late stop in the fourth quarter. They've had a couple of disappointing weeks in a row, not to mention the Week 1 debacle. The offense has been inconsistent, but the one player you can count on is Stefon Diggs, who just keeps crushing it. We elected to include Gabe Davis in this section because he's been playing really well and as we referenced above, New England tends to take away your best option, which is undoubtedly Diggs. Davis gets a pass for last week with a shot to redeem himself in Week 7 as a top-36 receiver.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen may not deserve to be in this section after his performance in Week 6, but the limited number of quality quarterbacks combined with the Patriots' ability to defend the run thrusts him back into the top 10. It's bound to be a heated divisional battle, but it's typically one he shows out in.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots Passing Attack
The injuries to the receiving corps allowed Kendrick Bourne and the running backs to combine for 19 of Mac Jones's 33 targets (58%). Hunter Henry hauled in just one pass for seven yards. Buffalo's defense is still tough but there'll be enough volume to support one option from this group as a flex player, which currently looks like Bourne. Outside of that, it's best not to linger here.
UPDATE: Henry, Douglas, and Smith-Schuster are all listed as questionable for Sunday. If they're all active, then even Bourne would be a bench.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Without Kincaid active, Dawson Knox finished second in targets with six. It shows they still want to place an emphasis on the tight end position, which bodes well for Kincaid who will return to action this week. He seemed to be building some momentum before the injury but has yet to really solidify a strong role. The matchup is below average, so he remains a streamer.
Other Matchups:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
Finally, Stevenson has come back to relevance. (Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson reference for those who don't know). Moving on, it was a relief to see Stevenson come through in a plus matchup after so many uninspiring fantasy finishes. There are several positive takeaways, starting with his RB8 performance. Moreover, he caught a season-high five passes and scored for the first time since Week 1. What's also reassuring is he did it with Ezekiel Elliott taking away eight touches, some of which occurred when Stevenson was on the sideline. The Patriots appear to have figured out that game planning around him is their best shot at success. The Bills have been more susceptible to the run, earning him a spot in the top 24. Elliott is also a desperation flex option given the bye weeks.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Not throwing a single pass to Cook is high on the list of poor decisions made by Allen and the coaching staff. They also kept going away from their ground game in general, which averaged 4.4 yards per carry on the night. Cook himself was over five. There was a lot more Latavius Murray, although that was partially due to the injury to Damien Harris. Murray and Cook each played 49% of the snaps, but there's no question Cook is the more talented option. The Patriots remain a difficult run defense, so he'll need those receptions to bounce back, but as the starter on this offense, he's closer to the top 24 than a flex option.
Injuries:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (head)
Demario Douglas (head)
Hunter Henry (ankle)
Damien Harris (neck/concussion)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Spread: Commanders -3.0
Implied Total: Commanders (20.25) vs. Giants (17.25)
Pace: Commanders (17th) vs. Giants (13th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -6.5% Pass (26th), -2.3% Rush (10th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -21.7% Pass (32nd), -31.7% Rush (32nd)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 18.6% Pass (27th), -12.5% Rush (14th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 15.7% Pass (26th), 6.1% Rush (30th)
WEATHER: There is expected to be sustained wind in this game with moderate gusts that may impact the passing attack.
Matchups We Love:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley was a true question mark heading into the weekend, so the fact that he not only played but handled 28 touches is incredible. The gap in talent between him and the next-best offensive playmaker cannot be overstated. He'll be the focal point against a division rival he knows well. His workload and the matchup make him a must-start.
Darren Waller (TE, NYG)
It hasn't been a smooth ride for Waller this season, but five catches for 43 yards won't kill you at tight end. Barkley's presence will help to sustain drives and increase scoring opportunities, which is great news for everyone. Waller lands inside the top 10 in a nice matchup.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
After dominating targets the week prior, Thomas earned just one against Atlanta. It was certainly disheartening, but the Commanders led the majority of the game, allowing them to limit Sam Howell to just 14 completions on 23 attempts, which is a winning strategy for this club. It's likely that they are the better team here, but spending two and a half quarters with a double-digit lead is improbable. Thomas deserves another chance to redeem himself as a top-12 tight end.
Commanders WRs
One would assume this heading refers to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. However, it's not Dotson, but rather Curtis Samuel who is the No. 2 in the offense at the moment. Dotson continues to play more snaps and run more routes, but his targets have steadily decreased in the past two weeks and the production has been nonexistent. McLaurin was able to break out of the slump he was in, earning 11 targets, which is a season-high. There'll always be risk because the volume is widely distributed (seven players targeted this week) but you can count on McLaurin as a top-24 receiver with Samuel in the top 36 against New York.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
Robinson made a nice move on a screen pass to take it to the house for 24 yards, which was really the bright spot on the day. You'd figure in a game they led for so long that he'd have racked up at least 12-15 carries, but he finished with only 10. Furthermore, he ceded work to Antonio Gibson, who also caught a touchdown from the one-yard line, and Chris Rodriguez Jr., who took four rushing attempts away, including two in the third quarter. Robinson did earn two targets, so he's still being used as a receiver, but the offense is not explosive enough for him to split time with more than one other back. The matchup keeps him in the top 24, but it'll be worth monitoring the involvement of Rodriguez this week. Gibson is a potential flex option given his overall usage and the bye weeks.
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
As mentioned, Howell wasn't asked to do much. Yet, he found the end zone three times, so for fantasy, it mostly worked out. He managed to keep his sack pace going with five more despite only throwing the ball 23 times. It's a real issue from an NFL perspective, but for fantasy, the matchup and likelihood that the Washington defense gives up points makes him a streamer.
Giants WRs
It looks like Daniel Jones will miss another week due to injury, meaning another start for Tyrod Taylor, who played within himself and nearly stole a win over Buffalo. Having him as the starter is okay for the receiving options, who survived on volume last week. Wan'Dale Robinson had eight receptions for 62 yards, Jalin Hyatt caught three for 21, and Darius Slayton made four grabs for 69 yards, but his were further down the field. Robinson seems to have taken the crown as the volume king, putting him in the top 36, especially in full-PPR formats. Slayton has the big-play potential as a flex option and Hyatt is worth a stash.
Injuries:
Daniel Jones (neck)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Implied Total: Falcons (17.25) vs. Buccaneers (19.75)
Pace: Falcons (11th) vs. Buccaneers (16th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -3.1% Pass (23rd), -9.2% Rush (17th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 14.3 Pass (15th), -24.5% Rush (28th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 25.5% Pass (29th), -19.4% Rush (9th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -3.4% Pass (11th), -17.8% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
It's rare we get an opportunity to be excited about White these days because the opponent's run defense is consistently good. Atlanta is no exception, ranking ninth in DVOA, 11th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, and No. 1 rush EPA per play on defense. It's tough times this week so White may have to be in your lineup, but try to look elsewhere if you can.
Other Matchups:
Drake London (WR, ATL)
Desmond Ridder has thrown the ball at least 31 times in each of their last five games. Last week, it was the game script, which Ridder created by committing three turnovers that put them in a hole. Their defense is pretty solid overall, but so long as teams can keep scoring, they'll need to maintain the heavy passing volume. It translated to another huge day for London, hauling in nine passes for 125 yards. With Ridder totaling over 300 yards and 30 attempts per game, London is in the top 24.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts trailed only London in targets while finding the end zone for the first time this year. Not to be outdone, Jonnu Smith also scored and remains a part of this timeshare. Lavonte David did a nice job of limiting LaPorta last week, so it's a tougher matchup, but that may affect Smith more than Pitts given where they line up.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
The passing volume has also boosted Robinson's numbers. He ran 45 routes, earning eight targets, which is part of why Tyler Allgeier is seeing more work on the ground. Robinson dominated the snaps (64-23), and finished with 18 total touches, so it's hard to be too upset. He's still in the top 12, but the matchup is harder this week against the Buccaneers. Allgeier is also in consideration as a flex option, knowing you'll get at least 10 touches.
Buccaneers WRs
Mike Evans was a tipped ball away from what would've been a massive play to open the game. Sadly, it was picked off and returned for a touchdown, which accurately captures the day for Tampa Bay. The inability to connect was an issue as Evans only caught 40% of his targets, although they obviously were not all his fault. It did lend itself to a decent day for Chris Godwin, who now has back-to-back top-30 finishes. He gets a plus-matchup this week as the Falcons have better cornerbacks, keeping him in the top 36 with Evans ahead of him in the top 30 taking on A.J. Terrell.
Injuries:
None
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -3.0
Implied Total: Steelers (20.5) vs. Rams (23.5)
Pace: Steelers (8th) vs. Rams (27th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: -5.2% Pass (25th), -29.9% Rush (31st)
Rams Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (9th), 9.1% Rush (5th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -6.2% Pass (9th), -9.3% Rush (19th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 9.5% Pass (19th), -8.5% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Rams WRs
Cooper Kupp stole the show with a vintage performance against the Cardinals. He dominated their defense with 147 yards and a score. He also edged Puka Nacua in targets with two more. Despite similar usage, Nacua could not deliver. He did drop a ball in the end zone, which would have helped his case. The Rams will be without their top two running backs this week, so there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about him in a good matchup as a top-24 receiver. It also means Tutu Atwell, who will be volatile, is worth a look as a flex option.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Arizona held its own until halftime. They then watched their defense get shredded by Kyren Williams. It allowed Stafford to sit back and cruise to a comfortable win. As we alluded to, both Williams and Ronnie Rivers are facing a multi-week absence, so more will fall on the shoulders of Stafford who's still a streaming candidate.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
With three receivers ahead of him, it's hard to trust Higbee as more than a touchdown-or-bust streamer, but there's still a path to success, especially if the passing volume sees an uptick.
Rams RBs
Zach Evans is a controversial rookie prospect who may or may not get the privilege of being their lead back this week. He was the last man standing until they activated Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson and Myles Gaskin. Gaskin is of no concern, but Freeman has some familiarity with the system, and obviously, they know Henderson well. They were willing to move on from him, but that doesn't mean they won't use him in a pinch. The matchup is good enough to start someone, but knowing who is tricky. Evans has the most upside as an unknown prospect, so that's probably the best place to call your shot.
UPDATE: Henderson will be active as expected. The team has announced that it will be him and Freeman sharing the workload this week. Henderson is the preferred flex option.
Steelers RBs
We often see a change in role for younger players coming out of a bye. Jaylen Warren is in his second season and has done everything you could ask for. The Steelers are historically known for riding one back, but we've seen a full-blown timeshare between Warren and Najee Harris so far. It would be great to see Warren earn more snaps and touches, but that may be more of a pipedream. Regardless, the matchup and game script make Warren the better start as a flex option.
Steelers WRs
Reinforcements are coming from Pittsburgh, including Diontae Johnson. George Pickens did his best to operate as the leader in the offense while Johnson was out, but he's better suited as the deep threat No. 2 option while Johnson soaks up targets underneath. They'll still be without Pat Freiermuth, who re-aggravated his hamstring in practice on Thursday, consolidating the volume to these two. Los Angeles hasn't been as poor in recent weeks, but neither of their starting cornerbacks rank inside the top 24 in coverage, according to PFF. They're also 25th in defensive EPA per dropback. Johnson resumes his spot in the top 24 with Pickens in the top 36.
Injuries:
Kyren Williams (ankle)
Ronnie Rivers (knee)
Pat Freiermuth (hamstring)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -8.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (18) vs. Seahawks (26.5)
Pace: Cardinals (6th) vs. Seahawks (15th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 17.0% Pass (13th), 0.9% Rush (8th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 31.9% Pass (7th), -4.8% Rush (13th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 35.4% Pass (31st), 4.7% Rush (29th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 14.5% Pass (24th), -28.7% Rush (1st)
WEATHER: There is a chance of rain during this game, which could lead to more turnovers and running the ball.
Matchups We Love:
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
It was an ugly outing for the Seahawks, but that didn't stop Walker III from crushing it with nearly 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 22 touches. Zach Charbonnet remains an afterthought with 23 carries and six receptions on the season. Walker's not the most elusive or efficient runner, but he has five breakaway runs (15-plus yards) in 2023, averaging 34.5 yards per carry on those runs. The workload he's getting increases the chance he hits those big plays, and he always has the volume to fall back on. He's firmly in the top 12 against Arizona.
UPDATE: Charbonnet is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. There's no reaction here other than to celebrate if you're a Walker manager.
Seahawks WRs
DK Metcalf was visibly frustrated against the Bengals. He should've finished with more production than he did. In the end, he and Tyler Lockett combined for 10 receptions and 164 yards on 18 targets, which is more like what we'd expect from this duo. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had his best contest and his highest aDot at 7.4 yards. It's encouraging for his potential moving forward. Jake Bobo keeps stealing work, so seeing those opportunities go to Smith-Njigba would be nice. Lockett and Metcalf are locked in given the matchup with Smith-Njigba as a deeper dart throw.
UPDATE: Metcalf is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. It's unlikely he's out but Smith-Njigba would jump into the top 36 if he is.
Marquise Brown (RB, ARI)
Brown earned a 30% target share and a targets per route run of 27%. The aDot was there too at 17.18 yards. Unfortunately, only 55% of them were catchable in Week 6, which correlates to the season total of 67%. The good news is that the team activated Kyler Murray's 21-day practice window, signaling he'll be back sooner rather than later. He remains a top-30 receiver who is reliant on volume, despite the matchup with Devon Witherspoon. After Brown, it's Michael Wilson, who makes splash plays down the field, and Rondale Moore, who continues to function as a hybrid runner/receiver. The Seahawks are allowing the most fantasy points to wideouts on the year, so they're both potential flex options.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
There's a shift from Ertz to Trey McBride happening, which is in the best interest of their offense. Ertz has the ability to get open and create easy throws for the quarterback, but he's not going to add many yards after the catch. McBride played more snaps and ran one fewer route. They cancel each other out for this week, but with Murray's impending return and his increasing role, McBride is someone to keep an eye out for.
Cardinals RBs
Much like the Rams, there are too many bodies in the backfield. In terms of snap percentage, it went Emari Demercado, Keaontay Ingram, and then Damien Williams. However, both Williams and Ingram saw more touches. Seattle's run defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA and sixth in defensive EPA per rush. There's no one here you want to start.
Other Matchups:
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith flopped again with a terrible outing against Cincy. They prefer to run the ball and they should be able to, making him a risky streamer even with the juicy matchup. He'll need the touchdowns to come through to air to have any chance of helping your squad, which hasn't been the case through six weeks.
Injuries:
Kyler Murray (knee)
James Conner (knee)
Zach Charbonnet (hamstring)
DK Metcalf (ribs/hip)
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Packers -1.5
Implied Total: Packers (23.25) vs. Broncos (21.75)
Pace: Packers (10th) vs. Broncos (18th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (11th), -20.3% Rush (27th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 4.5% Pass (20th), -3.0% Rush (11th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (14th), 1.8% Rush (26th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 48.3% Pass (32nd), 9.5% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
The team held Jones out on Monday night prior to their bye to give him the extra rest. The hope was that he'd be good to go in Week 7. He's still on the injury report and practicing in a limited fashion, which gives me pause. The expectation seems to be that he'll play, but that may not equate to a full workload against the Broncos. Thankfully, the last word in that sentence was Broncos, who have been abysmal at stopping the run. Even on limited snaps, Jones would be a top-20 back. AJ Dillon may also be worth a look if we know Jones is limited entering Sunday.
UPDATE: Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. It's a little surprising coming out of the bye week, but he still seems set to play. Dillon would be a top-24 back if he's out.
Christian Watson (WR, GB)
Two weeks ago, we saw Patrick Surtain II shut down Garrett Wilson. The Chiefs don't have a legit No. 1 receiver, so it's hard to draw a conclusion from last week. Watson ought to be the one who draws him in coverage, which is enough to push him outside the top 15, but the upside is still there. It does add some intrigue to Romeo Doubs and/or Jayden Reed. Doubs has operated as the No. 2 receiver or No. 1 when Watson was out, but the gap in production isn't all that large. Doubs has just 18 more yards and one more touchdown. They're both in the top 36 with the edge going to Doubs.
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB)
The other piece of this ensemble is Musgrave, who leads the team in yards after the catch (90) and sits second in receptions (18). His combination of talent as an outlet and downfield threat make him a breakout candidate as early as this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love struggled against Las Vegas in Week 5 with three interceptions while completing just 53% of his passes. On the flip side, Denver has been roasted by opposing signal-callers on the season but looked formidable last week against Patrick Mahomes. It's enough to categorize Love as a boom-bust streamer with a wide range of outcomes.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
The theme of things going from one end of the spectrum to the other continues here with Wilson. He was performing okay from an NFL perspective, and quite well for fantasy entering their Thursday night showdown with Kansas City. He somehow managed 95 passing yards on 22 attempts. Travis Kelce had more receiving yards than he did passing. That seems unfathomable. Nevertheless, it happened and it makes him hard to trust in a mediocre matchup.
Other Matchups:
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
The area to exploit the Packers' defense is on the ground, which has been the case dating back to 2022. Williams joined this group just in time to wreck the hopes of Jaleel McLaughlin managers, who thought they'd get a start. Williams handled 10 carries in spite of his health concerns, confirming he's still the lead back. McLaughlin and Samaje Perine each earned two targets with the former seeing seven carries as well. Williams and McLaughlin could both be flex options for you with so many tailbacks banged up or on bye this week.
Broncos WRs
Credit goes to Courtland Sutton for somehow not burning fantasy managers even though his quarterback couldn't surpass 100 yards. Can't imagine there's a long list of players who can say that. He's found the end zone four times. Yet, only one of those has come in the red zone. The lack of faith in Wilson has to impact him as well, especially given the Packers will have Jaire Alexander in tow. After dealing with trade rumors and getting ripped on national television by Steve Smith, it's fair to wonder how long Jerry Jeudy will stay a Bronco. He's averaging about six targets per game, hasn't scored a touchdown in 2023, and is clearly behind Sutton. Sutton drops outside the top 30 while Jeudy is a low-ceiling flex receiver.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Aaron Jones (hamstring)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Implied Total: Chargers (21) vs. Chiefs (26.5)
Pace: Chargers (3rd) vs. Chiefs (26th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 29.7% Pass (8th), -9.9% Rush (18th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 36.7% Pass (5th), -6.6% Rush (16th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 11.4% Pass (21st), -0.1% Rush (24th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -10.9% Pass (6th), -8.1% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
We already referenced his outstanding game in the write-up above. He's the best in the NFL. End of story.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Kansas City has subtly developed a new identity, centered around playing defense and pounding the rock with Pacheco. He's slowly become a workhorse for one of the NFL's most elite offenses. He's had at least 15 carries in each of his past four outings with three-plus receptions in three of those four. He hit a season-high six catches last week. It's another solid matchup in a game with lots of points to be scored, positioning him up in the top 15.
Matchups We Hate:
Chargers TEs
Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. are sharing the tight end role. The offensive does need a red zone threat, so they'll maintain that opportunity on a weekly basis, but that's really their only appeal at this point. Everett is still the starter if you're looking for someone this week.
Other Matchups:
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen was so close to a monster day. Justin Herbert overthrew him on a sideline play that would've likely gone the distance. He still finished with seven grabs for 85 yards and a score, but there's a chance for him to beat that this week. Kansas City has a talented secondary, but Allen lines up all over the field, so he'll be just fine. Joshua Palmer was doing his best Mike Williams impression, making contested catches downfield. He averaged 20 yards per reception, which is valuable utilization. He slots in as a top-36 wideout. Quentin Johnston looks like a bust at this point. It's not as if another receiver played ahead of him because they have no one else to turn to, but finishing with zero receptions is unacceptable. He's unstartable for the foreseeable future.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler made his long-awaited return and immediately received 18 touches. Dallas has a stout defense, so it's not a shock that he struggled to run the ball. The Chargers rank 30th in run blocking, according to PFF, so Ekeler will need to overcome some of their shortcomings. The Chiefs are more susceptible to the run, setting him up for a better day.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Something to note is that the over/under is less than 50. These two organizations meet one another twice a year and it's rare for it not to be a projected shootout. It speaks to both the improvement from the Kansas City defense and the struggles from the Los Angeles offense. Herbert is still in your lineup of course, but it may not be a barn burner.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The information reviewed under Herbert's section applies here, too. Additionally, the team hasn't needed Mahomes to be Superman. Strangely enough, when they do let him sling it, he commits turnovers and makes uncharacteristic decisions. He's currently ninth in quarterback rating, eighth in completion percentage, sixth in passing yards, and fifth in passing touchdowns. It's not time to panic, but there's a real possibility he goes the rest of the season finishing outside the top five most weeks, ending the year closer to the QB12 mark than QB1 overall.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rice has been showing up in this section for weeks now. He made some big plays last week and played just five fewer snaps than Marquez Valdes-Scantling and two fewer than Skyy Moore. The team is leaning on him more because the options are subpar. Speaking of other options, they elected to reunite with Mecole Hardman Jr. via trade, further evidencing their lack of faith in the other pass-catchers. Rice is an upside top-36 receiver.
Injuries:
Justin Watson (elbow)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3.0
Implied Total: Dolphins (24.25) vs. Eagles (27.25)
Pace: Dolphins (14th) vs. Eagles (28th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 61.8% Pass (2nd), 32.2% Rush (1st)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 18.2% Pass (12th), 15.1% Rush (2nd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (22nd), 0.9% Rush (25th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 11.1% Pass (20th), -28.6% Rush (2nd)
WEATHER: There is a chance of sustained wind in this game with moderate gusts that could impact the passing attack, but they may fade by kickoff.
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
The Dolphins boast the best offense in football, and it's not close. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in most categories and sits as the QB2 on the year. It's full steam ahead against the Eagles in the contest with the highest over/under in Week 7.
Dolphins WRs
There's not much analysis required here either. Tyreek Hill is on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards and Jaylen Waddle is co-existing just fine. The Dolphins found themselves in a hole last week and showed an ability to score in a hurry, racking up 21 points in the second quarter. We're also back to these guys combining for outrageous target shares, including 62% this past week.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
It's a very difficult matchup for Mostert, but he's now in the "too good to move off of" category. We know the Dolphins will score and find ways to get him the ball so there's no fear in trotting him out there. Where things become intriguing is the No. 2 option. Jeff Wilson Jr. appears ready to roll. We'll wait for the official word but he was close last week and practiced in full Wednesday and Thursday. Salvon Ahmed may steal a few touches, especially in Wilson's first week back, but Wilson would be the one to look to if you need help. He's a flex option with plenty of upside.
UPDATE: Wilson practiced in full and is off the injury report. He's a strong flex option despite the matchup.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts blew the game for his team. He committed three turnovers, one of which was a brutal interception. He also failed to get first downs and hit open receivers late in the game. His 45 passing attempts were the most since 2021, signaling a desperation late in the contest and an inability to run the ball. Fortunately for fantasy, he found the end zone once on the ground and once through the air en route to a QB4 finish. It's a great matchup and they'll need to keep pace, so he's right back out there.
A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)
Brown keeps dominating week in and week out. We're running out of superlatives at this point. DeVonta Smith led the team in targets, but the production wasn't there. His target share (26%), targets per route run (22%), air yards (45%), and route participation (100%) were all ahead of Brown. It means things should break his way if the usage continues. He's on the injury report with a hamstring, but so long as he's out there, he's a top-24 receiver.
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Swift's role is absolutely incredible. He has a targets per route run of 21%, which ranks seventh among qualified backs. He's also averaging 17 rushing attempts per game. He's right there with Mostert as a must-start.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert followed up his explosion week with another good showing. He earned eight targets and averaged 8.4 yards per reception on five catches. It's a great matchup and they may lean on him more if Smith is hampered at all.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
None
Injuries:
De'Von Achane (knee)
Chris Brooks (ankle)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: 49ers -7.0
Implied Total: 49ers (25.5) vs. Vikings (18.5)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Vikings (1st)
49ers Off. DVOA: 69.0% Pass (1st), 13.4% Rush (3rd)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 11.9% Pass (16th), -13.5% Rush (24th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -18.9% Pass (2nd), -4.3% Rush (22nd)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 6.7% Pass (15th), -10.9% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
There are lots of question marks for the 49ers this week, including Deebo Samuel. He suffered a shoulder injury and could miss this one. Regardless of whether he's out there or not, Aiyuk, who has been exceeding expectations in difficult matchups, would be a top-15 receiver against the Vikings. He'd move into the top 12 if Samuel is sidelined.
UPDATE: Samuel has been ruled out for this game and at least one more, making Aiyuk a must-start.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
It was another down day for Kittle, which is understandable against the Browns. With so many injuries to the offensive weapons, he gets a boost and becomes more reliable.
Matchups We Hate:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
A dip in production and success without Justin Jefferson is reasonable, but 181 passing yards and one touchdown against the Bears is concerning. The offense really looked out of sync, and now they host the 49ers. Cousins is best avoided this week.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
The Vikings seem to have come to the same conclusion as the Rams. Cam Akers is not that good. After two weeks of the gap in snaps closing, Mattison led 45 to nine. The efficiency on the ground wasn't ideal, but the seven targets are enough to keep him in the mix. The matchup is very bad, so he'll need every target he can get to produce, but given the current landscape of tailbacks, he's still a flex option for the volume.
Other Matchups:
49ers RBs
The ambiguous title here is because we don't know what will happen with Christian McCaffrey. Obviously, he's been sidelined with an oblique injury but it's too early to know his status for Monday night. What we do know is Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason will serve as his backups, making them the potential starters if he's out. No one can say for certain which of those two will be more valuable and play more snaps, but currently, Mitchell is our favorite given his history with the team. He's a risky flex option if McCaffrey is active with a top-24 upside if he's out. Mason would become an exciting flex option if McCaffrey is inactive.
UPDATE: McCaffrey is listed as questionable for Monday's game. It's hard to gauge where his health is at. At the moment, it's best to pivot to another option unless you have Mitchell ready to go.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy finally proved to be human. It only took playing the NFL's best defense, watching one of his two star receivers go down, and losing the best running back in the league to happen. You can't completely overlook how badly he performed, but there's no reason to make a mountain out of a molehill. So long as he has one of those two playmakers back to join Kittle and Aiyuk, he's a fringe top-12 QB against Minnesota.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson led the team in every receiving category except touchdowns. He's locked in because of his elite target share.
Vikings WRs
Both Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn had 100% route participation, which is promising. They had an identical target share (17%) and targets per route run (15%) with Addison earning more downfield looks. He remains the more exciting young talent and the one to start. This week against San Francisco, they're both top-36 receivers.
Injuries:
Justin Jefferson (hamstring)
Christian McCaffrey (oblique, ribs)
Deebo Samuel (shoulder)
