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The playoffs are here and we have four baseball games today as the Wild Card round opens up our MLB postseason action. While your season-long baseball fantasy leagues are finished, there's still postseason MLB DFS and betting to cover and we intend to do that all the way through the World Series here at RotoBaller!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, October 3, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kevin Gausman OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
I suppose I am a bit predictable since my colleague Casey Wilson, who has been covering MLB DFS and bets all season with me, messages me this morning and says, "I know you're on Gausman, but who else are you betting today?"
Yeah, I love Kevin Gausman. If you have read this article much this season you'll know I have bet on him more often than most pitchers. You should also know that I bet on starters against the Twins when it comes to strikeouts.
Time to Gaus up ⛽️ @KevinGausman is our Game One starter! #NextLevel pic.twitter.com/SmZNlf01OG
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) October 2, 2023
Minnesota did trim down their K% a bit near the end of the season, but they still finished the year with the worst K% against RHP in the league at 27%. Anytime you get a pitcher of Gausman's ilk against a team that is that K-prone, you have to consider the over.
Gausman has faced the Twins twice, pitching really well in one of those outings racking up eight strikeouts, and then pitching pretty poorly in the other meeting allowing six earned runs while only whiffing four.
And while playoff baseball usually means the starters have shorter leashes, I am not sure that will be the case with some of these ace pitchers today. These teams are all hoping for six innings from their best available starter, knowing that they'll need to lean on their bullpens more often the next few games as they roll out weaker pitchers.
I like Gausman for seven strikeouts today and I think he helps carry the Blue Jays to a 1-0 series lead.
Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Here's another guy we were betting on quite often this season. And because it's the playoffs, we are getting his prop a full strikeout lower than usual, as we saw with Gausman.
The Marlins are underdogs today, but I think they have a fighting chance if they can get a quality outing out of their ace. Jesus Luzardo faced Philly twice in the regular season and pitched really well both times - allowing just five total runs over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts.
Not good numbers for Phillies stars life time against Marlins G1 starter Jesús Luzardo:
Turner - 0-8, 2K
Harper - 1-9, 5K
Bohm - 1-11, 4K
Realmuto - 1-13, 5K
Castellanos - 2-7, 4K
Schwarber - 2-9, 5K
pic.twitter.com/IuS7qTCmq7— 𝐃𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐜𝐡𝐞 (@RochesRWinners) October 2, 2023
We do like lefties against the Phillies more than righties, which makes sense since their two biggest power hitters (Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber) hit from the left side. Philly still has solid offensive numbers against southpaws, but they also have a 24.5 K% over the last two months, too. It's a bit of a boom/bust spot considering that Luzardo is HR-prone, but I think he will be amped up and throwing gas early. I also give good pitching the advantage over good hitting in the postseason. We don't even need Luzardo to dominate entirely here, we just need six strikeouts which seems well within the normal range of outcomes.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Brandon Belt OVER 0.5 total bases (-130 DraftKings)
Brandon Belt comes into today's matchup with Pablo Lopez in some really solid recent form. He has homered in his last three starts and is projected to hit second in the lineup today between George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That's a pretty sweet lineup spot for a hitter. While Belt certainly isn't what I would call a "contact hitter" at .254 this season, he is a patient one who is willing to wait for his pitch and work the count.
I love what Pablo Lopez has done this season with his strikeouts. He finished with 234 strikeouts in 194 innings. But he was also hit pretty hard when hitters did make contact. I like Belt's chances of getting a hit here off Pablo or the bullpen and we are getting some fairly decent odds as well.
Yandy Diaz OVER 1.5 hits/runs/RI (-155)
I am going to have to ignore the BvP here as it shows Yandy Diaz hitting only .188 off Montgomery over 22 plate appearances. However, one thing I did notice is that Diaz has walked five times and has not struck out once against him either. That means he is putting the ball in play quite often and eventually some positive regression is likely to come with those numbers.
Diaz is an elite contact hitter, finishing the season with a .330 average and 95 runs scored. He is an unconventional leadoff hitter in some ways since he's not a threat to steal a base. However, he finished with 173 hits and 65 walks this season. The guy is always on base. I think it's quite reasonable to expect him to find his way on base today, possibly even a few times, and either score or drive in a run in a matchup that favors the right-handed heavy Rays' lineup.
Alright, that's it today. Good luck and thanks for reading!
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