RADIO
One thing dynasty league owners have to be aware of is a bias toward a prospect that builds up due to what is known as prospect fatigue. At its base, prospect fatigue is a skewed view of a prospect due to that player being on notable prospect lists for many years or having been a well-known amateur for years before being drafted or signed by the major leagues.
If a player doesn't succeed immediately and climb quickly through the minor leagues, often the expectations that had been built around a player turn against him. This week, we're looking at a dozen players with varying levels of prospect fatigue built up, six hitters and six pitchers. Enjoy!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- wRC+ (min. 250 PA): 1. Ben Rice 183, 2. Luken Baker 178, 3. Andrew Cossetti 171, 4 (tie). Jake Cave and Christopher Familia 170.
- Doubles: 1. Coby Mayo 40, 2 (tie). Austin Shenton and Colby Thomas 38, 4 (tie). Alberto Rodriguez and Wilfred Veras 37.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Xavier Edwards, 2B/OF, Miami Marlins
The San Diego Padres drafted Edwards with the 38th overall selection in the 2018 draft. The speedy player had a very strong showing in his debut, slashing .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases in 45 games across two levels.
Edwards played across both A-ball levels in 2019, hitting .322 with 34 steals. In that offseason, the Padres included Edwards as part of the deal that brought Jake Cronenworth to San Diego. He hit .302 with 19 stolen bases in an injury-riddled season in 2021 before struggling as he attempted to tap into more power, hitting .246 for Triple-A Durham.
Edwards was traded this offseason to Miami, and he has impressive numbers in Triple-A, with a .351/.430/.458 line while playing around the infield and in center field. He's tapped into some power but also brought back his speed, with 32 stolen bases.
VERDICT: Edwards is not going to ever be a guy who fills up all the roto categories. If he ever hits double-digit home runs, it'll severely surprise even Xavier. However, he's a guy who can pass at multiple positions while providing speed for a fantasy team. He should be on your dynasty rosters.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
There may not have been a more-hyped player signed in the Latin America market than Dominguez when the Yankees inked him for $5.1 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2019. That hype was magnified when Dominguez couldn't play a competitive game in 2020 while showing his impressive raw tools at instructionals.
Dominguez showed up in 2021 to complex ball looking more like some sort of bodybuilding model than a baseball player, and he struggled with plenty of swing and miss. He began an overhaul of his body, leaning down and working his body to become a better overall player. That led to a .273/.376/.461 line across three levels with 16 home runs and 37 stolen bases.
The 2023 spring training reports were even better on Dominguez's conditioning and work on his strike zone judgment. Then, he came out and struggled to a .197/.345/.357 line through June 30. Something switched on when the calendar changed to July, though, as Jasson has slashed .350/.419/.512 since, showing off his athleticism with 20 steals and earning a promotion to Triple-A.
VERDICT: Those who quickly jumped off the bus in 2021 are going to look silly very soon. Dominguez may not be a 40/40 threat like was rumored when he was signed, but he should be an asset in all five roto categories and is one of the top 25 prospects in dynasty baseball, with an expected arrival time in the Big Apple as soon as Opening Day 2024.
Wenceel Perez, 2B/OF, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers signed Perez in 2016 for $550,000 out of the Dominican Republic. After an impressive season in the DSL in 2017, an 18-year-old Wenceel worked his way all the way to full-season ball, slashing .312/.363/.429 across three levels in 2018, rocketing all the way to the top 100 of multiple lists. He struggled through a full year at Single-A, slashing .233/.299/.314, only successful on 62% of his steal attempts, despite plus speed.
Perez took the pandemic season to really work on his approach and reads on the field. He spent 2021 working on those instincts, moving to second base defensively. He then found his bat the focus of his improvement in 2022, slashing .295/.369/.534 with 47 extra-base hits and 18/23 steals.
This year, Perez has worked his way all the way up to Triple-A, slashing .284/.377/.429 and handling second and center field defensively. He may not have a definite defensive home, but he can certainly provide speed and strong contact rates.
VERDICT: Perez may not be a guy that takes over any one position, but he could be a guy that fills in up the middle with strong speed numbers. He's a worthy roster in deep dynasty leagues but wait on him in your redraft league until he has a stable MLB position.
Rece Hinds, Cincinnati Reds
After nailing some of the most impressive home runs in the 2018 high school showcase circuit, Hinds was selected in the second round of the 2019 draft by the Reds. He only got a few plate appearances in before the end of his draft season in the Reds system and then missed the pandemic 2020 season.
Hinds returned in 2021 and opened in complex ball. Attempting to stick at third base, his defensive struggles bled to the plate, as he struggled with contact. Hinds moved to right field to utilize his plus arm and struggled with similar issues with contact, but he began to actualize his power as the 2022 season came to a close.
Hinds has spent the entire 2023 season in Double-A, hitting .275/.339/.550 with 21 home runs and 18 stolen bases in a very pitching-friendly league. He's also seen his strikeout rate drop since June 1, dropping his rate to a manageable 27% while walking 10% of his plate appearances.
VERDICT: Though Hinds is a playable right fielder, he's still a below-average fielder with a big arm. His bat has come a long way though, and he has plus power that could definitely play. With this production in the upper minors, Hinds should be on the radar in deep dynasty leagues, but he needs to have a spot to play defensively before investing in shallow dynasty or redraft.
Jud Fabian, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Highly regarded as one of the most talented college players in the nation in 2020 at the University of Florida but still a year away from draft eligibility, many figured Fabian would be one of the top draft picks in 2021, but he struggled to a .249/.364/.560 line with 20 home runs. The Red Sox took a gamble on Fabian with a second-round pick, but Fabian gambled on himself and returned to school.
The gamble didn't really pay off as Fabian slashed .239/.414/.598 with 24 home runs in 2022 for the Gators. The Orioles selected him, again in the second round, getting him to sign for the slot money. He shot up the O's system, reaching High-A in his pro debut, slashing .333/.455/.615 with a 19/21 BB/K over 99 plate appearances.
Fabian opened the season in High-A Aberdeen, where he showed his impressive raw tools. He has struggled since his promotion to Double-A, but on the season, he's posted 21 home runs and 29 stolen bases while playing strong defensive outfield.
VERDICT: Unfortunately, Fabian's surge this season has also come with a 33% strikeout rate. The defense and raw tools are fun, but Fabian still needs to bring down the whiff rate before he's considered for shallow dynasty leagues. He should definitely be owned in deep dynasties though.
Dustin Harris, Texas Rangers
The Oakland Athletics selected Harris in the 11th round of the 2019 draft out of JuCo in Florida. He hit very well in his pro debut, slashing .325/.403/.407 and showing off impressive speed. The A's then traded Harris as one of the players to be named later for lefty Mike Minor during the 2020 season.
Harris immediately made Oakland regret their decision, slashing .327/.401/.542 with 20 home runs and 25 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). This led to Harris popping up on multiple top 100 lists before 2022. He spent the 2022 season in Double-A but struggled to a .257/.346/.471 line with 17 home runs and 19 stolen bases.
Harris has put up similar contact numbers this year but significantly improved his walk rate while showing usable power and surprising speed. He has primarily played left field this season but has also worked at third and first.
VERDICT: Harris has the power/speed to consider and is having success now in Triple-A, but without a sure defensive position, it's hard to suggest Harris is rostered in redraft or shallow dynasty leagues. However, he should be owned in all deep or mid-sized dynasty leagues.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- WHIP (Min. 70 IP): 1. Christian Scott 0.86, 2. Aidan Curry 0.93, 3. Hancel Rincon 0.96.
- Innings pitched: 1. Reid VanScoter 136 2/3, 2. Mitch Spence 133 1/3, 3. Richard Fitts 131, 4. Drew Thorpe 130.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Kai-Wei Teng, SP, San Francisco Giants
The Minnesota Twins signed the burly (6'4", 250+ pounds) Teng out of Taiwan in October 2017. He pitched well in his pro debut in 2018 in the Florida complex league, then was off to an incredible start with the Twins' Single-A club when he was part of the return the Giants received for reliever Sam Dyson.
Teng rocketed up the Giants' rankings after continuing his impressive performance over the final month of the season with the Giants' Single-A team, finishing with a combined 1.58 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 79 2/3 innings, posting an 88/21 K/BB ratio. He struggled to keep up his conditioning during the pandemic, and while he saw an added tick of velocity, he struggled to come up with a consistent release point, allowing his stuff to be hit hard.
The 2022 season in Double-A was more of the same, as Teng struck out 169 over 136 1/3 innings, but struggles with control (85 walks, 18 hit batsmen, 22 wild pitches) led to a 5.22 ERA. This year has seen better control of the long ball, but continued issues with command of his mid-90s fastball and excellent change to go with two average-ish breaking balls.
VERDICT: Teng's got the raw stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, but his control issues may portend a move to the bullpen. The strikeouts are enticing, but let him be until the Giants can get him controlling the ball or move him to the bullpen.
Jared Jones, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted the California prep arm in the second round of the 2020 draft. After turning heads and being projected as a fast riser among draftees when he pitched at instructs, Jones struggled in his pro debut in Single-A in 2021, striking out 103 over 66 innings, but he walked more than 11% of hitters.
Jones continued to struggle with control in 2022 in High-A, walking 9.6% of hitters while also uncorking 11 wild pitches and hitting 10 batters. That led to Jones "aiming" often, which led to his pitches leaving the yard at a much higher rate than one would assume with Jones' raw stuff.
Jones has truly learned how to work as a pitcher instead of a thrower in 2023. He still works in the upper-90s with his fastball and uncorks two fringe plus breaking pitches, but he's learned to distinguish the two breakers out of hand and even alter the shape of his slider, showing a sharp slider and one with sleeping action along with a downer curve. He's worked up to Triple-A this season, though he has struggled with some "aiming" after the promotion to the top minor league level.
VERDICT: Jones just turned 22 earlier this month and has shown impressive power stuff at the highest minor league level already. While he may not be an ace, Jones has the ability to profile as a high-strikeout mid-rotation arm or an elite bullpen arm, so he should be rostered in everything but the shallowest dynasty leagues.
Joey Estes, SP, Oakland Athletics
Part of an impressive haul of high schoolers late in the 2019 draft, the Atlanta Braves were able to sign Estes away from Long Beach State after selecting him in the 16th round. In 2021, Estes was dominant in Single-A, posting a 2.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 99 innings, posting a 127/29 K/BB. This led to Estes sneaking onto multiple top 100 lists.
The Braves shipped Estes to Oakland as part of the Matt Olson deal in March 2022. Estes battled injury in 2022, posting a 4.55 ERA over 91 innings at High-A. This season, he's regained his previous form, pitching across Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 121/39 K/BB over 124 innings.
Estes' fastball is his best pitch, working around 93-95 with plenty of action that he aggressively pounds the zone with, pairing the heater with an average mid-80s slider and also a fringe-average change. He has a repeatable, simple delivery.
VERDICT: Estes may not profile as a frontline guy, but he should be a consistent backend starter who can help fantasy teams. Deep and mid-sized dynasties should own Estes, with shallow leagues quick to pick him up if he starts to look like he'll be called up soon.
Bryce Jarvis, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
It's hard to have a better draft season than Bryce Jarvis did, even in the brief 2020 season. He posted a perfect game in one of his four starts before the pandemic shut down the season and was among college leaders in most pitching statistics. The Diamondbacks picked the son of former big league pitcher Kevin Jarvis with the 18th overall selection in the draft.
Jarvis jumped up to Double-A in his pro debut in 2021, showing excellent strikeout stuff, whiffing 89 in 75 1/3 innings, but also posting a rough 5.66 ERA after his Double-A promotion. He returned to Double-A Amarillo in 2022, allowing an absurd 27 home runs in 106 2/3 innings and posting an 8.27 ERA.
Jarvis worked to build back up some of his value this season in Triple-A, but he was again pitching at an extreme hitters' park, leading to a 5.26 ERA across 102 2/3 innings in Double-A and Triple-A. He was recently promoted to the majors and pitched out of the bullpen in a multi-inning role.
VERDICT: Unfortunately, Jarvis has faced two of the worst parks in the minors for pitchers in the last two years. That's covered up his strong mid-rotation pitch mix. His control is not as sharp as it was in college, and that's hurt him. If he can show even average control, his raw stuff would play in the middle of a big-league rotation. Leave him alone until he can bump up that control.
Jackson Rutledge, SP, Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals selected the 6'8" Rutledge from junior college with the 17th overall selection in 2019. He then had an excellent pro debut, tossing 37 1/3 innings and reaching Single-A, striking out 39 and posting a 3.13 ERA.
After the pandemic, Rutledge struggled significantly with control and command, leading to forcing pitches into the strike zone, which took away all of the natural movement on the pitches and led to plenty of contact and 20 walks in 36 1/3 innings. He tried to get back underway in 2022, posting a 99/29 K/BB over 97 1/3 innings at Single-A.
Rutledge was pushed up to Double-A and has posted decent ERA numbers, but his walk rate has ballooned again and he's allowed plenty of hard contact. He's got a strong pitch mix when he can sync up his long limbs, but he struggles with that frequently.
VERDICT: Four average-or-better pitches should lead to an excellent starter profile, but Rutledge's control struggles may lead him to a bullpen role, where he could be dominant. Leave him be for right now until he's either moved to the 'pen or he figures out his control.
Will Dion, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Drafted in 2021 out of McNeese State by Cleveland in the ninth round, lefty Dion was among a tremendous draft class that many felt could work in the Guardians' pitching development system and move quickly to the majors. The assumption wasn't wrong, as Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee have already shown their value in the Cleveland rotation.
Dion's best asset on the mound is his control, which is plus from the left side. He works with a low-90s fastball and has a fringe-plus change, working in a pair of fringe-average breakers. He used that to post an incredible 2.11 ERA across A-ball levels in 2022, posting a 157/34 K/BB over 128 innings.
This year, Dion has continued to perform between High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 98 innings with a 103/33 K/BB ratio.
VERDICT: Maybe Dion hasn't exactly seen the success of Williams or Bibee, but he's been exceptional for what he is. Keeping expectations correct - a backend starter – will make rostering him in deep dynasties fruitful in the end. He could always show more next year and be worthy of a roster spot in shallower dynasty leagues at that point.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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