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Dan's fantasy baseball waiver wire advice for Wins and starting pitchers. Top MLB free agent SPs to pickup off waivers for the fantasy baseball stretch run.
At this point in the fantasy baseball season, managers are fine-tuning their teams and looking for the right player to help out down the stretch. With the trade deadline in the rearview, the only place to turn is the waiver wire. It is slim pickings by now for managers looking for help in the wins category, but help can be found if a few guidelines are kept in mind.
Wins are a difficult stat to predict since they involve other factors beyond the pitcher’s performance. When weeding through what is left on the wire, we must also consider the quality of a pitcher’s offense, the reliability of his bullpen, and the strength of his opponent(s). A quick assessment of these basic factors is a good way to narrow your focus onto starters with favorable situations that will improve the chances of a win.
RotoBaller’s Starting Pitcher Schedule Projection Tool is a great place to find pitchers’ upcoming scheduled matchups as well as a projection of their next 14 starts. It is a good starting point when evaluating the viability of a potential addition. Are you looking for a pitcher who can contribute to the wins category? Read on for five suggestions that might still be available in your league.
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Top Fantasy Baseball Wins Candidates
Hyun Jin Ryu - Toronto Blue Jays (47% rostered)
Since returning to the Blue Jays rotation on August 1, Hyun Jin Ryu has looked like his old self again. After his first four starts, Ryu has a 2-1 record and a 1.89 ERA. In Ryu’s previous three starts, the Blue Jays have outscored the other side 24-8.
They shouldn’t have trouble getting on the board against his upcoming opponents, either. Toronto’s bullpen knows how to keep a lead safe. As a group, they lead the league in saves, runs allowed, and WHIP.
Next on deck for Ryu are two winnable matchups against the cellar-dwelling Rockies and A’s. Managers sticking with him beyond that should be aware that the Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are teams that hit well against left-handed pitching.
Logan Allen - Cleveland Guardians (45% rostered)
In his debut season, Logan Allen has maintained a 3.31 ERA so far and his advanced stats have fallen in line with MLB averages across the board.
Cleveland’s offense has scored the third-fewest runs in the league so far this year. It will be incumbent on Allen to continue suppressing runs himself before turning the game over to the bullpen and All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase.
The matchups against Tampa Bay and Texas look intimidating, but his other projected starts have appeal. Baltimore might look more threatening if not for the fact that Allen’s best game of the season came against them on May 29.
Minnesota, Cincinnati, and San Francisco rank among the five offenses with the most strikeouts, and their respective team batting averages are .240, .248, and .239.
Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers (45% rostered)
Tarik Skubal rejoined the Tigers rotation on July 4 after missing the first half of the year rehabilitating from flexor tendon surgery performed last August. In his time back, he has gone 3-2 with a WHIP of 1.08 and a K/BB ratio of 6.25. In other words, he is capable of putting himself in a position to win so long as his teammates get his back.
The Tigers have one of the least productive offenses in the league but Riley Greene and company will face some soft pitching in the matchups projected for Skubal, bettering their chances of providing the run support he will need for a win.
Skubal has possible starts against the White Sox (twice), Reds, A’s, and Royals, giving him one of the most tantalizing schedules between now and the end of the season.
Zack Littell - Tampa Bay Rays (19% rostered)
Zack Littell has only started eight games this season. With the Rays' pitching staff picked apart by injuries, he figures to stick in the rotation. In his last five appearances (all starts), Littell has a 3.54 ERA and allowed opponents an OBP of just .266.
Tampa has a top-five offense that averages 5.36 runs scored per game, offering the team’s starters a nice cushion before handing off to the bullpen.
Littell has a promising matchup against the Guardians’ struggling offense next. After that, Littell is projected to start against the Red Sox, Twins, Orioles, Angels, and Blue Jays.
Those offenses have their bright spots, but the Rays can keep pace with them all. Littell's best chances at a win come in the games against Cleveland, Minnesota, and Los Angeles.
Adrian Houser - Milwaukee Brewers (8% rostered)
Adrian Houser’s stat line is not very inviting to managers looking for help as the season draws down, but his upcoming schedule offers room for improvement. He is backed by a young offense that struggles to generate runs but the team’s bullpen is one of the most reliable in the league.
As a group, they are holding opponents to a .225 batting average. With Joel Payamps and Devin Williams, they have arguably the league's best one-two punch to close out games.
After Houser gets past Philadelphia, he is projected to face the bottom-tier offenses of Pittsburgh, Miami, and Washington, followed by series against St. Louis and Chicago. Five of Houser’s last seven projected starts come at home where his splits heavily lean in his favor.
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