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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Sunday, August 6th, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Today looks like a fun day for strikeout props as we have a solid group of high-end starters on the slate and a number of good matchups for these K artists. Since I like more than a handful of pitcher props, I will toss out more of those than usual, but I always save at least one prop for the bats, too, don't worry!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, August 6, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets! (Note, some odds are from FanDuel today in addition to my usual DraftKings picks).
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 FanDuel)
We target strikeout pitchers against the Twins. It's that simple. Yeah, I know Minnesota just waxed the D-Backs 12-1 last night and that they are top-5 offense against RHP in terms of offensive production. But the strikeouts are still there as they continue to lead baseball in K% against RHP.
Gallen has not been his dominant self lately, but he has still been pretty good. And despite the fact that he's allowing some runs across the plate, he's still been pitching into the sixth and seventh innings quite often. I have him projected for over eight strikeouts today and I think as long as he doesn't make an early exit, he gets there. So if he gives up a few runs early, don't panic! He can still cross the finish line by picking up strikeouts in later innings.
Luis Medina OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-110 FanDuel)
This is probably my favorite prop on the board and I had to go over to FanDuel to find it since DK doesn't have this game posted yet.
I wrote about Medina and a few other pitchers who have turned their seasons around (Matz pitched well again yesterday, Taillon on Thursday) in this article. Read it if you haven't already!
Medina has been absolutely awesome over his last four starts with a K% near 30% and a SwStr% of around 16%. He gets a Giants team today that has been trending down offensively with just an 80 wRC+ against righties over the last month and a 26% K% as well. I have Medina for six strikeouts today, so don't hesitate to run him up the ladder a few rungs on FanDuel using alternate K props!
Carlos Rodon UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (+125 DraftKings)
Yes, I know that I give out more overs than unders, but here is one that I like today and it's plus money. Everyone keeps waiting for the version of Carlos Rodon that we have seen over the last few years to show up for the Yankees, but I am sure he is coming to save their playoff hopes. Rodon has been laboring through starts since returning from an injury that kept him out half the season. He has a 15% walk rate and is striking out just 18% of batters. He can't seem to dial in his control and his stuff just simply hasn't been as sharp. He has more than five strikeouts just once in five starts, so I am not sure why I would pick him to get six here against Houston, a team that strikes out just 18% of the time.
Kyle Bradish OVER 17.5 outs (-155 DraftKings)
I couldn't quite make the math work today to talk myself into Bradish's K prop that is set to 5.5 strikeouts, but the over is plus money and I still might bet it just because I like the guy so much. But the safer bet here is outs, which we bet last Tuesday successfully (if you remember) as Bradish tossed seven solid innings in a win over the Blue Jays.
That now makes seven straight starts of six innings or more for Bradish, and the slumping Mets are a team I want to continue to target with pitchers down the stretch. I see Bradish giving us at least six solid innings again today and being positioned well for the win (+130) if you want to take a shot there as well.
Tyler Glasnow to record a win (-105 DraftKings)
I have Glasnow projected for over eight strikeouts today against Detroit, right there with Zac Gallen as the highest on the slate. However, Glasnow's strikeout prop is set to 8.5 a full two strikeouts higher. But this matchup against Detroit is so good that I still want to get some exposure to it through his win probability.
Glasnow is in excellent form right now. He's allowed just six earned runs total over his last five starts, picking up three wins in the process. He's pitched seven innings in three straight starts and has looked absolutely dominant. He shouldn't need too much run support here to be in position for a win, and his offense should be able to scratch out enough runs against a mediocre Detroit pitcher Matt Manning. The Rays are -205 on the money line today (a 67% win probability), so getting Glasnow to win at almost even odds feels like a nice price.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
T.J. Friedl OVER 1.5 total bases (+115 DraftKings)
The Reds are one of the teams that I want to target for offense today. They face Jake Irvin of the Nationals, a guy who has been very hittable this season and who is also fly-ball prone. That's not going to work out well for a pitcher in Great American Ballpark and Friedl is my pick to do some damage here (though I like Joey Votto quite a bit, too).
T.J. hit a three-run bomb yesterday and matches up well here against Irvin who throughs mainly his fastball and curveball to lefties. I think we see the Reds score in bunches today and Friedl is likely to be in on the action.
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