Florio's Bullpen Report - Changes With the Phillies, A's, Angels Pen (Week 5)

1 year ago by Michael Florio

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2. Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball

3. Elite Strikeouts and Ratios

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5. More Fantasy Baseball Advice

Every week in the bullpen report, I go over bullpens that have had some clear changes, some that may be changing, and then some non-closers that are worth picking up in fantasy baseball. The closers tend to get all the hype in fantasy baseball. Sometimes picking up an elite non-closer, especially if they are in a bullpen without a clear-cut closer, could be the best pickup of all.

Last week, the top non-closer recommended pickup was Jose Alvarado. In the last week, he has picked up three saves, looks like the lockdown closer in Philly, and was the top reliever to grab off the waiver wire. I am not above taking a humble brag! But the point is anytime you see a reliever that is dominating like Alvarado was, it's worth at least considering picking them up. And if he pitches in a bullpen with a shaky closer -- or on a team without a set option for the ninth -- pick them up. At the worst, you can drop them off a couple of weeks later. At best, they become closer and you have them for way cheaper if you waited.

That is the other lesson from this article. It is never a bad idea to churn and burn some potential closers as long as you have the roster spot and are not using much FAAB to do so. I love spending five percent or less, often less, on potential closers in waiting. Most don’t stick, but when they do, it allows you to get saves without investing high-end draft capital or a ton of FAAB like the rest of your league mates.

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

I talked about the Phillies changing the bullpen at the start of the article, but Jose Alvarado has taken over as the closer here. In the last week, he has picked up three saves. He leads all relievers with a 56 percent strikeout rate and has a 0.48 WHIP to go along with a 0.87 ERA. And the best part is he has yet to allow a walk. He was the top waiver wire pickup last week. If he is somehow still out there in your league, be prepared to be very aggressive to nab him this week.

Coming into the year, it looked like the Twins had a closer committee between Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez. Each got a save in the first week of the season, which only seemed to confirm that thinking. However, all the save chances have gone to Duran since then. On the season, he has five saves to Lopez’s one. Duran should be universally rostered, while Lopez remains a rock-solid handcuff option who can provide very strong ratios. He can be rostered in Roto formats as well.

The Angels are a full-out committee between Jose Quijada and Carlos Estevez. On the season, Quijada leads them with four saves while Estevez has three. The last save went to Estevez, but that was a day after Quijada got rocked, allowing five runs in his save chance. Quijada has pitched to a 5.19 ERA, 5.38 xERA, and 0.92 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate.

Compare that to Estevez, who has a 1.80 ERA, 3.37 xERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 25 percent strikeout rate. Estevez has been the more effective pitcher. While both are getting save chances, I will go with the option of getting better results. Estevez is the top option, but Quijada is worth rostering in Roto formats as long as he is getting save chances.

The Cubs have two saves on the season with Brad Boxberger getting one and Michael Fulmer the other. The issue is they don’t get enough chances to figure it out. In the last week, they have each struggled with both having an ERA over 16. Fulmer has the better swing-and-miss stuff as well as more recent closer experience. Because of that, I have a slight lean toward Fulmer. However, they both are best suited for deeper Roto formats. I would recommend rostering both there, but both can remain on the waiver wire in head-to-head formats where you only need two relievers.

The Rockies have closer Daniel Bard back but he has yet to pick up a save. They have eased Bard back in so far in his two outings, but he has yet to allow a run and has a 0.50 WHIP with a 29 percent strikeout rate. He’s still looking like the Bard of old. He should quickly regain his spot as the Rockies' closer and be universally rostered. Pierce Johnson remains the handcuff should Bard miss any time.

Earlier in the season, Carl Edwards Jr. picked up a save for the Nationals and everyone in the fantasy baseball community wondered if he was the closer. It is a good lesson not to overreact to one save opportunity. Kyle Finnegan has picked up four saves for the Nationals. Despite him having a near 9.00 ERA and Edwards below 1.00, Finnegan is the top option for fantasy purposes. However, this is certainly a situation to keep a close eye on. If Finnegan blows another save, Edwards could see more opportunities.

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball

The A’s picked up two saves in the last week and both went to Jeurys Familia. The thinking for Oakland coming into the season was that saves would largely go to Dany Jimenez or Trevor May, but here we are with them going to Familia. He has pitched to over a 5.00 ERA this season. As long as he is getting save chances, he is worth rostering in Roto formats. I would recommend him in anything over 12-team leagues. He can be left on the waiver wire in head-to-head leagues that only use two relievers.

The White Sox have a set closer with Reynaldo Lopez picking up all three saves for them this season. He has struggled to pitch, as he has an 8.38 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. However, he is not the long-term solution here. Liam Hendriks is cancer-free and already throwing in Arizona. He is working his way toward a rehab outing. The beauty of relievers is they do not need time to build up their arms like a starter. So we could quickly see Hendriks back and close soon. Now is the time to add him if he remains out there on the waiver wire.

The Mets have a straightforward bullpen despite not having a set ninth-inning arm. The eighth and ninth innings will be pitched by David Robertson and Adam Ottavino . It's just not a lock that one will get the save chance. So far, Robertson has picked up four saves while Ottavino has three. Both provide strong ratios as well. While Robertson is the option the Mets seem to trust more, that at times leads to him pitching against the heart of the opponent's order in a setup role. Robertson is the preferred option, but both are worth rostering in Roto leagues deeper than 10 teams.

Andrew Chafin is the best reliever in the Diamondbacks' bullpen, but he has struggled as of late. In the last week, he blew a save and pitched to an 11.57 ERA. In that span, Miguel Castro picked up a save. Chafin is still the top option to roster in fantasy, but Castro is a speculative add for those in deeper Roto formats.

The Royals have a full-out committee. They have only picked up three saves this season with two going to Scott Barlow and one to Aroldis Chapman. Barlow has an 8.22 ERA, 6.05 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP with a 28 percent strikeout rate. Compare that to Chapman, who has a 1.00 ERA, 1.19 xERA, 0.67 WHIP, and a 47 percent strikeout rate. Chapman has been the better pitcher and is the one I prefer to roster in fantasy. But as long as Barlow is getting save chances as well, he is in play in deeper Roto leagues.

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios

Giovanny Gallegos is not the Cardinals' closer, but he does have a save already and would be next in line should anything happen to Ryan Helsley. So far this season, Gallegos has pitched to a 0.00 ERA, 1.75 xERA, and 0.27 WHIP with a 46 percent strikeout rate -- the fourth-highest among relievers. He is the top non-closer on the roster. His teammate Genesis Cabrera can be on the radar for those in deep leagues. He has pitched to a 3.38 ERA, 2.82 xERA, and 0.88 WHIP with a 43 percent strikeout rate. He can provide ratios and is third in line for saves in this pen.

Yennier Cano has not allowed a run or base runner in seven innings this season and already has picked up a save. He has pitched to a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 xERA, and 0.00 WHIP with a 45 percent strikeout rate -- the fifth-highest among relievers. That is truly elite production. He can greatly help your current ratios and may even get the occasional save. Add him if you need a reliever. His teammate Bryan Baker has a 2.25 ERA, 1.97 xERA, 0.67 WHIP, and a 36 percent strikeout rate. He can provide ratios for those in deeper Roto formats.

Matt Brash would be next in line for saves in Seattle should anything happen to Paul Sewald (while Andres Munoz is sidelined). While he has a gaudy 5.59 ERA, all the indicators are much better like his 2.52 xERA or 2.23 SIERA. He has also struck out 43 percent of the batters he has faced -- the seventh-highest among relievers.

Mark Leiter Jr. has pitched to a 2.16 ERA, 4.62 xERA, and 1.20 WHIP with a 42 percent strikeout rate. He also pitches in a bullpen that has two closer options -- both of whom are struggling early on. The ratios are not quite what you would hope when talking about elite ratio relievers. Nonetheless, he could get save chances in this pen, which helps prop up his fantasy value.

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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