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The 2023 NFL Draft is less than 10 days away, and the rumor mill is on fire. Most of the conversation has been about the No. 1 overall pick and which quarterbacks will come off the board in the top five.
However, there have been several other storylines over the past few weeks. How many wide receivers will go in the first round? Could three tight ends come off the board inside the top 25? Will Jalen Carter be a top-10 pick?
Nothing will get settled until the 2023 NFL Draft gets here. However, fantasy players are more concerned with what comes after the NFL Draft: rookie drafts. With only a few weeks until the dynasty fantasy football world starts its rookie drafts, I did a 10-team four-round mock base on half-point PPR scoring with a superflex spot.
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Round 1
- 1.01 – Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)
- 1.02 – Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)
- 1.03 – C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)
- 1.04 – Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
- 1.05 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
- 1.06 – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama)
- 1.07 – Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)
- 1.08 – Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)
- 1.09 – Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
- 1.10 – Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)
There is no reason why Robinson shouldn’t be the 1.01 pick in every rookie draft, regardless if it’s superflex or not. The Texas star is such an elite prospect that many dynasty rankings have already made him the RB1 before stepping foot in the NFL. The Longhorn superstar had just under 1,900 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns last season. More importantly, Robinson has been the top running back in college football over the past few years, drawing comparisons to LaDainian Tomlinson.
While Robinson has been the clear-cut 1.01 pick all offseason, the first quarterback drafted has been all over the board. Young started the offseason as the favorite to go first overall. After the Carolina Panthers traded up, Stroud became the favorite. However, all signs point to the Alabama star becoming a Panther. Young should be the first quarterback drafted in rookie drafts after totaling 8,200 passing yards and 79 touchdowns over the past two years.
The one wild card at the top of the first round is Richardson. He has significant upside but also limited production in college. The former Gator had a historic NFL Combine performance, including running a 4.43 40-yard dash. While some scouts believe Richardson needs a year to develop from the sidelines, fantasy players hope he sees the field as a rookie. His rushing potential could lead to a massive fantasy season in 2023.
Round 2
- 2.01 – Jalin Hyatt (WR – Tennessee)
- 2.02 – Zach Charbonnet (RB – UCLA)
- 2.03 – Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee)
- 2.04 – Roschon Johnson (RB – Texas)
- 2.05 – Devon Achane (RB – Texas A&M)
- 2.06 – Josh Downs (WR – North Carolina)
- 2.07 – Zach Evans (RB – Ole Miss)
- 2.08 – Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
- 2.09 – Tyjae Spears (RB – Tulane)
- 2.10 – Cedric Tillman (WR – Tennessee)
While most of the pre-draft talk has been about the top four quarterbacks, Hooker has worked his way into the first-round mix. The Volunteer quarterback suffered a torn ACL late last season but reportedly should be ready for Week 1. More than likely, Hooker won’t land in a situation that will allow him to start as a rookie. However, he could become a late first-round rookie draft pick, depending on which team picks him.
One of the top risers over the past several weeks has been Johnson. The Longhorns running back is vastly underrated, partly because of who he shared the backfield with at Texas. However, Johnson is one of my favorite running back targets this year. Despite only playing running back for a few years, Johnson averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt in college. Meanwhile, he has the size and physicality to become one of the better goal-line running backs in the NFL.
Tillman is a big-body player, unlike most of the wide receivers in the draft class. While Hyatt has gotten most of the hype out of the Tennessee wide receiver duo, Tillman was the more productive player over the past two years. Tillman had 101 receptions for 1,498 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns over his final 18 college games. The Tennessee wide receiver could rise up rookie draft boards depending on where he gets drafted.
Round 3
- 3.01 – Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah)
- 3.02 – Tank Bigsby (RB – Auburn)
- 3.03 – Marvin Mims (WR – Oklahoma)
- 3.04 – Kendre Miller (RB – TCU)
- 3.05 – Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia)
- 3.06 – Rashee Rice (WR – SMU)
- 3.07 – Israel Abanikanda (RB – Pittsburgh)
- 3.08 – Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)
- 3.09 – Chase Brown (RB – Illinois)
- 3.10 – Sean Tucker (RB – Syracuse)
Unfortunately, Kincaid hasn’t been able to partake in much of the pre-draft process because of a back injury he suffered late last season. While the injury hurt his NFL Draft stock, the Utah star still could be the first tight end drafted at the end of the month. Doctors declared Kincaid clear of the injury. He had a terrific final year at Utah, totaling 70 receptions for 890 receiving yards, finishing top 10 in the PAC-12 in both categories. Kincaid is a steal if he slides into the third round of rookie drafts.
While most of the pre-draft conversation has been about the 4-5 potential first-round wide receivers, Mims could become a steal on draft day. Mims is built similarly to another former Oklahoma wide receiver, Marquise Brown. However, Mims is arguably a more explosive prospect, posing an 89 percentile grade or better in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump. He could make an impact right away in the NFL.
After his impressive performance at the 2023 NFL Combine, Washington is a likely first-round NFL Draft pick. However, tight ends tend to get pushed down the draft board during rookie drafts unless your name is Kyle Pitts. Washington had a limited receiving role at Georgia because of Brock Bowers. Yet, the Bulldog tight end has massive potential in the NFL once given a healthy target share.
Round 4
- 4.01 – Luke Musgrave (TE – Oregon State)
- 4.02 – Tanner McKee (QB – Stanford)
- 4.03 – Evan Hull (RB – Northwestern)
- 4.04 – Jonathan Mingo (WR – Ole Miss)
- 4.05 – Tucker Kraft (TE – South Dakota State)
- 4.06 – DeWayne McBride (RB – UAB)
- 4.07 – Deuce Vaughn (RB – Kansas State)
- 4.08 – Michael Wilson (WR – Stanford)
- 4.09 – Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB – UCLA)
- 4.10 – Sam LaPorta (TE – Iowa)
The most exciting part of rookie drafts is the final round. That’s where fantasy players find the diamonds in the rough. One of my favorite later-round running back targets is Hull. He had an impressive performance during the Senior Bowl week. Then, Hull stood out at the NFL Combine, taking the ball to the house on every rep of every drill. While he will likely be a Day 3 selection, don’t be surprised if Hull turns into this year’s Isiah Pacheco.
Last year’s draft class had several talented wide receiver prospects at the top but lacked Day 3 depth. However, that’s not the case this year. Wilson had a quiet career at Stanford, totaling 26 receptions for 418 yards in 2022. Yet, he’s made the most of the pre-draft process. Wilson had a productive week of practice at the Senior Bowl week. More importantly, he made several impressive catches during the game.
While three tight ends could get drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, the depth this year at the position is incredible. One of my favorite middle-round tight ends is LaPorta. Despite playing on a limited Iowa offense, the tight end had 111 receptions for 1,327 receiving yards over the past two years. Furthermore, he can run, posting a 4.59 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, the third-fastest among tight ends.
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