Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buy Lows (Post Free Agency)

April 18, 2023

Chris Gregory takes a look at players to buy low in dynasty leagues at the end of the free agency period and suggests the offers to make to secure these assets.

Approximately one month ago, we offered you a list of players worth targeting in dynasty before NFL free agency. As we addressed at that time, those players were the types who stood to gain value thanks to projected off-season moves. Examples included Alexander Mattison gaining landing a starting job, Michael Pittman Jr. getting a new (and accurate) quarterback, and Malik Willis serving as a long-term stash in Superflex formats after an atrocious rookie year tanked his stock.

Fast forward to today, and some things have changed. Other things remain in limbo, however. Mattison is a key example. While the Boise State product didn't sign elsewhere, he did return to an offense he knows in Minnesota. He could also still earn a starting job if rumors of the Vikings trading or cutting Dalvin Cook prove true. So, many unknowns still surround his value, meaning he remains a buy-low candidate depending on the price.

With all that in mind, it makes sense for us to refresh these dynasty values now that so many players have changed teams and NFL Draft plans have been altered. Below you will find another list of players you should consider buying low on in dynasty now that some offseason moves have been finalized. A few of these names are repeats from our pre-free agency list, but we strove to limit repeats in the interest of getting more diversity on this list. Note: Proposed trade values below will be in terms of rookie draft picks for this year (2023). This is the easiest commodity to use when projecting dynasty trade values because it is a universal commodity that all dynasty managers have.

Quarterbacks to Buy Post-Free Agency

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

With John Lynch’s public endorsement of Brock Purdy after “successful” UCL surgery, Lance's perpetually negative media and fan perception is at an all-time low. That's why he remains a terrific buy-low option. Lance can still win the long-term starting job for the 49ers, which Kyle Shanahan stated while tempering expectations for Purdy’s health two weeks ago. There’s also a nearly 100% chance some other team will give Lance a real opportunity if San Fran doesn’t.

For those who think Lance is a proven bust after just four starts, try comparing his stats against those of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence through their first four starts. Lance leads that group (or ties for the lead) in YPA, rushing yards, total TDs, fewest turnovers, and fewest sacks. He tops both Fields and Allen in comp. % and passing yards, too. While none of that means Lance is a surefire star, it suggests there is potential worth investing in.

Offer in Superflex: Pick 1.10

Offer in Non-Superflex: Early 3^rd-round pick

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts

Going into this draft season, the Colts were the most likely team to trade up and draft Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. Now, there is a good chance the Colts won’t be able to draft either, forcing them to consider passing on the position altogether. While I suspect they will end up sitting tight and taking Will Levis, neither Levis nor Anthony Richardson is a ready-made prospect, and both could benefit from learning on the bench for a while.

Assuming Young and Stroud are off the board when Indy picks, there is a strong chance Minshew will start multiple games this season. If the Colts aren’t high on Richardson or Levis and they pass on QB altogether, Minshew will likely start all year. If they do draft Levis or Richardson, Minshew could still see multiple starts. Remember that Shane Steichen's last two teams drafted “project” quarterbacks early and went into the season with those rookies as backups.

Offer in Superflex: 4th-round pick

Offer in Non-Superflex: No Value

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Two years ago, Stafford was coming off a Super Bowl win and a QB1-caliber fantasy season. Not much has gone right for the Rams since then, though. Last season they lost their two best offensive players (Cooper Kupp and Stafford) and most of an offensive line that wasn’t playing particularly well, to begin with. Since then, the Rams have said goodbye to half of their starting defense, and they haven’t done much to improve on offense. Thus, Stafford’s dynasty stock is low.

However, there is reason to buy low on the Rams' veteran passer. One of those reasons is named "Kupp," and the other "McVay." Currently, the Rams are keeping both Kupp and Stafford, and the team’s lack of a first-round pick should mean they lean toward helping their veterans rather than replacing them this year. While there is a risk of injury or continued decline here, Stafford still carries high-end QB2 upside in the short-term and is worth several mid-round picks in Superflex dynasties.

Offer in Superflex: Two 2^nd round picks

Offer in Non-Superflex: Late 3^rd-round pick

Running Backs to Buy Post-Free Agency

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Objectively, Herbert was the best Bears running back over the past two seasons, but the team remained loyal to David Montgomery. This offseason Montgomery joined a division rival, though. The Bears responded by adding D’Onta Foreman on a modest free-agency deal, but he’s close to the RB cliff (he turns 27 this season) and adds little in the passing game. While Foreman will steal goal-line work, Herbert remains the more explosive option and a superior pass blocker.

Amongst running backs with at least 100 rush attempts last year, Herbert ranked sixth in Yards After Contact Per Attempt. He also ranked 15^th in rushes of 30+ yards, but every person ahead of him on that list received 70 or more rush attempts than Herbert did. Altogether, Herbert is an explosive player due for an increase in touches on a team that’s offensive line should be vastly improved over last year.

Offer in All Leagues: Two 2^nd round picks and a 3^rd

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

Mattison is the second and final repeat from our pre-free agency dynasty buys list. We are repeating our advice to buy him for two reasons. One, his situation hasn’t changed from last year, meaning many will consider his dynasty value to be the same as was last year (aka low). Two, his value will improve significantly if Dalvin Cook is traded or released.

As we stated last month, Mattison has shown top-ten fantasy potential when given starter-caliber touches. However, his fantasy stock remains low because he's still perceived as Cook's backup. There is significant smoke regarding a Cook trade or release, though. Minnesota has multiple glaring holes to fill in the Draft, and running back isn't one. If Cook does move on, Mattison could be the clear lead back in this offense.

Offer: Early 2^nd-round pick and a 4^th

Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles

Penny has fairly earned the label of "injury prone." When you miss 40 of a possible 82 regular season games in your career, it's reasonable to expect you will continue to get hurt. That said, the San Diego State product's injury history and age have driven his stock far lower than what his talent and current situation would normally command. Players like this are the epitome of "buy low."

For his career, Penny has averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per carry. He’s averaged 6+ yards per carry in each of the past two seasons, and last year he was first in YAC/ATT amongst running backs with 50+ carries. He now joins an Eagles team with the third-best run-blocking line in the NFL and a quarterback who excels at the read option. While Philly loves Kenneth Gainwell, Penny’s size and burst could earn him valuable touches in an explosive offense… while he’s healthy.

Offer: Late 2^nd-round pick

Wide Receivers to Buy Post-Free Agency

Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers

The latest reports have the Carolina Panthers drafting Bryce Young, the safest option in the class. That would be tremendous news for the Panthers’ #1 wide receiver… if they had one. Adam Thielen is an aging possession receiver who may be their de facto #1, but he is best suited as a #2. Meanwhile, D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault are third options at best. With no first-round pick in the next two drafts and multiple holes to fill, the Panthers could need more from Marshall than they ever have.

Marshall is a former quality prospect with good size and speed, but his production so far has disappointed. Last year he was largely used as a deep threat on a run-first team, averaging a 12.3 ADOT with a poor catch (59.6%) and target rate. That said, his inefficiency was largely the result of low probability routes (i.e., deep) and no volume. Marshall has a 3.8% drop rate when he gets good targets. Bryce Young should up the quality and volume of this passing offense immediately.

Offer: A 3^rd and a 4^th round pick

Justyn Ross, Kansas City Chiefs

As a freshman, Ross had first-round potential after shredding the Alabama defense on national television. Since then, injuries have plagued the former top recruit, ultimately forcing him to go undrafted and miss his entire rookie season. The talent and potential are still there, which is why many dynasty fans were on him last summer. Many bailed once he got hurt again, but Patrick Mahomes has endorsed Ross publicly and that means something. The Clemson product is available in nearly 50% of dynasties as of this writing.

Offer: Waiver Claim

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

Coming out of camp, Romeo Doubs was viewed as the best bet to fill the Davante Adams void last season. This was due to a lack of other healthy or young pass-catching options and a blistering offseason by the Nevada product, though Aaron Rodgers did temper expectations with several public slams. Doubs started the year with consistent volume and inconsistent play, though. The arrival of a healthy Christian Watson then neutered any hopes that Doubs would be a fantasy option as a rookie.

Thanks to a rough rookie year and the ascension of Watson, dynasty demand for Doubs is low. He could be the Packer who stands to gain the most from Rodgers leaving, though. Remember that Rodgers was repeatedly and openly critical of the former rookie. Meanwhile, Doubs and Jordan Love showed chemistry while Watson missed the entire pre-season. If Love leans on his history with Doubs early this year, it could lead to an uptick in targets and a rebound in fantasy value.

Offer: Early 3rd-round pick

Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns

This one may seem obvious, but there remains skepticism surrounding Moore in many fantasy circles. His sophomore season was marred by drama, trade chatter, and poor play. That said, he's still a young player who graded well above average in seven of his first thirteen professional games. The Browns are saying the right things early, too. They seem to view him as an integral part of their offensive future on an offense that could take a leap with Deshaun Watson available for a full season.

While the metrics on Moore aren’t always amazing, his drop rate as a rookie was solid. His film also showed a good head fake that helped him get open, a better-than-expected high point, and enticing skills after the catch. People were high on him last summer for good reason, so it’s worth seeing if anyone has given up on him and will sell low after one bad year.

Offer: Mid-2^nd round pick and a 4^th

Tight Ends to Buy Post-Free Agency

Dalton Kincaid, Utah (aka Pick 1.07 or 1.08)

This is cheating, I know. You can’t technically buy low on Kincaid because he’s not on a team yet, and it’s hard to buy low on a pick because the value varies so widely depending on the draft class and the league. With that said, hardly anyone is projecting Kincaid to go before 1.10 in rookie drafts, so acquiring 1.08 should assure you get him in most formats. The pick could also come relatively cheap in trades since most consider this an underwhelming rookie class after the top seven players are gone.

A vast majority of dynasty analysts have this former Ute ranked somewhere between the 15^th and 25^th best rookie, behind Michael Mayer and multiple receivers who carry similar statistical ceilings and floors to Kincaid. However, Mayer is ranked as TE1 on many NFL Draft boards because of his blocking, which doesn’t matter a lot in fantasy. Kincaid is a better receiver than Mayer, and his positional value makes him more valuable than Jordan Addison and Jalin Hyatt in my book.

Offer: Two high 2^nd round picks

Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers

Another Panther makes this list for most of the same reasons that Terrace Marshall did. We are projecting Bryce Young to be a Panther. We are also projecting him to be accurate, creative, and a catalyst for this offense to go aerial. If that happens, someone will need to catch those pretty passes. Hurst is as good as anyone for that role since he’s coming off a career year and projects to be a safety blanket for whomever his rookie passer is.

Offer in Non-TE Premium: 3^rd round pick

Offer in TE Premium: Mid-2^nd round pick

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Football Analysis