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"Thunder" Dan Palyo breaks down the first round of the NBA playoffs with his sports betting picks and advice for the Eastern Conference NBA postseason.
With the Miami Heat's victory last night over the Bulls, the matchups are all set for the first round of the NBA Playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Miami came back late to avoid losing a second straight play-in game and narrowly avoided being eliminated despite finishing as the 7th seed.
So when it was all said and done, we still got the top 8 teams in the conference into the playoffs, just with Miami and Atlanta swapping seeds. That means the Heat will now have to face the Bucks while the Hawks get to square off against the Celtics. Both teams will certainly have their work cut out for them and are heavy underdogs in those series.
But will all four of the top seeds advance or can we expect any upsets? That's what I am here to try to figure out! I'll give you a few betting angles while I am at it and my own series prediction. Let's jump right into things with our top-seeded Bucks against that the Miami Heat. Don't forget to check out my Western Conference predictions here, too!
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#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #8 Miami Heat
Season Series: Tied 2-2
Series Odds: Milwaukee (-1000), Miami (+650)
I will keep this one pretty short. Miami was very lucky to sneak into these playoffs. Chicago had them where they wanted with about 5 minutes to go and then just totally evaporated. It was hard to watch as someone who had money on the Bulls to cover and win as they just wilted. The Heat needed 30 points from Max Strus and another 32 from Jimmy Buckets to hold off a very flawed and pretty mediocre Chicago squad.
The Bucks are my pick to win the East this year, this team is loaded and built for a championship. I know there will be people out there who point to Miami's victory over Milwaukee in the ECF back in 2021, but this version of the Bucks is significantly better and has a healthy Khris Middleton along with a deep bench and the best player in the NBA - Giannis!
“We need a second one!” 💍
Giannis is ready for another playoff run! pic.twitter.com/0SxrSMG1f7
— NBA TV (@NBATV) April 8, 2023
Maybe Miami steals a game at home, but I expect the Bucks to handle them in relatively short order. I won't predict a total sweep, but I do think five games is the longest this series goes, so I am betting on it accordingly.
Betting Picks: Series Spread: Bucks -2.5 games (-150)
Series Prediction: Milwaukee 4-1
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Atlanta Hawks
Season Series: Boston leads 3-0
Series Odds: Atlanta (+650), Boston (-1000)
This is another series where I don't think anyone is giving the underdog a chance of a full series upset and for good reason. Boston handled Atlanta all three times this season and is easily a better overall team. If the Bucks don't win the championship this year, it's likely because the Celtics knocked them off in the ECF and won it instead.
Here's the thing about Atlanta - they actually are a really talented and deep team both offensively and defensively. They just never seem to be able to put it all together for any stretch of time. They had a number of quality wins this year against good teams like the Cavs, Warriors, Suns, Nuggets, Bucks, and Kings so the reputation they have for being a second-tier team that can't beat good teams is far from true.
The problem really is that they would often lose to some bad teams, and good teams just don't do that very often.
I think Atlanta will be up for this series and that they push Boston a little more than people expect. Trae Young is incredibly dangerous and the duo of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu on the interior is going to be a big problem for the aging Al Horford. I'm looking for an angle with some decent odds, so I am going to take the series going to a sixth game as my prediction, with Boston finally finishing off the upstart Hawks in game 6.
Betting Pick: Series Total Games over 5.5 (+140)
Series Prediction: Boston 4-2
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets
Season Series: Sixers lead 4-0
Series Odds: Philadelphia (-900), Brooklyn (+600)
The Sixers had a clean 4-0 sweep of the Nets this year, with two of those games being against the "Old Nets" when Kyrie and KD were still on the team. The other two games were a mixed bag as the "New Nets" hung with Philly and only lost by three points shortly after the trade deadline and then got waxed by 29 points in the other meeting.
This isn't a very exciting prediction (once again) but I don't see any reason to think that Philly doesn't dispense with the Nets in relatively short order in this series. I love the Mikal Bridges breakout in Brooklyn and yes, Spencer Dinwiddie is a nice player, as is Nicolas Claxton. But the trio of Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey is too much for this blue-chip Brooklyn team to overcome.
The Sixers know their window is closing fast and Harden has one foot out of the door already. Joel Embiid is a legit MVP candidate who is going to dominate when it matters the most. Brooklyn is scrappy enough to pick up a win, but they're not going to take down the Process and the Beard in this series - no way.
Betting Picks: Series Spread: Philadelphia -2.5 games (-150)
Series Prediction: Philly 4-1
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 New York Knicks
Season Series: New York leads 3-1
Series Odds: New York (+185), Cleveland (-210)
Am I worried as a Cavs fan about the Knicks in round one? Hell yeah, I am! The Knicks won the season series 3-1 and even knocked off the Cavs just a few weeks ago without Julius Randle. Jalen Brunson has been outstanding and the Knicks play some incredible defense. You have to admire what Coach Thibs did with this team this year considering so many people wrote them off as being any type of serious contender.
So I am not writing them off at all. But I can tell you this - the Cavs are the real deal. And Donovan Mitchell is a freaking superstar! As much as I was worried that he would upset the chemistry that the Cavs built last year with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen - he hasn't one bit and the truth is that they wouldn't be hosting a playoff series without him.
“We’re capable of a lot. The biggest thing is taking it one game at a time. We’ve got championship aspirations. I think every team in the playoffs do. For us, we gotta take care of business. It starts with tomorrow”
— Donovan Mitchell on the eve of Cavs-Knicks Game 1 pic.twitter.com/DvPEVHxcYf
— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) April 15, 2023
The other emerging star is Evan Mobley. In only his second season he's already asserted himself as a top-5 defensive player in the league and his offensive game continues to evolve. The Cavs simply have too much firepower and depth (they're bench of no-namers is sneaky good) to be ousted by the Knicks who have a great starting five and a stud sixth-man in Josh Hart, but not too much after that.
You all know by now I am homer, so you know I am not going against my Cavs here! Again, if I am looking for some positive odds, I am going to roll with the Cavs spread to win this thing in 6 games or less. Don't let me down, Donovan!
Betting Picks: Series Spread: Cavaliers -1.5 games (+105)
Series Prediction: Cleveland 4-2
Enjoy the games today and all weekend long!
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