2023 NBA Western Conference Playoffs Preview: Betting Picks and Predictions

April 15, 2023

"Thunder" Dan Palyo breaks down the first round of the NBA playoffs with his sports betting picks and advice for the Western Conference NBA postseason.

The Minnesota Timberwolves left no doubt about it last night as they thumped the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points last night in the final play-in game. Now they're set to take on the top-seeded Denver Nuggets as the 8th seed in the Western Conference.

So when it was all said and done, we still got the top 8 teams in the conference into the playoffs, and the seedings are identical to where the teams finished the regular season with the Lakers occupying the 7-seed and the T-Wolves being the 8-seed. The play-in games are fun and add some drama, but once again they didn't really affect the outcome of the final tournament teams.

I think the Western Conference is wide open this year, so you might see a few more upset predictions in this piece than in my Eastern Conference predictions here. Let's get it on with it and talk about some NBA playoff basketball!

#1 Denver Nuggets vs. #8 Minnesota Timberwolves

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Series Odds: Denver (-500), Minnesota (+370)

Let's just start right out of the gate and acknowledge that one of the Denver losses in this series was by 30 points in a game that Nikola Jokic did not play in. So a 2-2 season series doesn't mean all that much to me. But I will say that the Nuggets being "only" a -500 favorite in this series means something when you consider that Milwaukee and Boston are both -1000 to win their opening series in the East.

There's something about Denver that we just don't trust yet, right? They looked every bit like a title contender until early March when they lost four in a row. And they finished the season by losing five of their last seven games, too.

Now I am not calling for an 8-seed upset, I think Minnesota is a few pieces away from being a true contender. But this Minnesota team is going to pose some problems for Denver with their size and their offensive capabilities. Replacing D'Angelo Russell with a pass-first point guard like Mike Conley has brought some balance to this offense and allows KAT and Anthony Edwards to do their thing while Rudy Gobert cleans up the scraps. And Kyle Anderson is my sixth man of the year if he's still eligible because he started a lot of games due to various Minnesota injuries.

Let's cut to the chase. Denver should prevail, but Minnesota is a pretty darn good 8 seed now that they are fully healthy. Minnesota pushes this to 6 games before Denver finally prevails.

Betting Picks: Series Total Games OVER 5.5 (-110)

Series Prediction: Denver 4-2

#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series: Lakers lead 2-1

Series Odds: Lakers (+120), Grizzlies (-140)

This might be the most compelling series in the Western Conference, can we agree on that? The Lakers battled all the way back from a terrible start to make the play-in tournament and then held off the Wolves in OT to secure the #7 seed. And I bet they are glad that they did because I think they match up a lot better here against the Grizzlies than they would against Denver.

Memphis was a team that I thought could win it all earlier in the year. But that was before a few things happened that changed my mind. Injuries to Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams have really wrecked their interior depth which was once one of the strengths of their team. And then the Ja Morant saga near the end of the year really threw this team into turmoil on top of the injuries as well.

Memphis lost four of their last seven games and is coming into this first round with plenty of questions surrounding their team. I used to really like watching this group of young players, but maybe it's just the fake tough guy stuff that Dillon Brooks tries to pull off or his dirty fouls that have turned me off to this squad. It feels like they want to tell everyone how good they are, not show us. And the bad news for them is they're getting a living legend in the first round, LeBron James, who has some statements he'd like to make, too.

LeBron James in Year 20

• #1 in Jersey Sales
• #1 in Views on all platforms

still the face of the league 👑 pic.twitter.com/tS3hLUbMVi

— ⁶ (@SpeakContext) April 13, 2023

I'm not sure how you feel about LeBron or that I care that much. I have had a love/hate relationship with him myself, as a Cavs fan. But I will never deny his greatness or stopped being impressed by what he can do on a basketball court. Oh yeah, and the Lakers have a generational talent playing next to him in Anthony Davis. AD is going to be a massive problem for Memphis in this series with his size and versatility. The rest of the pieces around these two guys have fallen into place quite nicely down the stretch with some unlikely heroes such as Austin Reaves emerging. I usually like hating the Lakers, but I can't help but find myself rooting for them as underdogs. And I think they have a puncher's chance at winning this series. I'll even lay some money down on that happening.

Betting Picks: Lakers to win series (+120)

Series Prediction: Lakers 4-3

#3 Sacramento Kings vs. #6 Golden State Warriors

Season Series: Warriors lead 3-1

Series Odds: Kings (+220), Warriors (-275)

The Warriors are the rare six-seed that also happen to be pretty significant favorites to win their series. The defending champs battled injuries all season and rested their players more often than some people would have liked. But they come into this series healthy and ready to go as they even have Andrew Wiggins back in the fold after he missed a large chunk of games being away from the team for personal reasons.

The Warriors are good, I won't argue that, but are they still great? Or has their window shut on a chance at a championship? At no point during this season did Golden State have that same sparkle in their eye, as they did last year, that made you think "Wow, this team is amazing."

I think the real story in this series is about the Kings. This is a franchise that has been clowned by many for years for making the wrong decisions and bad trades. But they took a huge risk in trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis and it actually paid off as Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox anchored this squad all year and led them to 48 wins and a third-place finish in an incredibly competitive conference.

I asked Domantas Sabonis about Keegan Murray.

Domas dropped an interesting line; "He's going to be guarding one of the best players in the league." 👀 pic.twitter.com/tT63rmXVOJ

— Matt George (@MattGeorgeSAC) April 12, 2023

Add in an outstanding rookie like Keegan Murray and some really good role players like Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes and you have a team that is much better than a lot of casual NBA fans may realize. Sure, they could get run over by the Warriors I am not saying that's not within the range of outcomes. But I think we see them play well in this series and push Golden State a lot harder than people expect them to. I'd love to see them win it but for now I will just wager on them taking it to seven games.

Betting Picks: Series Spread: Kings +1.5 games (+125)

Series Prediction: Blazers 4-3

#4 Phoenix Suns vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Series Odds: Clippers (+370), Suns (-500)

This might seem weird, but I have really 100% faith in the Suns to finish off the Clippers here in short order. While the 4 vs. 5 seed matchup is usually one of the closer matchups, I don't really see it that way at all and neither does Vegas as the Suns are -500 to win this series.

I am going to go out on a limb and say they win it in five games, too. Kevin Durant gives this Phoenix team a real shot at contending for a title this year and Phoenix has such great balance in their offense now with Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton working the pick-and-roll while Devin Booker and KD are knockdown shooters who can get their own shots or shoot off the pass.

Paul George is likely going to miss the first game of this series and it's no guarantee that he plays at all. I am sure he would love to play, but he simply might not be ready to come back and the team has said they won't rush him back too soon just for the playoffs.

It almost feels like the Clippers know they are sunk and they're ready to regroup for next year and give it another run with Kawhi + PG13 with some new members of their supporting cast. I love Phoenix to win this in 5 and I won't be surprised if they sweep. The Clippers without one of their top two players are a largely average team at best.

Betting Picks: Series Spread: Suns -2.5 games (+115)

Series Prediction: Suns 4-1

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