RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway on Sunday for what's going to be the final race on the track's current two-mile configuration. It may return in the future as a reconstructed short track, but NASCAR sold off the bulk of the track site to real estate developers.
This week's race is also impacted by some weather that led to Cup and Xfinity qualifying being canceled on Saturday. So, instead of the lineup being determined by speed, it's determined by a formula based around Daytona last week, and because Daytona was its usual crash fest, we have a starting lineup with some really good cars at the end of it.
Below is my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Pala Casino 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 2/26/23 at 3:45 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Chase Elliott
Starts 33rd - DK: $10,500, FD: $13,500
There's going to be a common theme in this week's article, which is fast cars that got caught up in issues at Daytona and now are coming from the back this week because qualifying was rained out.
We'll start with Chase Elliott, who rolls off from 33rd on Sunday. Elliott's never won at Fontana, but he has three top 10s here, and he had a chance to win this race last year, as he led 12 laps early on. But Elliott was involved in two separate cautions, which doomed him to a 26th-place finish.
He'll have to work through traffic, but considering he also led 26 laps at the closest comparable track to Auto Club—Michigan International Speedway—last year says to me that Elliott should be competitive Sunday, even if he'll have a ways to go once the green flag flies.
Tyler Reddick
Starts 35th - DK: $9,100, FD: $9,000
There won't be many weeks where we'll have this many place differential guys, so I'm taking advantage of that. I do think there's value in grabbing a Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, or Christopher Bell in this salary range, but Reddick has more upside because of his starting spot.
Reddick, driving for Richard Childress at the time, was the dominant driver in this race one year ago, leading a race-high 90 laps. No one else led more than 28. Unfortunately for Reddick, the No. 8 car was caught up in a crash with a little under 50 to go, and he wound up finishing one lap down in 24th.
Now, he's in a 23XI car that finished eighth here a year ago with Kurt Busch driving. Reddick should be able to gain 20-25 positions on Sunday.
Bubba Wallace
Starts 18th - DK: $8,700, FD: $7,500
I've got a lot of chalky picks in this article, so let's go a different way here with a driver who isn't as high in projections as other guys priced near him: Bubba Wallace.
Wallace doesn't have a great track record here at Auto Club, with his 19th-place finish last year representing his best result here. But he's been good at Michigan, a track that compares decently to Auto Club, with Wallace finishing second in last season's race there, leading 22 laps. And that's really what this play's about: a driver who's been good at another two-mile track, who drives for a strong team, and who's likely to be underutilized this weekend in DFS lineups.
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Erik Jones
Starts 34th - DK: $7,700, FD: $8,000
Jones is going to be a really chalky play on Sunday, so you might want to go a little lighter on him in GPPs than you might want to, but he's definitely a must-play in cash games.
Auto Club has historically been a pretty good track for Jones, as he's finished in the top 20 in every one of his Cup Series starts here, capped off by a third-place finish here last year. He led 18 laps in that race, the first time that Jones had led laps at this track in a Cup Series race.
Obviously, saying "he was third here last year so he'll have speed this year" isn't a lock, but the place differential upside makes it so that Jones doesn't have to be as good as he was here last season. A solid top-15 run would be enough here.
Chase Briscoe
Starts 31st - DK: $7,500, FD: $6,500
We finish out our collection of guys starting 30th or worse with Chase Briscoe, and the argument for playing Chase Briscoe is...well, it's the same argument for playing those other guys, basically.
Briscoe spent some time out front in this race last year, leading 20 laps before finishing 16th. He led two different times during the race. He's also run a pair of races here in the Xfinity Series, finishing fifth in his first start at Auto Club and 19th in his second, though he led 16 laps in that one.
While Briscoe's going to wind up rostered in a lot of lineups, I think he might go a little under the radar in comparison to the other guys from this sub-30th starting range. The DFS Army projections we use project Briscoe at 36% rostered on DK and 25% on FD, while Jones is at 44% and 35%, respectively.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 23rd - DK: $6,100, FD: $6,000
I have to admit that I don't fully understand the pricing on Ty Gibbs. He's in a Joe Gibbs Racing car, yet he's $100 cheaper on DK than Noah Gragson, who is in a Legacy Motor Club car that isn't as strong, and he's cheaper than Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger. He's only $200 more than Justin Haley!
On one hand, I get it. Gibbs hasn't really done a ton in Cup so far, but he also was pushed into duty last year by the Kurt Busch injury. Now, he's full-time, on a team that's built around him.
Anyway, Gibbs was 13th in his only Xfinity start here, and then he won the Xfinity race at Michigan last season, leading 54 laps in that one. He should have decent speed and I think a top-15 finish would be an attainable result for this team.
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