The Cut List – Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 15

December 14, 2022

Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves in Week 15 (12/13/2022). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.

We are officially in fantasy football playoff week! Congratulations to all of you who have made the dance. Making the playoffs is just the first step of our ultimate goal, which is becoming the league champion.

That task doesn't stop now that we're in the playoffs. It's three more weeks of grinding and that starts here, in Week 15 with our waiver wire claims and our cuts.

Let’s look at some of the players you can safely send to the waiver wire for Week 15. We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 15. As always if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.

Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 15?

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – 69% Rostered

This may seem like an overreaction to one bad game for Derek Carr, but boy was that Week 14 terrible! He finished with 137 scoreless yards and two interceptions against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense. He finished the night with just 2.58 points. If you're reading this and wondering why Carr finds himself on the Cut List after one bad game after what had been a really good five-game stretch, it's because you can't trust him.

Carr has been so up and down this season. He has five games with under 15 points and two games with under three. Carr has just two games over 20 but has not scored more than 20.5 points in a single game all season. Fantasy managers are best treating the veteran signal-caller as the streamer he is. Through 14 games, he's averaging just 14.9 points per game, which ranks just 20th among quarterbacks. That is, by definition, a streamer. Now, what is a streamer? A streamer is a player fantasy managers do not start on a weekly basis, but rather only when the matchup is right.

In Week 15, Carr and the Raiders play against the New England Patriots. They allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Las Vegas goes on the road in Week 16 to play against the Steelers, who through 14 weeks, has been a generous matchup this season. They've given up the ninth-most points to quarterbacks this season, but star pass-rusher, T.J. Watt has only played six games this season and is now healthy. Then in Week 17, Carr will have to face the 49ers who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season.

That's two absolutely brutal matchups with one plus one sandwiched in between. However, that positive matchup is on the road where the Steelers will have their best defensive player available, whom they've missed the majority of the season. What matchup will you feel comfortable starting Carr?

Running Backs to Cut in Week 15?

Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos – 77% Rostered

Latavius Murray has been incredibly boring since signing with Denver midway through the 2022 season, but he's been given the volume he's needed to maintain fantasy relevance. Through eight games with the Broncos, Murray is averaging 12.6 carries per game and has just three games without double-digit carries. Including receptions, Murray has at least 10 touches in every single game. He also has over 45 scrimmage yards in six out of eight games. He's the definition of boring. He only has more than 65 scrimmage yards in two games.

In eight games with Denver, he has scored touchdowns in three of them. In his five-scoreless games, Murray has averaged 7.2 half-PPR points. In his three games where he found the end zone, he's averaged 12.3 points. Some reading this will argue you can't cut a starting running back getting 12+ touches per game and if you went zero-running back, I get it, but otherwise, Murray is a cuttable player. There's just no upside here as evidenced by his 12.3 PPG average when he scores a touchdown.

To make matters worse, his playoff schedule is brutal. In Week 15, he plays against the Cardinals who have allowed just the 19th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Denver's opponents in Weeks 16 and 17 are the Rams and the Chiefs. The Rams allow the ninth-fewest points to running backs this year. While the Chiefs' defense has been generous to running backs this season, the game script is unlikely to be a positive one for Murray. They'll likely be forced to throw early and often.

Murray has just two or fewer catches in four out of his eight games with Denver this season. In fact, in three games, he actually finished with negative receiving yards, so fantasy managers can't really count on being bailed out by a negative game script with increased volume in the passing game. Murray just played the Chiefs this past weekend and finished with just 4.6 half-PPR points. Two poor matchups and one that is highly unlikely to give Murray a game script he can be successful in.

Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 15?

Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens – 49% Rostered

In Devin Duvernay's first three games of the season, he scored 39.9 half-PPR points. He was averaging 13.3 PPG, largely off the back of three touchdowns, which he scored on just 10 touches. From Weeks 4–14, he's averaged just 5.39 half-PPR points. Duvernay's last touchdown in Week 3, was the last time a Baltimore Raven receiver scored a touchdown.

Since the team's Week 10 bye, Duvernay has just 13 targets and he's seemingly lost his No. 1 receiver spot to teammate Demarcus Robinson. Robinson has 27 targets since Week 11 and then, of course, there's still Mark Andrews. Lamar Jackson injured his knee in Week 13 and he might return until Week 16. Tyler Huntley left Week 14 early due to a concussion and at this time, fantasy managers need to assume he's on the wrong side of questionable right now. Considering the significant decline in targets and the questions at quarterback, Duverney doesn't need to be rostered, not even in deeper leagues.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs – 44% Rostered

There were some fantasy managers that thought Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes would unlock something that Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers failed to do. That hasn't exactly played itself out. Through 13 weeks, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has just three games with double-digits and not a single game with over 14 half-PPR points. He also has five games with under three half-PPR points. There was optimism that MVS would be in line for a bigger target share in Kansas City since he'd no longer have to compete with Davante Adams. That also hasn't been true. He has seven games with four targets or fewer.

To make matters even worse for MVS's fantasy prospects over the next three weeks is the awful schedule he's faced with. They play the Texans in Week 15, who have allowed the seventh-fewest points to receivers this season. In Weeks 16 and 17, the Chiefs play the Seahawks and Broncos. They have allowed the eighth-fewest and second-fewest points respectively to receivers this season.

Tight Ends to Cut in Week 15?

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – 76% Rostered

As I glanced over the roster percentages of tight ends on Yahoo! looking for anyone over 50% rostered who could be cut, I found myself coming back to Tyler Higbee time and time again. Sure, I could’ve gone with Darren Waller at 71%, but he said he’s going to be back this week and if you go back and look at his utilization from the first four weeks of the season, which you can find here, if you’ve held him this long, you certainly can’t cut him the week before he’s set to return to the field. Hunter Henry is at 51% rostered, but that’s just a spike due to the Patriots playing the Cardinals, which brings us back to Hunter Henry.

I do not believe anyone with anything vested left in the fantasy football season is rostering Tyler Higbee. Whether that be you’re in the playoffs or maybe there’s money on the line in the consolation bracket. It doesn’t matter which, but if you are playing for anything, anything at all, get Higbee off your roster.

Since Week 6, he has averaged 3.25 half-PPR points per game. In his last eight games, he’s been held to under three points six times. This includes two goose eggs. If you’ve made it this far with Higbee on your roster… well, it’s kind of like if you just randomly throw up a half-court shot in a basketball game and make it. Your coach is going to have to say “nice shot”, but never, ever do that again.

On the Hot Seat

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – 93% Rostered

Devin Singletary was on the hot seat after Week 13 where he played just 44% of the team’s snaps. More importantly, in that Week 13 contest, he received fewer carries than James Cook, ran fewer routes than James Cook, had fewer targets than James Cook, and had fewer receptions than James Cook. Singletary was also solidly out-produced in that contest with Cook finishing with 105 total yards to Singletary’s 51. Week 13 was a major change from what had been the norm in the Buffalo backfield. That drastic switch resulted in Singletary being on the hot seat.

Week 14 did nothing to change that either. He’s still right where he was last week. Singletary played just 29 snaps in Week 14 and Cook played 24. We are still talking about a 50/45 split in playing time. While Singletary did take back the lead in touches, it wasn't nearly as significant of a gap as he was accustomed to at the beginning of the season.

From Weeks 1–12, Singletary averaged 14.1 touches per game and Cook averaged just five. He almost had Cook tripled up. In Week 14, the difference was nine touches for Singletary and five for Cook.

While Singletary still should remain on fantasy rosters with the Buffalo backfield in a state of flux, fantasy managers cannot start him right now until something changes.

Hold

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – 81% Rostered

Diontae Johnson has made the Cut List in the past. Having 113 targets with zero touchdowns and averaging just under 50 yards per game will do that. He has just three double-digit games this season and his best fantasy performance of the year is 12.4 half-PPR points. That's his best. Prior to Week 14, he was on a nine-week stretch of single-digit performances. He had made the Cut List because Johnson simply has not had any upside. That could still very well be the case, but if you've held him this long, you might as well continue holding.

Rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett left Week 14 with a concussion, which put Mitchell Trubisky back under center. He finished with 11.2 half-PPR points. Interestingly enough, Johnson has finished with double-digit points in three of four games in which Trubisky has thrown at least 10 passes. With Pickett on the wrong side of questionable, Johnson could get Trubisky under center in Week 15 and he's been at his best this season with him at quarterback.

He also has two great matchups in Weeks 15 and 16. This upcoming week Pittsburgh plays the Carolina Panthers, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. In Week 16, they play the Raiders who have allowed the 13th-most points to opposing receivers. With Trubisky likely under center this upcoming weekend and a positive matchup, maybe this will be the game where Johnson finally finds the end zone.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills – 61% Rostered

We've already talked about Devin Singletary above in the "On the Hot Seat" section, but Cook should remain on fantasy rosters. While he didn't get the increase in touches many fantasy managers were expecting or maybe hoping, the snap distribution remained positive for Cook.

From Weeks 1–12, Singletary played 72% of the snaps to Cook's 17%. However, in the last two weeks, it's been Singletary at 46% and Cook at 42%. Fantasy managers cannot start either play right now, but both should remain on fantasy rosters.

Fantasy managers should be willing to hold onto players in ambiguous backfields and right now, Buffalo's backfield qualifies. If neither player separates, they'll both continue being irrelevant for fantasy. However, it's quite possible the second-round rookie eventually creates separation. That upside is worth hanging onto.

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