RADIO
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. Hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate. We have ranked the top 20 golfers for the majority of stats that should matter here this week.
I have put in many hours to understand which KFT graduates will be most successful on the PGA Tour and even wrote up the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which has a statistical profile of each KFT graduate. A lot of these golfers will be in the field this week, with the majority of them lacking trustworthy data only having played about eight rounds of PGA Tour golf. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Kitchen (Weather Conditions)
We are in Sea Island, Georgia, where the coastal wind blows. There is a decent chance we encounter wave advantages this week again. It also looks like it is going to be rather cool, with temperatures not really getting much warmer than 70. We may see temperatures breaking par quite a lot if this forecast holds true.
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside, Plantation): Par: 70, Yardage: 7,005 Greens: Bermuda
The Model Settings
The Model Rankings:
The Usual (Course History)
Course History (Seaside):
Course History (Plantation):
Comp courses: TPC Twin Cities, Detroit GC, Innisbrook, TPC Deere Run, Port Royal
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peek at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over this season. If a player does not have any rounds but has stats, he gained those strokes at a non- PGA Tour event. I have also included the number of rounds each person has played to help you determine how significant that stat should be. Less rounds = less significant.
Chefs' recommendation: Approach
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting this season.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
Any statistic that does not have a pink title is a baseline stat and is weighted 90% (2022) and 10% (2023) by season. The KFT statistics have been watered down by 15% in order to reflect the increased difficulty of the PGA Tour.
Chefs' recommendation: Accuracy
Top 20 strokes gained off the tee
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King! Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Fairway 125-200 proximities
Top 20 in baseline strokes gained approach
Top 20 in proximity from the fairway
Top 20 in proximity from the rough
Scrambled Eggs (Around The Green)
Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs best? Lets find out.
Chefs Recommendation: Skip this meal. If we are eating this kind of food this week, we are probably not doing too well.
The 20 best around the green
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Each week we visit a green surface that has specific grass. Taylor Montgomery is easily the best putter in this field right now, but we can expect his numbers to regress a little as he had an outlier putting performance at the Fortinet, gaining 10+ strokes on the green, a feat only three other golfers achieved all of last season.
Also, not enough rounds have been played on Paspalum green's so not going to include those this week.
Chefs Recommendation: Putting from 5-15 feet
The 20 best putters in the field.
Top 20 putting from 5-15 feet
The 20 putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: BoB%
Top 20 scorers on easy courses
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie Filter (Above Average in Six Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these guys appear to be above average in all six key categories that were recommended by the chef.
- Accuracy
- Recent Approach
- Baseline FW 125-200 proximities
- Birdie or Better %
- Putting on Bermuda Greens
- Putting 5-15 feet
Hopefully this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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