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Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson. I'm coming up from the baseball world to gasp for air - and grabbing an NFL DFS piece. Hopefully, I will do this weekly moving forward!
What you'll get in this piece is an early or mid-week look at the week two projections. I have a decent little NFL projection model going and it's pretty good at picking out some of these strong DFS plays.
We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, September 18th. This analysis and picks will get stronger as we get deeper into the season as more data and clarity comes to the front. Let's dive into it!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Notable QB's not on the slate:
Those are the first, second, third, and fifth-highest projected QBs on the slate by my model, so we have an opportunity here to pay down at QB.
Now, if you don't want to pay down at QB, the man for you is:
Lamar Jackson ($7,400) vs. Dolphins
Lamar threw the ball 30 times in week one but had just 17 completions. The good news was this his average depth of pass attempt led the slate (12 yards). He threw for three touchdowns, which was pretty key for his fantasy day since he only ran for 17 yards on six attempts. I wouldn't expect him to be under 20 yards rushing again. The biggest appeal with Lamar will always be the solid floor of points he offers with the rushing and passing ability he possesses. He's the top QB on the slate if we aren't considering the price, but of course, we are considering the price, which makes these names very interesting for week two.
Trey Lance ($5,700) vs. Seahawks
Lance had a pretty miserable week one against the Bears. There is reason to forgive him for that, as the weather was just abysmal. That led to a price drop on Lance, and now we can have him for just $5,700 on this slate without a ton to love at Quarterback.
I'm not a huge #FootballGuy, so I'm not going to make predictions about how the loss of Elijah Mitchell affects Lance, but it's certainly possible that it will result in a few more carries for him - which is the main reason we like him for fantasy. He ran the ball 13 times in week one, a large number, and turned that into 54 yards. The projection on him this week is about eight carries for 42 yards and about a 33% chance at a touchdown. If he can do that and have even a decent game through the air, he's going to smash the price tag.
Daniel Jones ($5,100) vs. Panthers
Digging out a decent QB score for $5,000 is a huge boon for any DFS lineup, and Jones could offer us that this week. He also has a little bit of rushing upside, and he carried it six times for 25 yards in week one. He only threw the ball 22 times but was decent with those tosses with a 77% completion rate and two touchdowns, but the ADoT was low at 5.5. It's always possible that the Giants completely dud offensively, which is never what you want for the QB, and it's also possible that all of the damage is done by Saquon Barkley. All things considered, Jones projects pretty well here.
Other QBs projecting well: Matthew Stafford vs. Falcons, Derek Carr vs. Cardinals
DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900) vs. Giants
It was a really disappointing 2022 debut for CMC, who scored just 15.7 DraftKings points. That lackluster score seemed to mostly be due to the troubles the Panthers had moving the ball, and that's certainly a concern moving forward as well. However, McCaffrey handled 10 of the 13 running back carries and saw four targets on his 21 routes run. It wasn't the typical elite usage we see from McCaffrey, but it's still really good stuff and there's no reason to think he won't be the usual workhorse RB we've come to know.
The best part of all of this is that the low score kept his price down below $9,000. Comparatively, Jonathan Taylor's price came way up to $9,900. CMC's projection is right there with Taylor's, his floor is higher, and you get him for $1,000 cheaper.
Saquon Barkley ($7,300) vs. Panthers
Barkley has the third-highest projection on the slate and the second-best value mark by my model. He posted league-best usage in week two in plenty of measures, with his 18 carries and seven targets. He showed his home-run hitting upside with a 68-yard tote, and he added a touchdown and a two-point conversion. What a day. You could certainly argue that he should be a $8,500 back right now, but we can get him for just $7,300 for at least one more week.
Darrell Henderson ($5,700) vs. Falcons
Henderson is the model's top value running back, projecting for 16.6 points at this price. The problem here is that we can't be as confident with his usage given the presence of Cam Akers. It is a decent bet that Akers just isn't healthy enough to carry a significant part of the load, but it's also quite possible that they are just easing him in and he'll slowly take away usage from Henderson.
All we know for sure right now is that Henderson consumed 13 of the Rams' 17 running back carries and added five targets. He's a capable back in a good offense, and if we're projecting him for anything close to the usage he had in week one, this is a great play against Atlanta.
Chase Edmonds ($5,200) vs. Ravens
Edmonds was handed the ball 12 times and caught all four of his targets in week one, showing that he's for sure the lead man in Miami. The downside is that the Dolphins were very pass-heavy in that first week, leading the league in pass rate over expectation. That tampers down his projection a bit, but it's not too often we get a bell cow-ish running back at this price. The Ravens are tough to score fantasy points against given how much clock they use, but Edmonds is considerable at this price.
Other RBs projecting well: Joe Mixon vs. Cowboys, Swift vs. Commanders, Fournette vs. Saints
DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers
This is the position we really have to nail in PPR, and we saw that in week one with so many huge scores from the league's best receivers.
Cooper Kupp ($9,900) vs. Falcons
He is tied with Taylor as the most expensive piece on the slate, but for good reason. We all know what Kupp did last year, and he certainly picked up right where he left off in week one. The Super Bowl MVP went for 13 catches, 128 yards, and a touchdown on his 15 targets. He is probably the safest asset on the slate here, although you could argue that the price is overly prohibitive here. If you only pull a 15-20 from Kupp, that's going to be pretty tough for your lineup overall - but again, few players have safer floors here.
Davante Adams ($8,600) vs. Cardinals
He's the only other wide receiver projecting over 20, so I wanted to include him here. There is definitely something to be said for not worrying as much about price-considered value with these top studs because the floor and ceilings are so important. Anyways, Adams looked just fine in his first game away from Green Bay, leading the league with 17 targets. He also had a 10.4 ADoT, which is a pretty huge number given he was peppered with so many targets. That led him o put up 177 air yards, another league-leading number.
It seems right now that Adams will continue to be a legitimate WR1, and you can have him way cheaper than Kupp this week.
Ja'Marr Chase ($8,000) vs. Cowboys
The bronze medal wide receiver is Chase, who went for 16 targets in week one. That was majorly helped by the nature of that game, as the Bengals ran 96 plays - a number they are unlikely to replicate again this entire season. That said, his 108 air yards and 66 routes run are elite marks and we know how good this guy is.
Bonus: Tee Higgins would be a great play if he is cleared, and Tyler Boyd will be firmly in play as well if he's not.
Brandin Cooks ($6,000) vs. Broncos
He's the top value on the model at just $6,000. He continued to do what he does, racking up tons of targets (12) and air yards (131). Also in Cooks fashion, he was somewhat inefficient on that usage with just seven catches and 82 yards with no touchdowns. The floor is shaky here given the offense he plays on, but the ceiling is outrageous for this price tag. He's a superb GPP play.
DJ Moore ($5,700) vs. Giants
Moore is the second best value on the board by my projections, and yeah - this price seems pretty weird. Moore doesn't have a ton of upside, and rarely gets red zone looks, but he's been one of the most consistent and reliable fantasy receivers of the last handful of years. He saw six targets in week one but caught just three of them for 47 yards as the Panthers' offense struggled in Baker Mayfield's team debut. You would have to imagine that things get better for them as Mayfield get his land legs, and Mayfield's veteran presence and accuracy should, in theory, boost Moore's profile. I don't think he'll be under $6,000 for long - so we can jump on here especially in cash lineup builds.
Christian Kirk ($5,700) vs. Colts
A dozen targets for the Jaguars' new receiver. He went off for 117 yards, but couldn't find the endzone. It seems like Kirk is going to be a very popular target of Trevor Lawrence's, and this $5,700 price tag probably won't stick around for long. The Colts' defense is a tougher one to face, but the price and ceiling outweigh that, making Kirk a good play in all formats.
Nico Collins ($4,100) vs. Broncos
Lots of people thought Collins would do more than he did in week one, seeing just three targets and catching two balls for 26 yards. That was disappointing. He did run 32 routes, the second-most on the team, and posted a strong 11.3 ADoT. It's a risky play, as is any wide receiver priced like this, but he's a viable punt given the salary and how much he's on the field.
Other WRs projecting well: Mike Evans vs. Saints, Allen Robinson vs. Falcons, Julio Jones vs. Saints, Hunter Renfrow vs. Cardinals
DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends
Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert are off the slate, weakening the field a bit. Let's look at some of the best tight ends in the projections.
Mark Andrews ($6,400) vs. Dolphins
A pretty disappointing week one for Andrews as the wide receivers did a ton of damage, but he saw seven targets and a great 14.1 ADoT. It's a little tougher to pay up at tight end on this slate, but Andrews upside is unmatched at the position here.
Tyler Higbee ($4,200) vs. Falcons
He quietly seeped up 11 targets in week one, although it's hard to imagine that would keep going that way given what we saw from his last year and the addition of Allen Robinson. That said, Robert Woods has departed so it is a bit of a new-look offense, and maybe Higbee will take up more of the Woods role than Robinson will. We don't know for sure, but we do know that a tight end at $4,200 coming off a double-digit target game is pretty pleasurable.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,700) vs. Commanders
Seven targets in week one, and we saw last year how big this guy's ceiling is. The projections prefer Higbee straight away, but Hockenson is always in play for GPPs.
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